12-30-2010: Year End Special - back to back analysis of PSE vs DOW

DOW jones and the U.S. Market hitting new highs, but this new highs give a negative Divergence for the MACD and RSI of DOW Jones index, as well as S&P and Nasdaq. Meaning that there is a chance that the gains are only for the holiday season. Volume decreased also for the past weeks.

Time will tell if these Negative Divergence may extend to gains or means a correction for the Q1 of 2011.





PSE Market has been having a slowdown since its Early November peak moving up and down, but forming a good possible breakout.

The inverse Head and Shoulder pattern (if successful) tells us an upside of the 52week high of 44xx. Or will the Negative divergence signal of the U.S. market will decouple the break-away of our PSE market and negate the formed inverse H&S.

Good luck and Godbless for 2011 !

12-30-2010 : Last Trading Day in the PH

Happy Holidays !

No definite movements from the Local Stock market and the US, asian markets.

Continuous net UP of the DOW Jones helped us managed to extend the holiday gains but near RESISTANCE LEVELS.

MPI looks like a clear breakout from the 3.5 level

The Banks are obviously joining the window dressing period, i had to short some banks due to its straight gains :)

Overall, its a good xmas and holiday to everyone! Good luck to next year and be Thankful that we had a wonderful blessing this year.

Transactions:
Short Term:
Asian Equity (local - ING asia pacific fund)
90%- cash out
10% - equity

PSE Market
Shorted some of the big banks (59.8x and 75.x) and some of the Properties Sector (2.5x and 1.37).
Shorted MPI also, but managed to have a good breakout :)


Medium Term:
Asian Equity (local - ING asia pacific fund)
95% - equity
5% -cash out

12-26-2010: Xmas post and the xmas rally

Merry Merry xmas to all!

This yuletide season of the yr, people usually dont tend to think of punishing the stocks usually the short sellers.

I expect this slow but sure gains to hit until the few days of the year or early first week January. Merry merry xmas to all and all the gains you have gathered for this prosperous year! Happy Holidays!

... On the sad side, I still am confident that we may see a greater correction after this christmas season. We may seek of hitting 11600-11800 for the DOW, and expected correction of 10800-11000 this Q1 of 2011. I've uploaded the graph of my personal forecast for the short term for better view.

Personal trades: i've been short selling and profit taking of some of the PSE stocks and the Asian market equities.

Happy HOlidays!

12-17-2010 : Getting weaker and weaker

12-17-2010 : Getting weaker and weaker

U.S. markets getting .30% to .1% gain everyday, good or bad? Its good in some ways, but it shows weakness especially like the scenario today, of the fresh breakout above 10400 (52 week) which is weak in creating new highs.

I am AFRAID but Its about time or around end of the month or max of 1^st week of January before we see the 5-10% bigger correction than what we had last November. I am still trying to pray that there is a xmas rally, (kahit hngang dec 25 lang, kasi ang baba na natin PSE compared to other countries.) As early as now, me too is trying to get out of the market as of this moment. And reentering in 1-2mos when there is a good correction.

I highlighted in Pink the possible movement of the DOW of target 10400-10700 ( 5-10%) correction. Possible reasons: MACD getting negative divergence, RSI getting negative divergence also.

Correction is healthy, yet we don’t want correction to hit our gains. Be careful.

PSE market.

“I am AFRAID but Its about time or around end of the month or max of 1^st week of January before we see the 5-10% bigger correction than what we had last November. I am still trying to pray that there is a xmas rally, (kahit hngang dec 25 lang, kasi ang baba na natin PSE compared to other countries.) As early as now, me too is trying to get out of the market as of this moment. And reentering in 1-2mos when there is a good correction. “

Last month, I still believe 5k or 5.5k is attainable in 2011. But today, I am still realizing and eating the “SAYANG” of what the massive rally we got, we should learn how to know if we are in a bubble. And now it popped, everyone’s hurt, and still huring IF DOW gets the expected correction.

TIPS: Slowdown on buying, especially on the Short term downtrend indiv stocks, better short some if there will be a XMAS rally. On the brighter side, if we breakout the pink downtrend line, 2011 will be a very good yr maxing of around 4500-4700 in 12 mos.

SHORT TERM DOWNTREND: almost all properties, almost banks, some conglomerates

Consolidating: POWER

THESE ARE JUST GUIDES TO THE MARKET. YOU MAY OPT TO DO YOUR VERY OWN TRADES.

Dec 7, 2010 :uptrend continues

SHORT TERM / MEDIUM TERM: Technical Analysis - EW

Global markets found a bottom last week, and looks to have a good rally til earliest of Dec 4th week, and longest would be Jan-Feb. But i do suggest this could be only until Dec 4th week to 1st week Jan.

After the said Dec rally, correction of up to 5-10% will be encountered, after that, bull market resumes.

Looking at the Elliot Wave analysis, quoting the blog of Caldaro, "As a result of these fibonacci relationships we are now projecting this uptrend should end within the 1291-1313 pivot range in January 2011."

Fearless forecast and figures:

U.S. hourly charts point to some correction due to its negative divergence, and may correct to less than 3%, overall:

DOW: target rally of up to 11400-12000 before the correction

PSE: yrend, 4300-4450, might visit 4500 when DOW peaks, maybe Dec to early Jan also

Technical Explanation:

We will be ending the Primary Wave 3, Intermediate Wave 1 this Dec-Jan which is making the 5-10% correction as stated above.

Downtrend of PSE Market

Short term : downtrend
Medium term; Uptrend

While U.S. is breaking out of range and Short term, medium term = UPTREND, and China getting 2.8% boost yesterday, PSE looks very very weak and acting on its short term downtrend range.

Looks like we will not get any xmas rally after all if we continue to consolidate downwards (3900-4150), must breakout of 4200 level to get back to the old 4500 High next year (possible next yr pa).

Local Property Sector is also short term downtrend, which makes FLI, MEG, VLL, SMPH, RLC, ALI sleeping stocks this xmas. (must break out of its downtrend lines to trend higher).

USD getting weak again at 43.88, and may not be getting a 42.xx level this xmas holiday where USD remitance is the highest among the months. Might see 44.5 level this jan-feb when global correction comes.

Late upLOAD : Blog date: 12-13-2010