Trendlines support and forecast: Dow, Philippines, Hk, Australia, Germany, UK 6-6-2013

Dow Jones fell another 200 pts, making it 5% from the all time high. e continue to look into all Global Markets closely especially Dow Jones, in order to predict accurately where will the Global Markets go.

As of this moment, its hanging into an important cliff, which may lead into more selloffs (like what happened last Oct-Dec2012, which lasted for 2months, and Int 1 and Int 2 of Elliot Wave Analysis.

Assuming that the All time high last few weeks ago was Int 3, and currently is Int 4, are we assuming that we are going to be breaking down on this 7month uptrend line? Let us see in the coming days/weeks to come.

If ever it breaks down, target of 14000-14500 for next supports. Hold and watch for clear direction.


Australia has already shed off 9% since hitting 5200. Its currently priced at 18X, slightly overvalued, and chart above is the 2nd alternative way into looking this technically.

Initial target support is 4770. an uptrend one. But when looking into Fibonacci, we have target supports of:
31.8% -4835
50% - 4625
61.8% - 4490

The sideways breakdown also has a span of 300pts,which target support of 4600. Trade the range.

HK still underperforming in Asia, its last's 52 week high was Feb 2013,and was not able to reach a new one this May. We still see this market as cheap, with fundamental P/E at 10x.

Its short term uptrend broke down at 22500,and we are looking into its sideways and long term uptrend lines support.

I still recommend trade the range on this market, BUY near 21500 or 21000 with a target of 23000 to 24000 as resistances.




Philippines followed Japan's blood bath, returning 15% as of today when it hit 6400. Its rally since Oct 2011 (4000) to 7400 was really spectacular (85%). Which makes this correction practically "healthy".

We hit 6400 today, the most recommended support for this correction, its already recommended to BUY some cheap stocks, but make sure to trade the range as we might see more lows if US breaks down below its uptrend line.

Fibonacci retracements:
31.8% - 6400-6500
50% - 5900-6000

Watch out also if it makes a head and shoulder pattern, with the right shoulder probably hitting 6800 levels, 20% chance it happens, but if it happens, a target downside of 5800 is advised.

P/E is still at 19x, slightly overvalued, but still cheaper than 23x when it hits 7400.

Germany just lost 7% and still looking strong. Maybe Europe is also waiting for US' movement. P/E at 14x

UK ( the first major country to hit recession) just lost 7% as well and still looking strong. Maybe Europe is also waiting for US' movement. P/E at 14x

AC, AGI, GTCAP, LPZ, MEG, MPI, TEL and PGOLD, find supports 6-5-2013

Philippine Index fell off sharply since it peaked at 7400. As of today noon, it is at 6584. Around 11.1% decline since the peak. I personally awaited this long (6mos) just to see our market "correct sharply" in order to be healthy. And now we are in this scenario, there are still opportunities and dont let others make you panic or tell you what to do. Congratulations to those who earned a lot and was able to collect their gains, and for those who's gains are swept off, hopefully this could be a learning lesson for us in the future.

Some tips I want to give is that:

First, just relax, our Economy is still strong, and maybe the strongest in Asia, having 7.8% GDP QoQ, equal or higher to China's GDP.
Second, this correction is probably brought by many concerns:
      - High P/E Value at 23.0
      - Steep 35% rally for the past 12months
      - Overvaluation is set in place
      - Correction in US could really be coming
Third, We dont want to waste our bullets(money) for now, take time to slowly get into the markets, as much as possible, stay closest to the supports, and dont buy into breakouts, as breakouts sometime are falsely made by Big Traders.
Fourth, Decide on your own, its your money, and dont let any Insurance, friends or even family tie you up saying they gained 20% in just 6 months.
Fifth, there is no investment in this world that returns double digit STRAIGHT in 5 or 10years, eventually there will be times that correction or sideways pattern will YIELD to investments.
Lastly, Do not put your eggs in one basket, separate them, not into different stocks, but into different investments like ROP, Cash, MMF, TD or even different currency. Cash is still king, and Japanese people nowadays preserve 50% of their Cash in banks, since they got traumatized with their Economy's collapse since 1990s that wasnt able to get back to their highs. Life is a cycle, dont blame other people, learn from it and decide on your own.

For this post, we focus other Philippine Holdings and companies, attached 5yr trendlines and most are Uptrend, possibly BUY into strongest support and if you bought early, make sure you still have money to average into next Supports. Long term Supports like below tend to hold 90% all the time when Economy globally is OK, so find your own target supports. Goodluck!

Tips on this Downturn Index, and Banks Long term support 6-5-2013

Philippine Index fell off sharply since it peaked at 7400. As of today noon, it is at 6584. Around 11.1% decline since the peak. I personally awaited this long (6mos) just to see our market "correct sharply" in order to be healthy. And now we are in this scenario, there are still opportunities and dont let others make you panic or tell you what to do. Congratulations to those who earned a lot and was able to collect their gains, and for those who's gains are swept off, hopefully this could be a learning lesson for us in the future.

Some tips I want to give is that:

First, just relax, our Economy is still strong, and maybe the strongest in Asia, having 7.8% GDP QoQ, equal or higher to China's GDP.
Second, this correction is probably brought by many concerns:
      - High P/E Value at 23.0
      - Steep 35% rally for the past 12months
      - Overvaluation is set in place
      - Correction in US could really be coming
Third, We dont want to waste our bullets(money) for now, take time to slowly get into the markets, as much as possible, stay closest to the supports, and dont buy into breakouts, as breakouts sometime are falsely made by Big Traders.
Fourth, Decide on your own, its your money, and dont let any Insurance, friends or even family tie you up saying they gained 20% in just 6 months.
Fifth, there is no investment in this world that returns double digit STRAIGHT in 5 or 10years, eventually there will be times that correction or sideways pattern will YIELD to investments.
Lastly, Do not put your eggs in one basket, separate them, not into different stocks, but into different investments like ROP, Cash, MMF, TD or even different currency. Cash is still king, and Japanese people nowadays preserve 50% of their Cash in banks, since they got traumatized with their Economy's collapse since 1990s that wasnt able to get back to their highs. Life is a cycle, dont blame other people, learn from it and decide on your own.

For this post, we focus on Philippine Banks, attached 5yr trendlines and most are Uptrend, possibly BUY into strongest support and if you bought early, make sure you still have money to average into next Supports. Long term Supports like below tend to hold 90% all the time when Economy globally is OK, so find your own target supports. Goodluck!

AGI, GTCAP, MEG, PNB, EDC, PGOLD, TEL, MBT, SMC supports to look into 5-31-2013

BUY: BDO, FGEN,LPZ HOLD/LIGHTEN: AC, TEL 5-28-2013

UPGRADED TO BUY: BDO, FGEN, LPZ

 

Trade the range and buy into ascending triangle.

BUY: near 90.0 with max uptrend support of 88.0, 85.0, 83.0 target support when went sideways

TARGET: 97.0

P/E: fairly valued at 18.0, RSI at 42

 

Bad news regarding malfunction and fire in one of FGEN's plant, and decreasing almost half of its output in that area. It may take some hit into some losses and less profit,but long-term, its still a good prospect.

A perfect head and shoulder pattern was formed with a neckline equivalent target to 20.0 as the perfect support. FGEN already lost 30% of its value, and its now looking attractive assuming it get back to the typical earnings it gets on a Quarter basis.

BUY: near 20.0, very strong support. Next buying support at 19.0 then 18.0

P/E: 10.5X, lands the cheapest energy sector assuming earnings are solid. RSI at 31

 

 After EDC's Bacman failure, now FGENs' plant was 50% shut down due to fire, making LPZ prone to lower valuation.

BUY: Long term uptrend support is at 5.85 but a BUY near 6.0 is already recommended

P/E: 8x, cheap for a conglomerate, RSI at 15.95, oversold

 DOWNGRADED to HOLD/SELL/LIGHTEN: AC, TEL

  

AC is one of the most held stock by a fund, or equity fund, and with its current price relative to earnings, we think its already in the upper range, and ALI, BPI and GLO has already been set into this price.

Downgraded to HOLD/LIGTHEN/SELL: near 660.
P/E overpriced at 38x.

Suggested to re enter near:
1. 590
2. 550 (preferably when able to hit)

TEL in the NYSE has already corrected 3% from the peak, but TEL in PH still is hovering around the upper long term uptrend channel.

Downgraded to HOLD/LIGHTEN/SELL: near 3250
Suggested to re enter:
1. 3000 level
2. 2900 level (preferably when able to hit)

P/E: slightly overpriced at 19X , RSI at 60