Wednesday, October 24, 2018
US and global equities selloff, what happened? 10-11-2018
What caused US to selloff?
There's a lot of reasons:
1. US 10year yield reached multi year highs near 3.20%
2. SPX and DJI both 24X P/E ratio, near the highs of 26-30x where typical bull market ends
3. SPX and DJI broke below short term uptrend, but Medium term uptrend still intact
4. We are in the key area where 10YR bond - 2YR bond = near 0 or negative levels (usually near 0 or negative cause panic in Equity and shift into save haven or bonds)
SPX uptrend short/medium term still intact. Meaning most people still invest in US since rate is high, but question is until what rate would make US investors shift from Equities to Bonds/Gold.
My guess is when US int rate peaked at Q2 2019. US Equities may end there as well.
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