AGI, GTCAP, MEG, PNB, EDC, PGOLD, TEL, MBT, SMC supports to look into 5-31-2013

BUY: BDO, FGEN,LPZ HOLD/LIGHTEN: AC, TEL 5-28-2013

UPGRADED TO BUY: BDO, FGEN, LPZ

 

Trade the range and buy into ascending triangle.

BUY: near 90.0 with max uptrend support of 88.0, 85.0, 83.0 target support when went sideways

TARGET: 97.0

P/E: fairly valued at 18.0, RSI at 42

 

Bad news regarding malfunction and fire in one of FGEN's plant, and decreasing almost half of its output in that area. It may take some hit into some losses and less profit,but long-term, its still a good prospect.

A perfect head and shoulder pattern was formed with a neckline equivalent target to 20.0 as the perfect support. FGEN already lost 30% of its value, and its now looking attractive assuming it get back to the typical earnings it gets on a Quarter basis.

BUY: near 20.0, very strong support. Next buying support at 19.0 then 18.0

P/E: 10.5X, lands the cheapest energy sector assuming earnings are solid. RSI at 31

 

 After EDC's Bacman failure, now FGENs' plant was 50% shut down due to fire, making LPZ prone to lower valuation.

BUY: Long term uptrend support is at 5.85 but a BUY near 6.0 is already recommended

P/E: 8x, cheap for a conglomerate, RSI at 15.95, oversold

 DOWNGRADED to HOLD/SELL/LIGHTEN: AC, TEL

  

AC is one of the most held stock by a fund, or equity fund, and with its current price relative to earnings, we think its already in the upper range, and ALI, BPI and GLO has already been set into this price.

Downgraded to HOLD/LIGTHEN/SELL: near 660.
P/E overpriced at 38x.

Suggested to re enter near:
1. 590
2. 550 (preferably when able to hit)

TEL in the NYSE has already corrected 3% from the peak, but TEL in PH still is hovering around the upper long term uptrend channel.

Downgraded to HOLD/LIGHTEN/SELL: near 3250
Suggested to re enter:
1. 3000 level
2. 2900 level (preferably when able to hit)

P/E: slightly overpriced at 19X , RSI at 60

Philippines, Dow Jones, Australia,Germany, HK preview 5-27-2013

 

 Philippines formed a negative divergence since the 15% rally from March to May 2013. Giving up almost 300 pts already since the 7400 high. We still continue to see some weakness on this overvalued (23x P/E) yet strong GDP economy in Asia.

We have a trade the range pattern and suggested support to re enter market at around 6930-7000 level near the 50MA.

If all went wrong, next sideways support is at 6700 then 6400. 6400 has an estimate of 21X P/E. Still above the 15X average in the West, and 18X average in Asia.

 

Dow Jones continued to make new highs till mid-May, making a 20% rally for the past 6 months. We find the rally too much for the timespan, and the recent selloff may still persist and continues on a sideways to down pattern.

Overall it's a short to medium term uptrend lines are still intact with 15000 as immediate support for thisuptrend.

Regarding EW Analysis, we are anticipating that uptrend may end soon, and is due to for correction. There are 2 cases possibly going to happen anytime soon(50-50 chance):

1. If Dow reaches back to 15452 or above, its trying to finish the minute wave v of this intermediate wave iii rally. Then a sharp pullback.

2. If Dow continues to lower and break below14890-15000. What we are experiencing now is the intermediate wave iv correction which could be ranging from 5-10%, estimate is around 8.9% based on the Oct-Nov 2012 correction.

 Long Term Dow Weekly charts, we still see long term uptrend with higher channel nearing highs and is prone to possible pullbacks.

Long term, EW Analysis suggests that after intermiedate wave iv correction, there is still an intermediate wave v rally to end Major Wave 3, then Major Wave 4 and 5 to finish Primary Wave III. Then Primary Wave IV before bull market ends at Primary Wave V.

This could take months or years, depending on wave structures,so goodluck.

A meltdown in Europe especially Recession issues could wreck or shorten this bull market.

 Australia's rally since June 2012 is still intact and from our last post, we noted that AU may have a hard time to get out of 5250 level. Priced at 21x P/E, we still suggest to trade the range the AU Market.

Immediate support is at 4950 then uptrend support at 4700.

 Germany grew only 0.1% QoQ GDP. Unexpectedly low but on a positive note. France fell out on a recession after contracting 2 consecutive quarters. Although France proclaimed a recession, I wonder why Markets doesnt react yet, maybe they all expect the worst is already here, or Investment companies are slowly getting out of the market.

Technically speaking, Germany is still in good shape for its uptrend, but may get to as low as 8000 in the next weeks to come. Uptrend support for medium term is also at 7750. Germany is fairly priced at 15X P/E. Only growth issues are the problems for now.

 HK didnt make out above 23500, the first resistance of this sideways market. I still dont believe this 10X P/E market is still trading below expectations, but o well, this market is a great trade-the-range play every now and then.

Immediate support is at 22000 followed by 21500. I still believe a re entry to 21500-22000 is an opportunity to trade this sideways to up market, with a price target of 23500-24000.

SPX,SPX monthly, HK, AU, Germany, Germany monthly 5-6-2013

Normally we counted this 6months rally to end soon ending Major Wave 3 near 1600. But now, seems that its wave structures inside Major Wave 3 is extending, especially the intermediate wave iii, the 4% correction we had weeks ago was counted as intermediate wave iv, and this final rally should end near 1620-1650 to end Major Wave 3. Quite extended than what we expected.

Taking into short term, we are possibly in the minute wave iii of intermediate wave v. And a small decline of 0.5%-2% to finish minute wave iv, and end a 1%-2% rally to around 1620-1650 hopefully ends this 6months rally. Negative divergence of MACD and RSI on Daily charts still shows something is coming to relax the markets.

P/E ratio - Fairly valued at 14.8x

SPX Monthly Charts above shows that we are inside the Primary Wave III rally, and just only finishing the intermediate wave iii, the anticipated intermediate wave iv correction is being waited by everyone all around the globe. And many are already upset that rallies are continuous even tho many people say "sell in May and go away".

Well, technically speaking,yes, we are in due for correction, but these wave structures of Elliot Wave overextend from time to time, and Negative Divergence already shows some weakness.

Fundamentally speaking, some important schedules to look into this May:
- May 15 - Germany GDP
- May 3rd week - UK GDP, Europe unemployment

Hopefully, the minute wave iv and minute wave v for intermediate wave v end by next week, coincide with May 15. Crossing my fingers that Germany will upset Global Economy.

Australia markets almost did a false breakdown below 5000 level, now its on a sideways pattern on 5000-5180, and we have a target of 5250 resistance once it clears the current resistance.

HOLD - Trade the range 5000-5180 for this 21X market. Lighten once it goes below 5000.

HongKong, the weakest in Asia still is in a very slow Uptrend/Sideways pattern. We noted last week that 21500 is a good entry, and it did made a good bounce back to 23000 in just weeks time, we still see this market as a good trading opportunity. Although we dont see HK to easily break out of 24000, trade the 21500-24000 is already a good return short term.

Fairly cheap at 10x. China news and its index are just dragging HK markets down.

Germany DAX is extending its gains making 52week and all time highs, its resistance is just around 81xx to 8200. Germany is slightly fair valued at 16X P/E, and making Global Economy rally because no bad news over Europe is taking place over the 6 months period.

The dip last Mar-Apr to 7400 was actually a good entry point for the trade the range.

HOLD - Trade the range when it goes below the uptrend channel.

Europe is seeing Bull Market characteristics after making 52 week highs. Its rally since 2009 already made 200% rally from 4000 to 8000.

May 15 is the day where Germany will once again release its Q1 2013 GDP. Everyone expects it to grow around 0.5%. Well for me, Im wishing that it contracts even just a simple Negative 0.2% will do. Just to calm this rally and pose a tolerable amount of correction.