Germany to announce GDP Aug 14, SPX and Hang Seng 7-29-2012

Global Markets almost went off its short term uptrend lines when DAX almost lost its important 6400 support and 1337 for SPX.

The sell-off attempt was reversed by a 2 day 3% rally to calm the markets. Germany is alive again short term, and we are still anticipating for Germany to reach  7000 before any huge selloff resume, or breakdown this short term uptrend line.

Germany GDP is expected to be released by Aug 14,2012. And I am hoping, this run could spark more short term rally in 2 weeks time, and hoping it could really reach 7000 level. A rally to 7000 level could help send DOW and SPX back to their 2012 highs. A chance to SELL when we met that levels!!

Short Term: Uptrend line almost broke off, but 2 day rally resumed and confirmed that short term UPTREND still underway. MACD is Weak.

Medium Term: near the 7000 3yr Downtrend resistance levels.

Long Term: Q2 2012 GDP will make global markets make or break. A contracting Germany Economy will spark selloffs for sure. As I've never seen a deteriorating Economy in terms of GDP, rally to new highs. - remember last week, London just contracted another 0.8% QoQ, 3 time in a row in Negative Territory and their markets made new short term highs. So long term status- Possibly Down.

Our U.S. markets still going strong, expanding 1.5% GDP QoQ. Slightly above from expected 1.2% Growth. Current rally was due to the help of Draghi's comment to make everything possible for Euro.. Still I couldnt believe him, he cant do anything to reverse the Deteriorating GDP of EuroZone in very short period of time. It would take years, plus Eur-Usd almost high 2011 lows of 1.19xx. Weakening their value as EuroZone.

SPX almost fall from short term cliff, hanging by 1337 important support last Tuesday. SPX lost some points below that level, but technical traders made the market afloat from its support. We continue to monitor Germany and Eurozone markets, which seems to be indicator where market will go, we expect Germany to gain some more before any good/bad news come out. So trade the range pattern into possible 2012 highs.

Short Term: Uptrend intact but weak MACD. Next targets 1390,1400 then 1407. Support raised to 1335-1340.

Medium Term: Sideways to Up. Possible to reach 2012 high - 1419.

Long Term: Uptrend line since 2009 still intact.

 

Hong Kong and China markets are the worst performers in Asia. HK is dragged down by China's -20% YoY Index Price.

Hang Seng is near to its Long Term uptrend line, and they must act out fast to Defend these multi-year long term uptrend support.

 In very short term, we are seeing 19500 downtrend resistance in GREY Line, followed by Short-Medium Term uptrend to 20,000 level. A trade the range pattern same with SPX and Germany.

Short Term: must move above 19500 to reach 20000 uptrend resistance

Medium Term: Downtrend multiyear resistance at 20500.

Long Term: Sideways

CURRENT POSITIONS (dollar):

18% - Equity

55% - High Yield Bonds (mix of Corporate,Govt Bonds)

27% - Cash

 CURRENT POSITIONS (Philippine Peso):

12% - Equity

88% - Cash/High Yield preffered stock

Germany in focus, Dow, SPX 7-24-2012

 

Germany I think is the current bellwether of Global Equity direction. The recent rally near 6800 was a clear upper resistance of its short term uptrend channel, and an overbought Daily RSI, we expected a small 2-3% correction, but it made a huge 2daysell off amounting to 4.5% decline, its initial support is at 6400, and should NOT break below its uptrend line. An important support in 1-2weeks time.

Short Term: Uptrend but selloff trying its chance to sell below 6400 support.

Medium Term/Long Term: Sideways to downtrend, 3yr resistance pegs at 7000.

 

DOW Jones and SPX followed Europe’s decline, all three actually have the same chart and support in terms of %.

Upcoming announcement will make or break this global market:

1.       7/27/2012 – Q2 2012 US GDP

2.       Next week to Mid August 2012 are Europe-area GDP:

August 14,2012 - Germany GDP

August 7, 2012 - England GDP(tentative)

If numbers are frustrating, breakdown of this market is likely to happen. Else if numbers are good, we continue to climb back up to 7000 for Germany before critical things happen again.

DOW:

Short Term: Uptrend support at 12500-12600

Medium Term: Sideways
Long Term: Uptrend but weakening

SPX:

 Short Term: Uptrend support at 1348 then max support 1336

Medium Term: Sideways
Long Term: Uptrend but weakening

Both DOW and SPX must NOT break below its Short Term count. Else, Elliot Wave analysis and technical analyst/traders could trigger downward selling.

DOW, SPX, Germany and VIX status 7-18-2012

Dow Jones and SPX has now reached the upper resistance levels of their Medium Term Downtrend resistance. 60mins also shows some negative divergence forming..

In order for US Markets to edge back higher, must breakout of 12800 for DOW and 1364 for SPX. And defend the 12500 and 1334 levels.

Short Term: Uptrend

Short Term Elliot Wave Count: minor wave iii forming of Major Wave 3 of Primary Wave III. Or a possible Bearish B top of ABC Corrective pattern of Major Wave 2 of Primary Wave III.

Medium Term: Downtrend channel still continues.

Long Term: Uptrend still intact. (tho Ultimate Monthly 50MA and 200MA near to cross)

China is still the weakest Emerging Market in terms of ROI for the past 2 years. Its -61% from its 34xx peak last 2010. And attempting to break even lower into 2009 lows. Must hold 2150 support line,else 1600-2150 has long way to find support.

Germany on the other hand is looking good SHORT-TERM. Its short term uptrend channel is still intact with a 5% trading range channel. Germany and other European nations are making things ready to produce their Q2 2012 GDP numbers,maybe by end of July up to Mid-August. Must expect more price reaction,especially if Germany falls to negative GDP territory again.

Short Term: Uptrend

Medium-Long Term: Downtrend at Major resistance(3yr) at 7000, then 5yr resistance at 7400.

Strategy: Looking to slowly turn to cash when Germany reaches 6800, or to Short it as well as Global Equities when it hits 7000 where 3yr downtrend resistance resides.

VIX is starting to reach levels where “too bullish” levels are retraced. VIX closed at 16.48, near the 12-15 levels, where people became too bullish into the markets, sometimes VIX is a good indicator when to sell, as VIX computes for Volatility Index of the Markets.

Examples where VIX hit the range and Market became short term/long term peaks:

April 2012 – 13.66 (DOW at 13336)

April 2011 – 14.27 (DOW at 12876)

April 2010 – 15 (DOW at 11258)

Dec 2006- 9.39 (Dow at 14xxx)

Mostly April huh? “Sell in May and go away”

SPX rallies and defended 1334 Critical Support, GDP, Economic Calendar 7-15-2012

 

SPX, DOW and Nasdaq survived the breakdown threat and reverses the loses with at 1.6% rally last Friday. The world is safe again - for now.

Looking at the price reaction, we are hoping that another leg up could possibly under way, and the false breakdown to 1325 SPX may just be a trap - for now.  

Elliot wave analysis suggests that in a Bull Market, waves are composed of 5 waves up, wether frames are small or big. In this case, we are hoping that minute wave iii of Minor Wave 3 could possibly underway back to 1375 or higher, then a pull back before ending Minor Wave 3 with minute wave v possibly near 2 yr high.

We are still have to defend the Critical 1334 Support of SPX.

Short Term: Correction may have ended, Rally to 1365 resistance highly coming into the next trading days. May bump into that strong downtrend resistance.

Medium Term: Downtrend channel still intact at 1365 Major Resistance.

Long Term:SPX uptrend still intact at 1265.

My Personal Trade: Looking to exit at 1365, and no long investment on Equities for the year, until GDP and Unemployment of Europe stabilizes into Positive Territory.

 

Source: TradingEconomics.com

Q2 was actually a bad month for GDP all across the Globe, China GDP at only 7.6% growth, and then, once there was Singapore and Malaysia shining, acting as relocation sites of U.S. based companies and central hub of Asia, now they are in need of huge jump in terms of growth, as their GDP tumbles to negative territory, Singapore Contracted 0.9% for Q2 2012, and Malaysia contracted 3.2%. Another tumble for Q3 will make this countries into Recession. An unexpected one for these Emerging Asian Markets.

Economic Calendars to look forward into:

July 18 - U.K. Unemployment Numbers

July 24 - Germany GDP

August 14 - Europe GDPs

Source: Scotiabank

Critical SPX support must hold 7-12-2012

Today is a very important day for Equity Trading all over the Globe, Asia just lost 1-2% by U.S. futures, as China Q2 GDP will be released, estimate of 7.5% growth. Negative news as well, as Korea unexpectedly lowers intererest rates since 2009. An unexpected for this Emerging Asian Country. Spain Debts jitters the bad news flow as well.

Futures not looking any good, and its the last support SPX must maintain to stay uptrend short term and possibly medium term/long term.

1334 is the wall to cover and defend, if it breaks below, our mini 1-2-3 rally can just be mini a-b-c corrective pattern.

Elliot Wave Analysis also suggest that a break below this 1334 will trigger more selloff going back to 1262, and may see new low to the RED 3yr long term uptrend line, near 1255.

Crossing my fingers that today SHOULD be a GREEN day.. else, doomsday scenario is back again.

Meanwhile, EUR currency Long Term is pushing down into multi year lows on its Long Term Downtrend Lines. Its now trading at 1.2200 and poised to have its 5th wave down with a price target of 119.xx, its Multi-year low last 2010. We expect EUR to pause at that level for a while,before any price action may confirm the next wave.

My Fearless Forecast. 1USD = 1EUR, anytime from 2012-2020.

SPX and Germany Update 7-9-2012

 

SPX has its best Month, hovering 7% rally for month of June. After hitting 1365, we somewhat expected for a longer pause for some reasons:

1. 70% retracement of entire May drop

2. Resistance of downtrend resistance.

We might adjust the downtrend channcel from 1422 to 1365, and if the market doesnt hold on that 1354 level. We might see the short term uptrend support, which is at 1334.

Any case where market drops 1334.. It's back to bearish mode.

Elliot wave analysis suggest that this is probably a minor wave iv correction, and a rally back to 1365 is highly possible.

Short Term: Uptrend. Stay near the 1334 support

Medium Term: Downtrend channel could still be intact

Long Term: Uptrend since 2009 still intact.

Looking at Germany, our dependent market bellwether for Europe, its possibly showing that we have already broken out from the Medium Term downtrend, and short term uptrend is likely high, thus the drop is just a correction.

Let us see in a few days if Germany revisit 6270-6300 to find its Short Term Uptrend support and channel lines.

PSE Stock Snapshots: FLI, MEG, EDC,FGEN, AGI, BPI 7-4-2012