DOW, SPX, Germany and VIX status 7-18-2012

Dow Jones and SPX has now reached the upper resistance levels of their Medium Term Downtrend resistance. 60mins also shows some negative divergence forming..

In order for US Markets to edge back higher, must breakout of 12800 for DOW and 1364 for SPX. And defend the 12500 and 1334 levels.

Short Term: Uptrend

Short Term Elliot Wave Count: minor wave iii forming of Major Wave 3 of Primary Wave III. Or a possible Bearish B top of ABC Corrective pattern of Major Wave 2 of Primary Wave III.

Medium Term: Downtrend channel still continues.

Long Term: Uptrend still intact. (tho Ultimate Monthly 50MA and 200MA near to cross)

China is still the weakest Emerging Market in terms of ROI for the past 2 years. Its -61% from its 34xx peak last 2010. And attempting to break even lower into 2009 lows. Must hold 2150 support line,else 1600-2150 has long way to find support.

Germany on the other hand is looking good SHORT-TERM. Its short term uptrend channel is still intact with a 5% trading range channel. Germany and other European nations are making things ready to produce their Q2 2012 GDP numbers,maybe by end of July up to Mid-August. Must expect more price reaction,especially if Germany falls to negative GDP territory again.

Short Term: Uptrend

Medium-Long Term: Downtrend at Major resistance(3yr) at 7000, then 5yr resistance at 7400.

Strategy: Looking to slowly turn to cash when Germany reaches 6800, or to Short it as well as Global Equities when it hits 7000 where 3yr downtrend resistance resides.

VIX is starting to reach levels where “too bullish” levels are retraced. VIX closed at 16.48, near the 12-15 levels, where people became too bullish into the markets, sometimes VIX is a good indicator when to sell, as VIX computes for Volatility Index of the Markets.

Examples where VIX hit the range and Market became short term/long term peaks:

April 2012 – 13.66 (DOW at 13336)

April 2011 – 14.27 (DOW at 12876)

April 2010 – 15 (DOW at 11258)

Dec 2006- 9.39 (Dow at 14xxx)

Mostly April huh? “Sell in May and go away”

SPX rallies and defended 1334 Critical Support, GDP, Economic Calendar 7-15-2012

 

SPX, DOW and Nasdaq survived the breakdown threat and reverses the loses with at 1.6% rally last Friday. The world is safe again - for now.

Looking at the price reaction, we are hoping that another leg up could possibly under way, and the false breakdown to 1325 SPX may just be a trap - for now.  

Elliot wave analysis suggests that in a Bull Market, waves are composed of 5 waves up, wether frames are small or big. In this case, we are hoping that minute wave iii of Minor Wave 3 could possibly underway back to 1375 or higher, then a pull back before ending Minor Wave 3 with minute wave v possibly near 2 yr high.

We are still have to defend the Critical 1334 Support of SPX.

Short Term: Correction may have ended, Rally to 1365 resistance highly coming into the next trading days. May bump into that strong downtrend resistance.

Medium Term: Downtrend channel still intact at 1365 Major Resistance.

Long Term:SPX uptrend still intact at 1265.

My Personal Trade: Looking to exit at 1365, and no long investment on Equities for the year, until GDP and Unemployment of Europe stabilizes into Positive Territory.

 

Source: TradingEconomics.com

Q2 was actually a bad month for GDP all across the Globe, China GDP at only 7.6% growth, and then, once there was Singapore and Malaysia shining, acting as relocation sites of U.S. based companies and central hub of Asia, now they are in need of huge jump in terms of growth, as their GDP tumbles to negative territory, Singapore Contracted 0.9% for Q2 2012, and Malaysia contracted 3.2%. Another tumble for Q3 will make this countries into Recession. An unexpected one for these Emerging Asian Markets.

Economic Calendars to look forward into:

July 18 - U.K. Unemployment Numbers

July 24 - Germany GDP

August 14 - Europe GDPs

Source: Scotiabank

Critical SPX support must hold 7-12-2012

Today is a very important day for Equity Trading all over the Globe, Asia just lost 1-2% by U.S. futures, as China Q2 GDP will be released, estimate of 7.5% growth. Negative news as well, as Korea unexpectedly lowers intererest rates since 2009. An unexpected for this Emerging Asian Country. Spain Debts jitters the bad news flow as well.

Futures not looking any good, and its the last support SPX must maintain to stay uptrend short term and possibly medium term/long term.

1334 is the wall to cover and defend, if it breaks below, our mini 1-2-3 rally can just be mini a-b-c corrective pattern.

Elliot Wave Analysis also suggest that a break below this 1334 will trigger more selloff going back to 1262, and may see new low to the RED 3yr long term uptrend line, near 1255.

Crossing my fingers that today SHOULD be a GREEN day.. else, doomsday scenario is back again.

Meanwhile, EUR currency Long Term is pushing down into multi year lows on its Long Term Downtrend Lines. Its now trading at 1.2200 and poised to have its 5th wave down with a price target of 119.xx, its Multi-year low last 2010. We expect EUR to pause at that level for a while,before any price action may confirm the next wave.

My Fearless Forecast. 1USD = 1EUR, anytime from 2012-2020.

SPX and Germany Update 7-9-2012

 

SPX has its best Month, hovering 7% rally for month of June. After hitting 1365, we somewhat expected for a longer pause for some reasons:

1. 70% retracement of entire May drop

2. Resistance of downtrend resistance.

We might adjust the downtrend channcel from 1422 to 1365, and if the market doesnt hold on that 1354 level. We might see the short term uptrend support, which is at 1334.

Any case where market drops 1334.. It's back to bearish mode.

Elliot wave analysis suggest that this is probably a minor wave iv correction, and a rally back to 1365 is highly possible.

Short Term: Uptrend. Stay near the 1334 support

Medium Term: Downtrend channel could still be intact

Long Term: Uptrend since 2009 still intact.

Looking at Germany, our dependent market bellwether for Europe, its possibly showing that we have already broken out from the Medium Term downtrend, and short term uptrend is likely high, thus the drop is just a correction.

Let us see in a few days if Germany revisit 6270-6300 to find its Short Term Uptrend support and channel lines.

PSE Stock Snapshots: FLI, MEG, EDC,FGEN, AGI, BPI 7-4-2012