Global Countries/Economies and their Individual Performance 5-31-2011

For All Global Traders there who are using Fundamentals as their Primary Weapon, here are my Reviews of Countries and their Respective P/E Ratio (Price over the Earnings of their Top 30,40 or 50 companies).

First of all, let me lay down the averages:
9-13 - A very Cheap Market, Companies are earning more than their stock prices
14-16 - Market is Fairly Valued
17-22 or UP - Market is overvalued, strong but may lead into bubble burst

ASIA:
PSE - 14.96 (fairly valued, other companies are at 25-30x ratio, banks are at 16-18x, while properties,energy is at 10-12x ratio)
China - 15.35
Hong Kong - 12.20 (my best choice so far if entering into Asian Equities)
Korea - 20.90 (might be bubble forming, coincide with the boom of its Exports/Imports globally)
Australia - 16.50
Singapore - 10.60 (not sure why very low, and upside is very high, but no huge movements lately)

U.S:
Dow Jones - 13.66 (fairly valued at the moment, a lot of upside as company earnings getting better)
S&P - 15.29
Nasdaq - 23.71 (average fair value is 18-21)

Europe:
FTSE - 14.66
Germany - 12.6
Italy - 12.00
Ireland - Negative 8.27
Athens - 30.78

DOW and PSE 5-29-2011

Oil Markets began to rally to $101 last Friday, and so are GLobal Equity Markets, I still believe, if nowhere to run, follow Oil markets. So if Oil markets rally, so will our Global Equity Markets.

Overall, Dow Jones got a support at 12350 level, we expect the support of the uptrend above is at 12,250, but seems that at this point, U.S. can now rally. Looking into the 2nd DOW JONES Chart, its an extended view of the Market, and we still see, medium term, its still on a uptrend cycle with Major support of 11,500.

Despite European problems, U.S. is still on a Fair Value based from earnings on its Top Companies. Trade the Range.



PSE market is one of the exagerated movers in Asia Markets, we see a 5% drop in 3 days, then a 5% rally in 3 days.

PSE is now recovering, but is near to its 4400 level resistance, MACD and RSI is still not showing any positive effects to this.

For short term traders, Trade the range of 4150 and near 4320 level.

Stock Snapshots: EDC,FGEN,EEI,FLI,MEG,RCB,MBT,MPI 5-26-2011

Market Snapshots: Singapore, Korea, Australia, HongKong 5-25-2011

Singapore Strait Times - STI


Korea - KOSPI



Australia - AORD


Hong Kong - HSI

1st Casualty: Greece is officially in Recession 5-23-2011

We are celebrating for the 26th month continuous rally, but most of us are not aware, that this European area is now oficially in Recession..

I was just saying in my 5-22-2011 blog that I am pretty sure that next recession in our country and Globally will be a European Debt crisis or a possible default of a Billion Bond owed by a Country.

And now, Greece has finally come into a place where negative GDP Growth, 20% or more Jobless Rate, Negative CPI, 25% Per Annum interest rate for the 25YR BOND, 17% Per Annum Interest Rate for a 10YR BOND, A new LOW from the 2009-end recession, and a fresh 70Billion worth of Debt which can be given an example like a Bomb which is ticking and ready to explode.. 70Billion worth of Debt, being "Defaulted" means 70Billions burning cash of Investors trying to help this Country.

Now Negative Futures going really into Red territory, dragging down all the GLobal markets. Even though Asia is very strong, This is still the world, all TOP 3 Regions, ASIA EMEA and N.A and L.A. Regions, go with the same waves for Equity Markets.

OBama actually even went to Europe maybe to fix this problem, but I am being confident here, This european debt may be passed out in the short term, the expanding Debts all around Europe including Paris, will eventually explode and drag the whole market our of its Uptrend.

Short term, Outlook is still gloomy, Positive growth for U.S. and Asia Markets, a good chance to earn 20% for 2011 and 2012. Don't lose hope, we are growing Quarter by Quarter on our GDPs, nothing to be scared about for now, These bad news may be a good chance to buy on dips, but a good reason also to stay away from the market. But why is S&P downgrading each and every country in Europe (Paris downgraded from HOLD to SELL)- they know something which a normal investor DON'T know. I am betting and somewhat scared, a possible 2012 bubble burst.

DOW daily, DOW weekly, PSE 5-22-2011

Greece is now facing its debt problems again, with raising fears of extending the deadlines could mean default on its Greece Bonds.

This Global Bull market is still intact, but European Debts really pose a very very high risk threat of ending this bull market rally, US equity rising due to good earnings, but European Equities follow the U.S.? with month on month jobless rate increase, debt problems, and Default risks? This really injects to my mind that 90% reason of the next recession, are due to European problems, one possible scenario is a default of one of the biggest state/country in Europe.

DOW JONES daily charts shows a stay at the 12,500 critical support. A break below means negative effect to the bull market, with long weeks of sidelines and downtrend pressure. And a support at 12,500 with a good rally upward means Equities for the U.S. is really at a fair value and about to go up. Target price is 13,000-13,200. BUY near 12,500 Level, cut loss if it falls below 12,500 with the next support of 12,000.



The only risk having in the U.S. equities is the Negative Divergence formed on the Weekly Charts of S&P, DOW and Nasdaq, I still believe it posts a 30% chance of forming into a sell-off, but I still believe, a good and strong rally could negate this Negative Divergence.

For our Philippine market, PSE is still choppy, with no signs of movement. I expect our market to be choppy until the movement trend of U.S. Still, the negative divergence is posing a threat and shouting "correction". For the PSE market, I am 80% confident, that a good correction to 4000-4100 level is mandatory, to make a good support and form a bottom, eventually make new high and attempt the 4400 resistance level. HOLD and wait for correction.

4th month and on fire: Thank You

It has been 4 months since I opened up this Blog Site, in order to share my insights throughout the Global Stock Market and informing everyone my beliefs, comments and forecasts about the Stock market.

I want to thanks everyone, Globally, who supported and continuously reads my blog. I may not post updates everyday, and usually more of the Philippine Markets - 70% of all posts, but I am trying to update and give my utmost reviews on Individial Markets Worldwide and Individual Stocks that I have been reviewing on a Daily Basis.

Thank you, God Bless, let us learn together and make mooolah in Stock/Commodity Markets and Good Luck on our trades! :)

PSE market update 5-17-2011

Global Market experiencing choppy markets and on the negative territory, while our PSE market is still climbing and trying to hit the 52 week highs.

But news are suprisingly negative, the point of scenario in a bull market where companies are trying hard but always gets short on projected earnings, thus making a stock overpriced from its fair value.

Let me post some of the summaries of Q1 2011 earnings updates:
AEV - down
AP - down
FGEN - down
EDC - down
JFC -down
EEI - down
PNB - very huge down
MPI - down
Meg - down
abs - down
gma - down
DGTL - down
CEB - down
MWC - down
MER - down

Increase in profit:
BPI - 4.5% up
BDO - up
GLO/TEL - flat/up
PCOR - huge up
SMC - up 100%++ only due to Manipulative increase when it was at March 31,2011
PX/AT/other minings - up

With this kind of market, companies are getting hard to reach their quota, inflation goes up, people cut spending, thus affecting their income.

What do they have in common??... Unstable Stock PRices/ Overvalued Stock Prices. We may be good in Technicals, but somehow, we must seek for Fundamental Reasons to give Fair Value (FV) to a stock. If this trend (getting hard to hit consensus forecasts, lower earnings each and every Quarter), this can pop the bull market out of PSE or at least create a wall where we cannot see a new High. Investment firms forced to rate their BUY rating to HOLD, and HOLD rating to SELL, what's the impact? Investors panic, and we experience sell-offs.

HOLD and lighten if its still at 4300-4400 level.

Stock Snapshots : EDC,FGEN,RCB,PX 5-15-2011

From time to time, I would try to post as much as I could with limited time used due to busy schedule.

I am introducing the random Stock Snapshots I chose within the week with much exposure/Top 10 most traded for the week, with complete information (technical analysis) but without any comments on the sidelines.

Hope everyone could use the time also to learn from the Charts/Graphs without commentators reading the charts. Enjoy!

Asia Equity : Australia, China and Hong Kong 5-12-2011

AORD’s recent rally to the 5k level really went off due to weak accumulation and negative divergence in the Weekly Charts. It is now ranging from the 4700-5000 level band, and is gathering strength in order to break out of 5k level. The negative divergence really put up a huge barrier and a greater risk of more correction into this market.

On the brighter side, AORD is still in long term uptrend, and accumulate near 4600 level with an overall target of 5200-5400 (support of yr. 2008) once breakout of 5k level.

SSEC’s is poised to have the biggest move of all time in the upcoming months. The narrowing of the trendlines really pose a huge movement to this market. It is now 3050 level vs the 2700 level. Who will win? I am betting on the upside, Once a successful breakout, we have a target of 3500-4000 level. Accumulate if it goes as low as 2700-2750-2800.

HSI is still in short term downtrend, with a trading band of 22k-24k. The range is too huge to be an opportunity for good trades. This equity is already lagging compared to other asian countries, both HSI and SSEC are short term downtrend, waiting and accumulating momentum. We still forecast HSI and SSEC to beat upon expectations, and a breakout of 24k level soon, will have an upside target of 26k.

Overall, I see our neighboring countries struggling to be in their new highs, having a lot of correction and gaining momentum. While our PSE market, is still attempting to hit the All time high of 4,400. If this issue persist, I am more than willing to shift funds to other Asian markets and avoid PSE at this moment.

Pacquaio Wins! But PSE losses steam 5-9-2011

Congratulations to Team Pacquaio for winning and still having the World Championship title. its not a KO for Pacquiao, and not a KO also for our PSE Market to hit the old high of 4400. From our past post http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2011/05/dow-jones-and-short-update-for-pse.html. We expected this market NOT TO hit new highs, and consolidate on the huge band around 3800-4400.

Even if the RSI is standing at 50.0, I am still waiting for more correction to come, SMC has been dragged down with a 2PO price of 110, many anticipated buyers subscribed due to being stucked at 150-180 level, having a "chismis" of SMC opening at 120-130, It broke the hearts of the SMC solid buyers (who chased SMC up to 18) by opening only at 110. Too sad, but im sorry for the losts.. You took the risk of the Overvalued stock, there it goes.. That's stock market.

Anyway, We still expect the market to go sidelines and may hit 4000 level (purple Color) before any buyback continues, there are a lot of stocks which are currently overvalued with overbought status and need to take more correction phase to hit new highs. The Daily MACD and RSI Negative divergence confirms that we may not seek 4400 yet.

Let us see in the next few weeks, if PSE market may get its steam rising through and beat the 4400 level with a K.O. ! HOLD and wait near 4,000 level to buy back in.

Good Luck!

Oil Market, DOW Jones Daily and DOW Jones Weekly forecast 5-8-2011

Oil market really spiked that caused disturbance to the global markets specially the Inflation battle of each and every country and each and every consumer of Crude/Oil. With the rise of oil, Interest/Loan late rises to fight inflation, policies to fight huge company costs are raised, and small businesses are pressured to earn more money despite the commodities cost/expenses. Recently, Oil really pushed up where it went on an overbought level at 116/117 where its almost the 150USD point where Global market nears its market where it got the recession.

Now it is in temporary correction level at 97, and could reach up to as low as 90 in few weeks ahead. Take this an opportunity for Oil Traders to buy from dips, and for consumers to Gas up all you need once roll back has occured (if the Oil companies are honest with the computation of Global Oil prices)




We were discussing last week that DOW Jones went to much to an overbought level where needed correction must happen, and it almost hit our correction target of 12500, Now it is at RSI level of a good bull market correction, and might take some time to relax at this level for few days, before it attacks the 52 week highs. Daily chart looks so good for the run, but my concern is the Weekly Charts below.



DOW Jones Weekly charts shows us how great we can achieve and is raising bars to get into new highs up to the old 14k level before the recession. This bull market still shows strength and a lot more possibilities of making into new highs. But my concern now is the Negative Divergence formed in the Weekly Charts. Seeing Negative Divergence in a weekly chart is more effective in forcasting market correction than Daily Charts. It poses a threat as of now, but may just be a good reason for DOW Jones to rally so high that could negate this bad signal.

Once the negative divergence can be pulled off by good and huge rally of this Market. I have drawn above my personal forecast of the DOW Jones in the coming weeks/months. A race to the 13,500 level around Q3 or Q4 this year.

Notice how OIL and Global Market tandem together. Now has Oil dropped 15% will Global Market follow? Let us see, as long as they are uptrend together, I dont see DOW Jones must get that 15% correction also. If Oil bubble, so will DOW Jones/GLobal Market.

Good luck!

DOW Jones and short update for PSE market 5-1-2011

DOW JOnes just did a convincing breakout above 12500 to make us a leg trip to another bull market highs! We were discussing last 2 weeks ago that DOW Jones is experiencing a negative divergence for its MACD and RSI and must pass out that with huge daily gains to remove the threat, and clearly now, MACD and RSI looks positive and no negative divergence, issue only is the very high RSI level at 87. It really needs to take a pause, and I am betting that fall to the 12500 level is a good correction for our new Market highs!

Short term, it has a very strong resistance at 13,000 level, but my Wild Guess is that we are going to high 13,200 for the Minor Wave 3 around end of May or Early June before the 5% correction.

I would like to note also that : We are now in a semi Bull/Bubble Market where we see Market Spikes of more than 1% a day (a.k.a. the start of the Bubble Market). What we see in Oil Market spikes, it can also be seen in the Global Market, This is the starting level where people tend to risk more with their trades due to extravagant money making gains, Looking for more opportunities and gains, they increase their Risk Appetite and putting more money in the market and making crazy and risky trades, thus inflating a Bubble (what DMC, SMC chart looks like). This may be just the start of the said cycle, and is months/years time to develop, so just ride with it with caution, and we might see around 15-30% gain up to next year for DOW JONES, S&P and Nasdaq.

Happy Trading!


For the Philippine Market.



I am still cautious and selling more in the past few weeks, the 3800-43xx run was really enormous but with a strong negative divergence, I still believe 4400 will be a hard to knock level, a correction to 4200-4250 or even 4100 would be healthy for our market.

http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2011/04/unexpected-market-4-26-2011.html