USD to PHP 1-31-2012

Trend #1.


Trend #2.


Our very own currency (USD/PHP), remains to be downtrending vs the USD. 2 possible trends below since 2009 shows that both are in long term downtrend.

The overall movement of USD /PHP are mainly due to:
1. If the Philippine Index / Economy grows, USD/PHP goes down as we compete good with other Countries throughout the globe.
2. Other good indication is that. If U.S. Stocks/Index like DOW,S&P and NASDAQ are at the highs, our USD/PHP is very low, example was at 2008 U.S. Peak, Dollar/Peso almost hit 39.00

Now that some suggest Philippines and U.S. is in Bull Market since 2009, 2 graphs show that certainly, USD/PHP is in long term Downtrend.

TradableRange is currently 42-45. May see 39,00ish if U.S. get back to 14000 (its all time high for Dow Jones) and may see 46-50ish if U.S. gets back to 7000 (Dow Jones 2009 Low)

Equities (UPTREND) = USD/PHP (Downtrend)

Fearless Forecast #5: DOW will have correct and hit 12500 at a minimum or below to stay healthy by 1-27-2012 to 2-27-2012

Fearless Forecast #5: DOW will have correct and hit 12500 at a minimum or below to stay healthy by 1-27-2012 to 2-27-2012

Current Forecasts:

Fearless Forecast #1: Euro to Usd will break below important support at 1.2900 by Q1 2012. (HIT)

Fearless FOrecast #2: Euro to USD will dip to 1.24 or below by Q1 2012. (almost hit, 1.260 intraday low)

Fearless Forecast #3: DOW Jones will get below 12k by Jan-Feb 2012.

Fearless Forecast #4: USD to PHP will remain uptrend and hit 45.50 by 1H 2012.

Property Stocks (MEG,FLI,VLL) and Australia 1-26-2012

All property sectors are still Medium term downtrend, and if the earnings kicks in larger than expected, we expect these 2^nd liners to break out of its downtrend channels.

Let us start with the most linient and cheapest among the three. MEG. MEG for 2011F earnings is at 8 P/E Ratio. Below from the properties average of 12X Ratio. This was the most active of the three for 2012 and Q4 2011. MEG has a good tradable range and expect it to rise soon if Rent and Property Sales start to increase. Accumulate near 1.72 short term support, and accumulate more if it falls near 1.62, then 1.50it’s 52-week low.

Long Term: Possible Uptrend

Medium Term: Downtrend and will resume to uptrend once it breaks out of 2.0 Resistance.

FLI became a laggard when almost no volume for 2012. It was the most traded 2^nd liner then, but became soft when it hit 1.50 last year. The 1.0 seems to be a strong support and now forming a descending triangle, A very strong support is at 1.0, followed by .85-.90 support. FLI is now at 9x 2011F. And is expected to be weak due to flat sales.

Long Term : Sideways

Medium Term: Downtrend and will resume to uptrend once it breaks out of 1.20 Resistance.

VLL also became silent after became a very tradable Property stock last 2011. In terms of 2011F earnings, it is at 9.0X. Fairly below average. All these properties seems to be below 12X Average and cannot cope up with the OverPriced ALI at 30X P/E 2011F.

A Good 2.80 to 3.20 Tradable Range is intact. Trade the Range.

Long Term : Possible Uptrend

Medium Term: Downtrend and will resume to uptrend once it breaks out of 3.20 Resistance.

Australia (+50pts when looking into Yahoo/Bloomberg) is now in a Trade the range from 4050-4400. It is now slowly getting out of the heavy downtrend channel, we don’t have a clear confirmation yet if this Index is now on a medium term uptrend phase. The 10% Range seems very entertaining to be traded with for a 13X 2011F Index. We expect AU’s GDP to be flat or more than estimated, and must see AU has already recovered from 2011’s flood.

Long Term: Sideways

Medium Term: Downtrend and slowly shifts to being Uptrend once confirmed. Next support is at 3900 if 4050 do not hold.

PSE and Media Companies (GMA7 and ABS) 1-24-2012

In Asia, PSE finished the line at the top spot this Chinese New Year. It got its all Time high and may see a possible correction soon, Negative Divergence is seen in its Daily Chart.

A pullback to the pink zones around 4300-4550 is recommended for this uptrend to continue and be a healthy Market.



Its January again, and the big Media Groups are expected to release Cash Dividends around March and April 2012.

Aligned to lower earnings last 2011, compared to 2010's election-pumped earnings, these 2 Big Media Companies still earned a lot this 2011.

GMA7 did a lower earnings, but still in track to an expected 0.35 per shared cash dividend, around 5% from its current stock price, I did put RED Circles around the cash dividend dates where an expected 5-10% rally was seen for the past 3 years.

Trade the earnings when it is still low.


On the other hand, I prefer ABS for a better profit compared to 2010, 2011F earnings is at 8.5X P/E Ratio, cheaper than Gma7's 13X P/E.

In my estimates, ABS could give 1.50 pesos per share, that is around 4.8% gross dividend per share.

PD: I bought ABS around the 30s, and targeting to sell it at 34-36 before or after the Dividend Dates.

DOW Jones and Global Market Recap 1-17-2012

2 years ago, China lead the Gobal Bull Market from the 2008 recession.

2011 and 2012 is/was a different story, China was the laggard, pulled down by Europe Debts, and the only hero bringing the Global Market to Positive Region is the United States of America.

Now at 13X P/E Ratio, this #1 GDP by Value lead the 2months rally since the European fears last Oct 2011. I know lately, almost everyone shifted from being Neutral to Bullish due to lots of reasons.

I now shift my Bearish sentitment to Neutral for some reasons and still waiting in the sideline for better Economic news.

1. Dow Jones chart above indicates 2 possible long term trends forming:
a. The Green uptrend lines show Bullish type scenario
b. The black downtrend lines shows that short team peak is probable, supported by the possible reverse of the market due to Negative Daily RSI.

2. 13x P/E of Dow Jones, 12.5x of S&P, 10x of Germany, France and London are all in a good earnings characteristics of Neutral/Bull Markets.

3. China GDP had a soft landing for Q4 2011, everyone expected the slowdown to be a hard landing, but did a good job growing 8.9% GDP for Q4 2011.

4. Moody's downgrade to European Countries did not affect much as 70% of the investors Buy Sovereign Debt than Equities.

5. Unemployment Rate slowly goes down.

6. Bull Market lasts from 2-5 Years. And I realized that the 2009-2011 rally is really plausible and in a Fair Value at 13x. European Debt problem may just be a buying opportunity for aggressive investors. (may need to wait for years to confirm this).


Bearish Concerns/Reasons:
1. Greek Mar2012 deadline of 15B is really a mess when it can't pay even a small amount.

2. Possible Greek Default

3. More Austerity and help needed by Spain, Portugal, Greece and Hungary. More downgrades of Moody/S&P.


For the past 2 months, the PROS stomped the CONS with Bullish-like rallies. Still, a simple happening from my 3 Bearish Concerns can make Investors go crazy and forget all the good sentiments we have.

Be cautious and go with the flow. Corporate earnings are intact that fuels the market. Trade the range and prepare some cutloss levels, as for me, it is not still recommended to go LONG. Europe may take years to resolve it's problem, and U.S. investors may take some time to digest the "safety-ness" of investing in Equities.

EEI shines

EEI took a hit after hitting its 52 week high at 4.50 last Oct 2010. After it’s awful downtrend channel that went halved from 4.5 to 2.80, it finally bottomed at a 5x P/E Ratio. A very reasonable and cheap fundamental guideline in stocks.

Lots of issues are roaming around who will be the contract developer of the upcoming PPP tollway projects, Residential buildings and other Construction business. With all Top 30 having an average of 15-17 P/E Ratio, 5.0x with a good earnings will definitely shine when everything is expensive.

With the current uptrend, it made a parabolic spike from 3.83 to 4.25 in just 1 day. RSI hit 91 and very overbought. Once it corrects to 3.5-4.0, treat it as a BUYING opportunity, with a possible return to the 2010 high of 4.50, and long term may hit its all time high.

PSE reached All Time High and may take a pause 1-14-2012

Philippines was the first one to see All Time High or let us say a new 52 week high. Rally within PSE started with the telecoms gaining 15-30% in just few weeks, due to current merging news of TEL and DGTL that affects the pricing/earning of its Tender Offer. Next sector that boosted PSE was banking stocks, making BDO, MBT reach back near its 52 week highs, and UBP having all time high as well. Property Sector did follow with only with half the strength of the Super Ayala's (MWC, AC, GLO), that went a super parabolic spike for 10-20% in just 3 days.

Technically speaking, PSE is on a very overbought region that hit RSI-75. We may assume this is the short term peak for PSE, and may take a breather before any rally resume.

Correction targets 4430 and then 4200. And has no plans to buy overvalued Top30 Stocks. Buy individual underperforming stocks which are below 10x P/E ratio.

** LC had formed a triple peak resistance and need Billions to manipulate this to the upside. - I hate this stock with so much hype in it. May be a candidate for GEO-like mining stock that went busted over years.

Potential short term/medium term peak this Jan 2012

With regards to last month's post:

http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2011/12/we-may-expect-xmas-rally-to-end-2011-12.html

Quoted:
""Elliot Wave Analysis suggests that we are currently on the Mini Wave b to Mini Wave c to finish the Primary Bear Market B rally.

In addition, the Mini Wave b to Mini Wave c rally is still in good shape, and our tentative target time to finish Mini Wave c rally, has passed the 0.7 timeframe target which is on the Dec12th. The current pullback on EUR and US behavior is exactly what we are expecting.

Mini Wave c rally composed of 3 waves , we expect almost the same formation as the mini wave a rally last November.

I believe Santa would be nice to Europe and to the world, and mayhem/selloff may be dalayed toas early as Jan 1st week 2012.

.7 = 21 days = Dec 12th (removed)
1.0 = 30 days = Dec 30th
1.618 = 40-45days = Jan 15th 2012""



Charts and Equities behavior showing the Wave characteristics we have forecasted are on-track with what we have expected. Tony's blog also suggested that Primary Wave B of the Bear Market rally might have ended already. In my own opinion,this can be backed up by the Negative Divergence of the Daily and Weekly charts of Dow Jones. This week to next week is critical to markets, if it does not move higher, we may have seen the peak of this rally. And if it moves above 12500, we may revisit the 52-week high 12870.

Enjoy!

Fearless Forecast #3 and #4 DOW will get below 12k by Jan,Feb, USD to PHP will hit 45.5 by 1H2012 1-6-2012

Fearless Forecast #3: DOW Jones will get below 12k by Jan-Feb 2012.

Fearless Forecast #4: USD to PHP will remain uptrend and hit 45.50 by 1H 2012.

Fearless Forecast #1 and #2 Euro to dip further 1-4-2012

Starting 2012, I will be publishing Fearless Forecasts all throughout the year, with timeframes of Short Term, Medium Term and Long Term, and I will start the forecast count at #1, we will review each of the items and reveal at the end of the year how much % accurate I am on forecasting markets.

Let's start with my last year's forecast. The Euro to USD Currency.

Fearless Forecast #1: Euro to Usd will break below important support at 1.2900 by Q1 2012. (HIT)

Fearless FOrecast #2: Euro to USD will dip to 1.24 or below by Q1 2012.

Happy New Year! 1-2-2011

With regards to my last post:
http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2011/12/korea-hongkong-china-australia-germany.html

We were discussing that 2012 may not be a good year in terms of earnings, and P/E ratio WAS still good as a healthy market last few weeks.

Last weeks post:
Korea - 13 P/E
Hong Kong - 8 P/E
China - 12 P/E
Australia - 13.5 P/E
Germany - 10.5 P/E
London - 10.5 P/E

Updated P/E ratio that includes WEAK Q4 2011:
Bad Earnings all over the world, weak and no clear statement how to solve EUR Crisis now starting to take effect all over the Globe. As of now, only Korea and Philippines were able to release its early earnings and had a drastic drag to its Index from Netural to Overvalued territory (Korea).

Korea - 18 P/E (UPDATED Q3 2011 year), an unexpected jump from 13 to 18. Which makes the market overvalued at current price. Samsung Electronics missed their target, as P/E ratio moved from 8 to 10 P/E ratio at a price of 1,070,000 Won (near its All Time High of 1.09M, and may not break out of its range if earnings stall). Other companies' earnings went down as well.

Philippines - 10 P/E Ratio (Updated Q3 2011 Year) (1-2-2011 2pm SGT - I doubt the 10 P/E Ratio,upon checking the top 30,almost 8 are above 20 P/E, must have been some error in Bloomberg). Philippines went to good earnings from 13.5 P/E ratio last quarter. This does not mean we have a BUY Rating on Philippines, we are still on a Stay Cash recommendation. The decrease of P/E ratio is due to re-calculation of the Top 30 PSE Companies. Including CEB (5 P/E), AP (9 P/E), MEG (8 P/E). Which had a good earnings for 2011. Still be picky on individual stocks who can outperform, as we dont know if they can continue their strong profit Quarter by Quarter. Stay defensive on High Dividend Stocks.

The FF. below are still waiting for the results, and if it is as bad as Korea, it could shoot up the 2011 P/E ratio to above 15 as well. Which means things in the background are taking effect leaning to bad corporate results. If these happens quarter by quarter. Recession may be just around the corner.

Hong Kong - 8 P/E
China - 12 P/E
Australia - 13.5 P/E
Germany - 10.5 P/E
London - 10.5 P/E

Recommendation Guide of Price / Earnings Ratio:
UnderValued - 10 Below
Fairly Valued - 12-15
Over Valued - 15 Above
Exaggeratedly Valued - 20 Above

Source of P/E estimates: Bloomberg