Friday, July 26, 2013

Quick Tip on equity funds trading 7-26-2013

Back in May 2013, I cut my China positions via HSBC fund online, and it should have been a breakeven for charges/fees.

After few days, the NAV of that fund skipped the day I cut my positions, and I sent a complain to investments team why there was no NAV price on that very day.

Investments team replied that it was a Holiday in Luxemburg! And the supposed to be breakeven turned into 2% loss.

On that day forward, I promise to remember the Luxemburg holidays to avoid faulty trading strategies. :)

Know your funds well and keep track on their Holidays :)

* Most fund houses register their funds/ETFs in Luxemburg.













































































Thursday, July 25, 2013

SPX and PSE forecast 7-26-2013













SPX and Dow has already reached our target upside for its short term downtrend lines. SPX or S&P500 has already reached 1700 level and looks to be quite weak.

Now that upside has been hit, we are now focusing on the possible make or break of US markets to the upside or to another correction.

We are actually above and in the new All-Time-High territory, but a breakout must have more than 2% rally into the upside with a tolerable amount of gap, but as of today, it seems so weak,and a false breakout to new all time high will lead us again to a decline, and a gap up means 2-5% rally to new highs.

Based on Elliot Wave count, we may:

a. finishing the minor wave 5 of Major wave 3 of Primary Wave III, and continuation decline/correction of major wave 4 is coming, with downside of 5-12% (raised to 70%)

b. mini wave 5 is on the line,and 4 more minor waves up before we see major wave 4 correciton (30%)

Percentage is based on the chance regarding the overall market conditions. Any breaking news may affect our forecast.










PSE unexpected broke out of 6600-6630 level and reached our first resistance at 6800, the stronger resistance at 6877 is just around the corner,but didnt able to visit it yet. TEL is major driver into PSE market, with its exdate in Aug, PSE could float above 6600 until TEL gives out it's dividend.

PSE also retraced 61.8% of its correction. A strong resistance area.

There is NO buying recommendation for PSE yet until we hit 6600 level or below. For now,what we do is profit taking on most conglomerate and property/energy stocks.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

PSE bumped into 6800 intraday 7-24-2013

PSE bumped into 6800-6900 resistance after breaking out from 6600 level. Jump out? Or wait till 6900 level? Confused.

Monday, July 22, 2013

US, PSE, HK, Germany, AU updates and forecasts 7-22-2013


 
Since our last post on July 12, we are anticipating that US may inch up near the all time high or even break it above. But with recent price movements, it looks like that we may confirm the 5 mini waves up that might:

1 - end the Int Wave V of Major Wave 3 of this Primary Wave III Bull Market, and Major Wave 4 correction will take place.(65%)
2 - the 5 mini waves is just the minor wave 1 and 4 waves to come before the Major Wave 4 correction. (35%)

* Major Wave 4 correction of Primary Wave III is expected to range from 5-12%

 For PSE, if US does not move up to new highs, we may also be stucked on the 6600-6650 resistance. And a move to new highs of US will upgrade our resistance to 6800-6900. A good uptrend channel is seen on the daily charts.



 






Thursday, July 11, 2013

SPX and PSE forecast, Germany,HK,AU Charts 7-12-2013


 As expected, the Int Wave iv correction ended last June 2013 at around 1500-1570 and a quick rally to 52 week high will be in place.

Now that we are currently in or near the 52 week high, we need to reevaluate again since we already hit our preliminary target range.

The current count using EW is that we could just be in the minor 3 rally.

Below are the possible forecasts and scenarios:
1. Minor 3 will stop at current level, then Minor 4 small correction then finish Minor 5 at 52 week high(no new all time high - 50%)
2. Minor 3 will overextend to new all time high, Minor 4 will correct small portion and Minor 5 will finish 2-5% higher than the current all time high(40%)
3. Worst is to worst, this recent visit to 52 week high is the Int Wave V. and Correction for Major Wave 4 will take in place (10%)

As to PSE, if DOW/SPX break out and make new all time high,PSE will then also breakout of 6600 level with target of 6800-6900.





Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Oil confirmed breakout: expect heavy increase in oil prices 7-11-2013





























Crude and NYMEX Oil broke out of its 1 yr resistance and rallied 8% after the breakout (98 to 106).

Our USDPHP=x is unchanged at 43.xx making imports cost more, so expect the 8% rally to be passed on to consumers.

Expect Diesel and Gasoline prices to increase again by 1.50 to 2.50 pesos in the next days/weeks.

Resistances of Crude Oil:
106 then 110.50 and 114.0

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

US High Yield Bonds - and my top 2 holdings as alternative investments 7-10-2013

Top 2 US High Yield Fund that I currently own:

Hield Yield (HY) Bonds or as they call Junk Bonds usually offer good return vs safe assets, they are somewhat risky when the company does not do well or its country is not helping them when they are in need.

But for US HY Bonds, its pretty safer than other HY Bonds (80% component is in US), US in particular tends to take care companies which are in need or in decline, that's why I chose these 2 funds with highly invested US Corporate debts which return 7.29% and 7.92% gross respectively and pay monthly dividends. Yes that's right, monthly (7.92% / 12 )

HY Bonds usually are OK when the country(U.S.) are:
-strong and has no default issues
- growing economy
- low interest rate
- consists of many medium graded junk bonds (BB and up)


But last June 2013, HY Bonds took a beating, losing 2-3% of its peak value, due to increasing interest rates and US market correction(7.5%), making these HY Bonds less in NAV value.

Still I think these HY Bonds offer greater return than any other investments out there with tolerable risks(as stated above).

So for me, instead of putting all to Equity, these 2 HY Bonds are my top choices as alternative which give good return and I personally own them together with some US Treasury Bonds/Funds.

** HY Bond components have risk of default and flactuate more depending on market rates rather than US Treasuries,so know when to buy and get out.

*** HY Bonds usually correct a lot when market corrects deep, which is a good time to BUY, and HY Bonds usually rallies as well when market overshoots up, which is an opportunity to SELL

#1. HSBC Fund Code: U62527 -  
BlackRock Global Funds–US Dollar High Yield Bond F(A6–USD-MDIST-CASH)

Top 5 bond holdings country exposure
Country exposure %
United States 79.53
Luxembourg 4.14
Canada 3.81
United Kingdom 3.15
Ireland 1.61
Top 10 holdings
Holding % of net asset
Engy Future Inter Hldg Co Ll 10% 1.18
Gmac Cap Tr I Pfd 1.03
Cds: (Cdx.Na.Hy.20.V1) 5 06/20/2018 Bbsw 0.96
General Mtrs Cv 0.89
Gmac 8% 0.88
Novelis 8.75% 0.83
Fmg Resources August 2006 Pt 144A 6.375% 0.82
Caesars Oper Escrow 144A 9% 0.79
Hd Sply 144A 7.5% 0.74
Sprint Nextel 144A 9% 0.70
% of asset in Top 10 holdings 8.83

Dividend Information

(as of 30-06-2013)

Target distribution frequency:
Monthly
Dividend yield:
7.29%
Last dividend paid (per unit):
USD 0.03
Last ex-dividend date:
28-06-2013

Dividend yield is the dividend amount declared over the past twelve months as a percentage of the last month-end fund unit price, show in 2 decimal places. The amount of dividend may not be guaranteed by Fund House.

Yield And Credit Information
(as of 30-04-2013)

Average current yield:
6.79%
Average yield to maturity:
5.40%
Average duration:
0.39 years
Average credit quality:
B


Credit quality breakdown:

%
%
AAA 0.00 BB 28.40
AA 0.00 B 47.00
A 0.00 Below B 20.80
BBB 2.20 Not Rated 1.60









Fund size (Million):
USD 4,874.23
(as of 28-06-2013)
Fund manager
(Start date):
James Keenan (01-06-2007)
MitchellS. Garfin (08-05-2009)
Derek Schoenhofen (08-05-2009)
Fund house:
BlackRock (Hong Kong) Limited







#2.  HSBC Fund Code: U62498
Allianz US High Yield Fund (Class AM -H2- USD -MDIST-Cash)        
Top 5 bond holdings country exposure
Country exposure %
United States 91.71
Canada 2.67
Luxembourg 2.02
Bermuda 1.24
United Kingdom 1.15
Top 10 holdings
Holding % of net asset
ArcelorMittal19 SrN 1.15
Everest Acq Llc/Finance 9.375% 1.06
Kinetic Concepts 10.5% 1.00
United Rentals North Amer 8.375% 0.98
Ally Finl 8% 0.98
First Data 12.625% 0.98
Reynolds Grp Issuer 9.875% 0.98
Swift Svcs Hldgs 10% 0.97
Mcclatchy 144A 9% 0.95
Navistar Intl Corp New 8.25% 0.95
% of asset in Top 10 holdings 9.98
Dividend Information

(as of 30-06-2013)

Target distribution frequency:
Monthly
Dividend yield:
7.92%
Last dividend paid (per unit):
USD 0.07
Last ex-dividend date:
17-06-2013

Dividend yield is the dividend amount declared over the past twelve months as a percentage of the last month-end fund unit price, show in 2 decimal places. The amount of dividend may not be guaranteed by Fund House.

Yield And Credit Information
(as of 30-04-2013)

Average current yield:
7.97%
Average yield to maturity:
6.74%
Average duration:
3.06 years
Average credit quality:
B

Credit quality breakdown:


%
%
AAA 0.00 BB 27.91
AA 0.00 B 56.98
A 0.00 Below B 10.03
BBB 5.09 Not Rated 0.00
Fund size (Million):
USD 5,737.71
(as of 28-06-2013)
Fund manager
(Start date):
DouglasG. Forsyth (02-08-2010)
Brit Stickney (02-08-2010)
Fund house:
Allianz Global Investor Hong Kong Limited

Monday, July 8, 2013

SPX update: now at resistance short term 7-9-2013







US continues to rally, hitting above 50% retracement since its downtrend lows last June. US is the only market in the world which is near its 52 week highs, almost 3-4% from its high. The rest especially Asia is 3-4% from its lows.

We continue to forecast where US can go, and after we finish this Int Wave V, we expect another correction of around 5-10%, before make new highs(50%), or we make new highs before Int Wave V finishes(50%).

But for now, let us wait and see if DOW and SPX can breakout short term on its downtrend lines.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

USD is telling a story on a possible crisis soon 7-4-2013




Chart: http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

Just would like to share this chart by Daneric and would like to express what this could mean.

Basically the US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared only with "baker" of 6 other major currencies which are:

    Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
    Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
    Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
    Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
    Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
    Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

USDX goes up when the US dollar gains "strength" (value) when compared to other currencies. (Wikipedia)

Now that we know that if USDX suddenly gaps up and break out of its 10yr downtrend lines, it gains strength, and #1 currency to get hammered down is EUR, a low EUR is also bad,which means EU crisis is possible happening or its Economy is not doing good. The Head and Shoulder pattern targets 100, meaning 1:1 for USD:EUR is probable, shocking? lets see in years to come. Actually it's possibly going there somehow, US economy is strenthening slowly,and EU in any area is deteriorating.

Putting all together, this chart could mean that if USDX breakout happens, a EU crisis or Asian crisis in particular could be in place soon or in the years to come.

** USDX breakout means USD strengthens and investors return back their money to US Dollar, and may not directly mean US Equities will fall.

How amazing charts are! Enjoy!

Oil at 10month high 7-3-2013

Oil has broke out short term and hit 101 per barrel as of this hour.

Gas up your cars as this price movement may keep Oil above 98 resistance for couple of weeks/months.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

PSE update: possible breakout,but watch for corrective waves 7-2-2013