(REPOST) Congress Heads Into Weekend Deadlocked on Debt Plan 7-30-2011

Just to put some comments on the Most devastating Weekend for Obama, the Rush to approve the Debt Ceiling Plan.

Since last week, Im not actually scared of the US Default with an estimate of just 10% chance to default, but at the end of Friday night in the U.S., it was rejected by the Republicans, setting to a 50-50 chance of Default/Downgrade. Obama and his team goes ahead on the weekend planning.

The DOW is now near its support which hit 12,000 intraday low, and is ready to take off while looking into charts, but It still ends up on U.S.'s final decision on its debt ceiling plan.

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Congress headed into the final weekend before a threatened U.S. default deadlocked over legislation to raise the debt limit as President Barack Obama appealed to party leaders to reach a compromise.

The Senate yesterday swiftly rejected a plan the Republican-controlled House passed hours earlier with no Democratic support. It would have required congressional approval of a constitutional amendment to balance the budget and forced another debt-limit vote by lawmakers in about six months to continue the nation’s borrowing authority beyond early 2012.

Congressional leaders “need to start working together immediately to reach a compromise that avoids default and lays the basis for balanced deficit reduction,” White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said in a statement after the two votes.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, who offered modifications to a Democratic plan that he said are designed to attract Republican support, accused GOP leaders of rebuffing his efforts to negotiate.

Reid said when he attempted to engage Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky in talks, “We had no one to negotiate with.”

“We’re missing Republicans,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, though with just days left to a possible Aug. 2 default, “that could change.”

‘Done Everything’

House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, speaking before the House vote, said his party has “done everything we can to find a common-sense solution.”

Shortly after the Senate rejected Boehner’s plan, the House scheduled a preemptive vote for today on Reid’s proposal -- planning to defeat it even before the Senate takes it up.

Financial markets were restrained in reacting to the Washington impasse yesterday. Treasuries rallied, sending yields on 10-year notes to the lowest level since November. The yield on 10-year Treasury note yields declined 15 basis points to 2.79 percent in New York. Stocks fell as economic growth trailed forecasts. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.7 percent and tumbled 3.9 percent this week for its worst slide in a year.

Lawmakers are working through the weekend. Senate procedures would allow an initial vote on Reid’s plan at about 1 a.m. tomorrow. A Senate vote then could be held at about 7 a.m. on Aug. 1, allowing the measure to return to the House before the Aug. 2 deadline.

To contact the reporters on this story: Julie Hirschfeld Davis in Washington at Jdavis159@bloomberg.net; Mike Dorning in Washington at mdorning@bloomberg.net

Properties on the block: Fli, Meg, EEI 7-27-2011

I can smell some property stocks burning rubber and attempting to breakout on their 8th month downtrend lines since Nov of 2010, I can smell something and I am certain that a breakout will happen soon!

VLL already went into uptrend mode, and the most traded stock when it comes to the month of July Aug Sept, FLI and MEG. And include EEI also as the 6x ratio and good charts can be joining the party as well. FLI has 10x, and Meg has 11x, I think they are over reacting that condo/lot sales is still slow due to U.S. low home sales, but Philippines is different, everyone wants to own 29 square meter Studio type bedroom here at a costly price, making FLI and MEG earn 4-6Billion per year :)

For those who wants to get in, its your choice now, I'm already fully packed up on these 3 and waiting for the "breakout" and uptrend cycle of these sleeping falcons.

Hong Kong, Australia Index 7-25-2011

Since PSE has no tradable cheap stocks, I am leaning towards these 2 nearby Asian countries which are good in returns on a range the trade patterns.

HSI, Hong Kong Index, is now pegging at 22,000, at support of the 21000-24000 trade the range. Although this index is Miedum term downtrend, the 11x ratio is sooo inviting and has lot of reasons to be buying with. The cheap RSI, the near support trade the range which has 5-10% returns, and 9 months of continuous downtrend which is gaining momentum to have a breakout.

Buy near 22000 at the support, or preferable near 21500. next support after that, 20000-20800.



Another market I am trading is the AU Index, which is the #1 composition of the "one and only" dollar equity tradable in our local banks - the ING-BPI Asia Fund.

lthough we were stunned by the -1.2% GDP growth of AU last Q1, it is mainly due to the flood it had that has caused the slowdown.

The trade the range patter is also so convincing with a 3-8% tradable range.

Buy near 4460 level, it it does not hold, accumulate near 4200. (current P/E = 15x)

Personal Disclosure: I was able to successfully trade 4.5% Net for the past 2 months, Even though the global market is -3% for the past Quarter.

DOW daily, weekly, PSE daily 7-24-2011

DOW Daily and Weekly charts uptrend, with DOW Debt due until Aug 2, I feel that deb ceiling will be passed by Senate in order for the avoidance of the U.S. Defauly.

Uptrend continues with a twice visit to a resistance around 12700 level, and came back down on intradays, DOW Jones resistance is usually at the 12800 level, and a breakout of that level will let U.S. reach 13200-13600 level. Daily chart MACD and RSI is looking good, which may mean to increasing of debt ceiling by next week.

Buy on DIPS, as near as 12000 level. For a possible inverted head and shoulder pattern.
PE Ratio Check: 13.90




DOW Weekly charts long term uptrend. Is waiting for another breakout,till we see 52 week highs. Weekly RSI and MACD is still weak, and need to rally and breakout of the 12800 high to reach new levels.


PSE Market is getting hot and traders are leveraging their money to aggresively trade stocks. For the past few months/weeks, 10% of the stocks go up to new levels, while other 90% remains sideways or in short term downtrend.

Aside from TONS of money circulating on mining and various 52 high revisits like BDO,AP,ICT, FGEN,SMC,PX. Others are just watching the remaining 90% of the market with very low volume. I dont even know if people out there still make money on the other stocks which are in the sideways/downtrend.

I would like to congratulate MVP for making NBA All stars play vs PBA. Kudos to advertisments of MVP to MER,MWC,MPI,TOL,PX,TEL,PLTL, Red Mobile, Makati Med, Cardinal Santos Hospital, TV5, IBC13, MVP Foundation and others. I hope your stocks correct to a more "reasonable price" level. :)

HOLD and SELL on unexpected rally. See you in 4600 resistance.
PE Ratio Check: 15.83 (getting overheated)

Top 5 Tips to Build Wealth and Success 7-24-2011

Warren Buffett is worth $45 billion. That wealth isn't only a factor of savvy investing and good business — the "Oracle of Omaha" is also known as a penny pincher. Buffett still lives in the same Omaha, Neb., home he bought in 1958 for $31,500.

Follow his frugal formula, and you too may wind up with a lot more money than you ever dreamed.

This week Financially Fit covers five tips to build wealth and success.

1. Live Below Your Means.
Being wealthy isn't just a product of your salary or investment prowess; it's learning how to save.

"We can make a lot of money, you can make a little bit of money, but the second you spend all the money is when people get into trouble. Saving is the key to preserving your wealth," says Ed Butowsky, managing partner of Chapwood Capital Investment Management, a firm that manages money for wealthy individuals.

As many Americans realized during the booming real estate market, just because you think you can afford something doesn't mean you should buy it. Keeping an eye on your bottom line will pay dividends over the long term.

2. Bounce Back From Defeat
With nearly 15 million workers unemployed right now in the U.S., it's easy to get discouraged. Don't! Most successful and wealthy people have overcome obstacles and failure along the way. Steve Jobs was ousted from Apple when he was 30. Today, he's a billionaire and a legend. Plus, after getting fired, he created another billion-dollar media company, Pixar.

"Bouncing back from defeat is something all great achievers have. They have this undying belief good things will happen and will continue to happen," says Butowsky.

Take Michael Jordan. "His airness" was cut from his high school basketball team. Motivated by the rejection, Jordan became a star the next season. The rest is history.

3. Self-Promote
Regardless of the profession, the rich and successful tend to have a strong sense of self-worth — key to skillfully navigating an upward career path. Mark Hurd, who was ousted as CEO of Hewlett-Packard in August, couldn't be kept down for long. Using his business skills and connections, in September, Hurd was named president of Oracle. (Hurd and Oracle founder Larry Ellison are known to be close friends.)

4. Have Street Smarts
Bernie Madoff lived the high life for decades, scamming unsuspecting clients, with a money-making formula that proved too good to be true. Only afterward did we learn that with a little due diligence, most clients could have easily uncovered the fraud.

But it's not only the swindlers and the con men you have to watch out for. Many times, friends and family take advantage of the rich. Whether it's a handout or an investment idea, Butowsky advises his high net worth clients that in most cases, it's wisest to just say "no." The best way to do that: have someone else do it for you.

"You need to really set up a wall between you and your family," he advises. "If you don't want to give them (family or friends) money ... saying no is probably a good idea."

5. Buy Cheap
The rich can afford to splurge, but that doesn't mean they do.

John Paulson, a billionaire hedge fund manager, bought his Hamptons "dream house at a bargain basement price," according to Greg Zuckerman, author of the Paulson-based book, "The Greatest Trade Ever." The story has it that Paulson eyed the home while it was in foreclosure. Finally, on a rain-soaked day, he purchased the home on the Southampton town hall steps. He was the only bidder.

On New York City's Upper East Side, Michael's— The Consignment Shop for Women— has been a bargain-hunting destination for more than 60 years. "We have a good percentage of women who can afford to shop on Madison Avenue but really like the idea of saving that money," says proprietor Tammy Gates.

From Chanel to Gucci and Louis Vuitton, the store specializes in high-end designer merchandise for a reasonable price. Speaking of her clientele, Gates says, "they're wealthy for a reason. They recognize that bargains keep people wealthy. Paying top dollar when you don't have to doesn't make sense."

This article is part of a series related to being Financially Fit

http://financiallyfit.yahoo.com/finance/article-110926-6907-5-top-5-tips-to-build-wealth-and-success?ywaad=ad0035&nc

PSE Daily and PSE Weekly Charts 7-19-2011

Daily Charts seems to be ok, with U.S. getting hammered each day, the PSE goes on the positive side inch by inch, I have highlighted the blue line on a note that PSE broke out of its 4430 resistance, but there are 2 possible ways here:
1. Bullish people attempting to break out on a huge candlestick to confirm the breakout. But no one is convinced for momentum traders to buy in, since market is priced higher. but a good breakout will surely lead this to 4600 level( see weekly charts below)
2. The Bearish people (who wants to short the market- Im one of those), is trying to heavyweight the bulls and avoid the breakout to the 4500-4600-4700 level. (I wish shorting is legalized, as there is no making of money for "long ones" - Tsupitero). At the end, there is a possibility that the blue resistance may form a False Breakout pattern.

Daily charts looks overbought and is in NEGATIVE Divergence. Basura stocks and minings are in place where money is moving around, what if no other bluechips player goes back to this high market.

It is easier to play on the ground with lots of people, rather than attempting to go up in the sky where planes and birds fly roughly around.

HOLD and sell at unexpected rallies, especially the 20x ratio ones.



Looking into the Weekly PSE Charts, we can see that overall it is still uptrend, but my concern is that, U.S. and Europe and asian countries, battling for a breakout, then PSE is just like playing Basketball with no opponents on the other side, still reighning the 52 week highs, not to mention all time highs.

There is a small chance of a "BULL TRAP" in here, although im not saying it will happen, there is a probability when all people are only enable to buy and buy and buy, legalize Short Selling, and we will see a healthy market like the U.S. where 10% Correction in a month is possible, and resumes a 10% rally in a month also, a tradable market.

HOLD and watch for the WEAK RSI AND MACD, Negative Divergence on this Weekly Charts. Might mean something..

Global Debt 7-18-2011

The current issue today is the debt u.s. is having with a deadline of august 2, tim geithner proposing the united states to increase the debt ceiling to avoid default of u.s. debt but is prone for a debt downgrade.
If the senate did not raise the debt ceiling, a sharp decline is expected, its like a burning fire, and the senate has no other choice but to put logs to continue the flames but will hurt the rating of u.s. debt.

this world has been so babysitted that each and every country including the philippines increases its debt year by year until it looms, who are going to pay all of the entire debt of each and every country? i cant seem to find a country with no debt.

italy 2 yr note has increased again to 6% from 4% last month, and from 2.5% last 2009, are they the next greek who needs another bailout? my guess: its only one of the european country which is waiting to explode.

Thinking of europeAn debts, u.s. debt seems to be far from default, but it is uncertain to happen, we cant predict that sudden default, as u.s. debt is not as near to junk as what greek debt has.

my play. continue to buy on dips, assuming u.s. debt ceiling will be raised by aug 2

MPI, EDC, FLI 7-10-2011

MPI did a good rally from the 3.30 level, and went to point that I was upset when it did a breakout of the 3.65-3.70 resistance level. I was saying I sold too early and unexpected the rally.

But with a 25x ratio, this seems expensive, and one day after that rally, it retraced yesterday to as low as 3.54 level. Seems a FALSE BREAKOUT. Woohoo! CLap clap!

A False breakout, means another chance to trade this stock. Accumulate near 3.40 level.



EDC is also one of the stock, trying to hit 52 week highs, it successfully did a 7.03 level, but that level ISN'T a breakout yet.

Looking into the Support at only 5m shares with no one having interest to buy it up, this might be a false breakout also.

Trade the range of this inclined triange formation. Buy near 6.5 if it falls that level.



FLI is also consolidating into a semi downtrend trend. Same as other Property stocks there, they are weak and not yet into a medium term uptrend cycle, trade the range up to the 1.30 level.

Another hint is that, usually property stocks are rallying and active at months of July-Sept. I hope they could breakout soon to get the party started.

TRADE the 1.10-1.30 range.

DOW,PSE, HK weekly market updates 7-10-2011

U.S. rallied after the easing of European Debt. The rally overshoot to 900pts in just 8 days and went to overbought levels.

Resistance is still on the 12876 level, and may retrace/correct back to 12400-12600 level before attempting to breakout of the 12876 resistance. A breakout of 12876 will lead to upper resistance 52week level of 13200-13500.

TRADE THE RANGE.



I am still a person who views PSE the most political and hardest market to play with.

A day of gains, and a day of loss. If DOW gains, PSE losses, and vice versa.

And traders of our market is mainly with 10 Top Trading Institutions. Easy to manipulate with.

In my analysis, we hit a new ALL TIME HIGH, but retraces back to 43xx level, its like saying we had a breakout, but sooo weak and people sold more than bought.

MACD is weak, and might accumulate some time and in a sideways format before seeking new highs.

An inverse head and shoulder is possibly forming, and once successful, may see a Technical target price of 4700-4800 (assuming DOW makes a breakout, and EUR silences its debt temporarily).



HSI Market is one of the easiest market to trade the range with. ( I ASSUME). From Nov 2010 to this point, the large trading band was circulating at a 10% level, and in 10 months time, trading that range on a perfect note, lead to 30% increase in portfolio already.

BUY on DIPS or with 22000 level with a cheap PE ratio of Hong Kong to about 11x only.

the rushing bull 7-7-2011

I cant believe that this rushing bull is now 7 days out of 8 days on the positive side with each rally a minimum of 0.5%.

at this 3rd hour of dow jones trading, market is currently at 12722 level. just 100 pts from the 52week high. there are really good returns when you know when to enter a market. though at this point in time, the whole 900pts rally was only set back by a 20pts correction, its quite overbought and might get knocked into consolidation mode once it hits near 12810 level.

short or temporary sell near 12810 and wait for good pullback and correction to re enter the market.

for pse market, the 4413 breakout went to a selloff and back to 43xx level. was just a false breakout that makes 4413 another strong resistance level? trade the range and wait for a better oportunity upon pullback.

Stock Snapshots 7-4-2011

Dow Daily, PSE daily, and Elliot Wave analysis of this bull market until 2012 7-3-2011

From our last post indicating the we might found the short term bottom already after getting the double bottom, actually we did! and it went on a strong rally with a 5% gain in 1 week time span. Greece has bene given around 100+ Billion of Bailout AGAIN. Yet to be assure, the 15% cut in wages, 15% tax in alcohol/cigarettes, Cuts in Healthcare and Govt spending, wont pay that almost 1T Debt of Greece, lets party till we see European Countries beg for Bailouts also. (Ireland and etc).

For short term traders, Daily charts broke out of the downtrend range, rally was spectacular and recommended to have short correction as RSI is at 84. We are back in the uptrend mode. Next resistance is at the 52 week high of 12800.



Elliot Wave analysis Forecast:

Let us try to formulate and forecast where this Bull market can bring us. So far, we found the short term bottom at 11800 which is really needed to continue this bull market globally.

I have made 2 possible scenario, with the guidance of Tony Caldaro's blog as well. This is a no assurance trend but on my elliot wave experience, it comes close to what Elliot Wave Analysis can do.

1st Scenario (Longer bull market scenario) - We are only at the Primary Wave III, Intermediate wave iii., and is a long way before this bull market ends. At this type of projection, we can see the enormous Primary Wave III ends at around 13,500 level, before a 10-15% major correction happens.

Estimate time to end of Bull market for this scenario is around Q2 2011. Same as Tony Caldaro's forecast.



2nd Scenario (My Shorter version forecast) - In our 2nd scenario, I made trends as short as possible, making the 12800 high as the Primary Wave III, and the 2 mos correction as the process of the Primary Wave IV Correction, this is way shorter rallies from my charts above.

This is one possible scenario which im playing around.

Yet, overall 1st scenario and 2nd scenario points to a place that this bull market might end at early 2012 or late 2012 with an initial target of the all time high for the DOW of 14,500.

TRADE THE RANGE.

Good luck on the trades!


For our very own PSE Market. I did not trade it actually, I was really hoping that the 4150 drop was a breakdown already. Then, the very next day, it was just a false breakdown, I still see this market as a less opportunity to make money, as we are just fighting around the ALL TIME HIGH, and speculating that in months timeframe, will be getting a new ALL TIME HIGH. Im less betting here, as MACD / RSI and volume is very light and no good indication that a breakout could happen soon. But still, its more likely to happen, I am just betting - NOT NOW. A breakout of DOW of 12800 could lead to breakout of PSE to the 4400 level.

Congratulations for the range trade of 4150-4350, that's somehow a huge gain already. But individual stocks are still laggard, only TEL is doing its job to range trade, others are either unchanged, or still stuck at 2011 level range.

TRADE THE RANGE.




EW charts belong to Tony Caldaro of caldaro.wordpress.com