Warning Issue: Germany hit 7400. 5 year downtrend resistance 9-18-2012

I have no access with my blog for the past week, and noticed that Europe and U.S. made into new highs for the past months.

We should now issue a warning for this possible 7400 peak in short term or maybe in long term. Initial resistance we are watching was 7000 level, and it was passed through easily that made help U.S. get into new 52-week highs.

All other European Nation like France and U.K. are also in this type of 5yr resistance, all charts seems to be the same.

Bellwether for U.S. Economy has been strong gaining almost 20% for the past 4 months since the bottom in May-June. We saw European funds get into the Highest Yields YTD. And we now issue a warning signal to continue to lighten,due to deteriorating Economy plus Spain made a new low, hitting below 2007 levels, a very bearish economy.

Stay light for now, as Negative Divergence in MACD and RSI are seen in European and U.S. Indices.

Short Term: Uptrend with resistance of 7433.
Medium Term: Sideways
Long Term: Long Term 5 yr downtrend resistance still intact and declining.

PSE Stock Snapshots: MEG, FLI, PCOR, PX, EDC, MBT, BDO, AC, ABSP 9-10-2012

PSE Stocks:

Most have peaked short term, and may also be their 2012 highs.

30% - Heavily Downtrend

50% - Sideways

20% - Uptrend

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Germany, France, U.K. and Dow Jones 9-6-2012

European Markets are steady residing into their resistance levels. Low volume and not much fluctuations. They are actually flirting to breakout of their resistances, but no one wants to be with them. News in Europe isn’t going well, mostly flat or even to the downside. We still believe that these 2yr to 5yr resistances aren’t able to break soon.

Slightly peak-ish European Markets may have a meaning of lower upward risk trade or probably more Short-Selling for U.S. Markets.

Germany:

Short Term: 2yr downtrend resistance still at 7000-7050.

Medium/Long Term: Downtrend, with 5yr resistance at 7400 is next in place if 7000-7050 is eked out. or Possible trade the range sideways pattern in these coming years.

London:

Short/Medium/Long Term: 5 year downtrend line still intact, making 5830 the resistance point to tackle. Further contract of Economy could send this lower to 5000 to 5250.

France:

Short/Medium/Long Term: resistance at 3500 to 3600. Not much independent trend, following UK and Germany’s trend I believe.

Dow Jones is still in uptrend short term, it was able to revisit the 52 week highs, but was not able to get above it. We are expecting Dow to follow Germany’s direction, and is biased that Europe may have peaked short term, and may setup a false breakout trap. I haven’t seen a fresh 3 in a row contracting Quarters that made new highs. Looking for Dow to hold around 12800-12900 to stay uptrend.

Short Term: Uptrend at 12800-12900 support, and flat resistance at 13330.

Medium/Long Term: Uptrend

Facebook makes lower price, 50% drop fom IPO price 9-2-2012

 

 Short Update from our post last May 19,2012 regarding the IPO of Facebook.

It has been almost 4months now since FB, the largest Social Networking site hosted its IPO in NASDAQ. And now the Semiconductor Industry and Tech(NASDAQ) almost made into new highs, this tech stock is still dipping day by day. Its current price is now at 18.06, more than 50% lost in equity value in just 4 months. We already tackled this last time, that its value was "not worth it based on its earnings". 

Today, we visited some Financial site than can help us monitor Earnings and Financial bechmarks accurately, we can see above that its P/E is still 62.48x, from its 100x when it had its debut. 

This is an example of greed, where insiders or the FB Board overprices its IPO price, and be the first to sell their shares to the public.

Now, Morgan Stanley have a huge stake in FB on most of its new Funds, is taking the hit due to Greedy Manipulators deciding their IPO price. Im thinking Morgan Stanley's CEO is having headache day by day on hosting FB's IPO as Guarantor. 

I am not holder of this stock, I love this Company as I am a daily user. But taking a look into its current earnings, its far to short from what they are evolving, they must act now else they may follow Multiply's fall. Assuming FB gets into an average NASDAQ stock at 20x P/E, FB should be priced by $7 a share.

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http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2012/05/facebook-ipo-price-rarely-got-above-its.html

Facebook IPO: Price rarely got above its IPO Price on Day1 5-19-2012

Facebook successfully had its IPO Today in NASDAQ after few years of planning, millions and millions f user is increasing YoY, but the one and only question today about the IPO, is this a hype or a good investment IPO?

There are 2 types of person willing to BUY on this stock:
1. Dumb users who are hyped and using FB as a Daily social networking site. Which dont know much on Stock Valuation.
2. Hedge Fund Managers who know how to control stocks and have long term outlook on its income.

But hey, I am the 3rd type of person NOT willing to Buy this stock for a lots of reason:
1. Original IPO price is at 36 USD per share, in an overnight meeting, stock price was increased to 38 a piece. Boosting them extra Billions overnight.
2.  FB needs to earn 1Billion Dollars a year, to make its 18Billion IPO value worth it. Assuming 18 P/E is a good valuation ratio.
3. Looking at todays trading, it even rarely got above 38 USD, When it went to almost 43 a piece, sellers seems to sell down even to the last 38.00 tick.
4. IPO day reflects the valuation of a stock, and todays trading shows it doesnt even go high.
5. The issuers of FB (Morgan Stanley and other institutions) are controlling the 1st day trading to hold aboove 38 mark, as it is their job to make sure it doesnt fall below by using Oversubscription powers/money, using Billions of Dollars to maintain the price, the question is, until when can they do it?

Many reasons NOT to buy, but many reasons to USE Facebook. For me, until FB shows clear direction how they can earn the 1B a year, until then that I will think twice buying this stock.