SPX, Germany, France, China, HK, Indonesia snapshots 12-5-2013

SPX update and forecast 12-3-2013

SPX lost 4.9 pts last night, and closed at 1800. Some reasons that a quick/long correction should be happening at this level:

1. 1802-1812 is the area of the 1.618% projection of Wave 1.
2. 1812 is also the area of the upper resistance of the entire 4.5year bull market
3. Negative divergence on MACD and RSI on the daily charts.
4. Primary Wave I length in terms of time is nearing to be EQUAL to current's Primary Wave III. which will expire around this month to next month. (It's just a fun fact to match time equality, but sometimes it is a good indicator as well)

Upon counting waves, we can also clearly see 5 minor waves topping out soon, topping out Primary Wave III, or Major Wave 3 or even to as small as Int Wave iii

Forecast is still same as last week:

50% chance - 3-5% correction within Dec, then Xmas rally till end of year to early next year to finish Primary Wave III before a 10-20% drop. (SPX must not close below 1777 for this to happen)

30% chance - we have found the peak of this year, and correction for Primary Wave IV started last night.

20% chance - last night's correction was enough to extend another rally till end of year. (too bullish)( will happen once we get another all time high this week)

PSEi mid day update 12-2-2013

PSEi went above 6200 resistance and reached 6260 intra day, but closed near 6200 at 12noon. if PSEi goes above 6200, we see still see an alternative downward resistance at 6260.

Market is a bit tricky, market must go above 6200 and 6260 , before we can declare that short term downtrend probably is over - and could be going to a sideways to up pattern or sideways pattern.

If PSEi resumes its downtrend:
1st support 5950
2nd support 5700-5800

AORD, ASX200, possibly broke down on its medium term uptrend 12-2-2013

ASX200 (AU index, ^AORD) possibly broke down today on its medium term uptrend since June 2013 rally.

The index is -0.80% as of 1030am SGT 12/2/2013 and broke below the uptrend support at 5300.

We are looking looking another alternative uptrend support form July 2013, which is around 5240. If it hold from this level, we may re confirm the current trend.

TEL possibly forming a short term bottom 11-29-2013

TEL bottomed short term after hitting 2572. Bought a few shares near 2582 and is expected to reach 2700 level.

TEL recently broke down from 2700 level and now became a resistance, if TEL manage to get up to above 2700, we may see it reach up to 2750-2790 until end of year.

PSEi manage to get up by few hundred points with the help of overbought rallies of TEL,MBT,BDO, SM and others.

PSEi resistance is now at 6,200, where it broke down recently.
6200 resistance :
- where it broke down
- downtrend line since end of Oct
- 50% retracement of Nov 18 peak before it went down near 59xx level.