Korea, HongKong, China, Australia, Germany, London market snapshots for Daily and Weekly Charts 12-28-2011

2011 will end in few days time, and compared to 2010 yearend's bullish-ness, 2011 ended with almost all charts below on Bearish trend or neutral level. 2012 may not be a great year, expect things to come up better soon, as P/E ratio is not that bad enough. It’s just that EUR Debts are inevitable and causing tremoil all over the Globe. Remain Cash and Buy on Weaknesses.

Korea - 13 P/E
Hong Kong - 8 P/E
China - 12 P/E
Australia - 13.5 P/E
Germany - 10.5 P/E
London - 10.5 P/E

Currency:Eur to Usd 12-28-2011

Currency Traders: EUR currency is in the risk of having a breakdown below 1.29 Major Support. after it revisited 1.29xx last week, it just bounced to a maximum of 1.30xx, not a good correction, might be a sign that in weeks/months time, it will break down its support. A possible EUR controversial news could lead the break down.

Merry xmas to everyone 12-25-2011

Merry Christmas to everyone!!!

and what we expected came with an astonishingly good santa claus rally!

just 2 weeks ago, the selloff short term gave a huge confirmation that santa claus rally may come. And at this point in time, our target is already achieved and let us clap clap clap for the good year.

Let us celebrate 2011 with a big bang filled with good experience in life. 1H was so good that we never looked back and give chance for bears to run along. Until Europe rattled the world. 2012 forecasts may not be bullish. Let us thank God for all the blessings and learnings we had.

Happy Holidays!!!!

We may expect a Xmas Rally to end 2011 12-18-2011

The recent selloff/correction in Europe/US, could lead to a small Xmas Rally. Add up the window dressing and the most linient selloff month, which is December, I have an estimate that, at best, DOW will close 12000-12400 by yearend. At worst 11k. Santa's gift to everyone is NOT to visit 10k-ish for DOW anytime this 2011.

Elliot Wave Analysis suggests that we are currently on the Mini Wave b to Mini Wave c to finish the Primary Bear Market B rally.

In addition, the Mini Wave b to Mini Wave c rally is still in good shape, and our tentative target time to finish Mini Wave c rally, has passed the 0.7 timeframe target which is on the Dec12th. The current pullback on EUR and US behavior is exactly what we are expecting.

Mini Wave c rally composed of 3 waves , we expect almost the same formation as the mini wave a rally last November.

I believe Santa would be nice to Europe and to the world, and mayhem/selloff may be dalayed toas early as Jan 1st week 2012.

.7 = 21 days = Dec 12th (removed)
1.0 = 30 days = Dec 30th
1.618 = 40-45days = Jan 15th 2012

Elliot Wave analysis of the DOW JONES 12-7-2011

Few weeks ago, we had planned the Bear Market Play of the Quarter with 5-12% return. We did confirm an a-b-c bear market rally patterns ending at 12284. And with the current trend, looks like we called it too early.




And upon further investigation on the current chart,looks like the first a-b-c pattern in just 30 short days, might be the letter "a" rally ONLY, and the sharp 9% pull back was the bear market "b" correction of the entire Primary wave B bear market rally.

a,b,c can both be used as:
a rally, b correction, c rally
a correction, b rally, c correction

Now, possibly in weeks or a month time, the wave c rally will ignite to finish the Bear market rally Primary Wave B. To estimate the timetable when we can hit the "c", using the length of "a", here are the timings to get to a range of 12200-12500 to end the "c" pattern.
0.618 = 18 days = Dec 9th (EU Summit)
.7 = 21 days = Dec 12th
1.0 = 30 days = Dec 30th
1.618 = 40-45days = Jan 15th 2012

After the a,b,c of Primary Wave B bear market rally. The next trend could be followed by a possible a,b,c,d,e downward selloff to finish the Primary Wave C bear market downtrend. Will do compute for price targets once we confirmed that it is not yet long term Bull Market.

I am still in bias that the current rallies are just waves of the Primary Wave B Bear Market Rally.Goodluck!

Make or Break,Dow Jones and China markets 12-4-2011

GLobal Markets and Dow Jones have peaked short term last Nov 1st-15th at around 12284.
The usual Bear Market rallies ranges from 1-3 months, with an average of 2 months rally. The 20% rally for almost 1 month was a possible Bear Market rally technically speaking. The very very very big question that comes to my mind and everyone's mind, is this a bull trap? Or we are already bullish in the market.

The unexpected drop of U.S. unemployement rate to 8.6% was intriguing. Did the drop really confirmed that Economy was gaining momentum,or was it just people are not claiming unemployment benefits anymore?

Next week is a whole lot of meetings, news , CPI numbers all over the globe. EU Meetings will be at the most critical stage and China will show up its CPI numbers. Expect the unexpected!

1. Bullish scenario - I am unfavor of this, but will share my insights in the case that this would be the result next week. DOW Jones may be medium/long term downtrend, but the short term rally concludes that the rally may not be over yet. the 20% rally looks very impressive, like a bull market behavior, and a good 8% pullback correction did happen. A bullish behavior still. Resistance is at 12000-12284. A breakout of that will temporary lead to 12450 resistance, and a confirmed breakout of 12450 resistance means, we are still in a bullish state. Lots of news could trigger this. Good China CPI, managable EU meetings, a 25bps or 50bps cut of rate in Europe, and a lot more.

2. Bearish scenario - 100% biased to happen. We don't know the results until next week's reports show off. the Bearish news that will make this downtrend continue are ECB disagreements, China bad CPI numbers, unresolvable dues of European Debts, Sending Greece out of European Nation and other probable worst case scenarios. Bearish count can be confirmed once it goes below the higher high, which is at 11200. A break below that could resume this downtrend. :) Watch out also for the first support around 11450, which is the RED short term uptrend line.

My reasons why I am still bearish despite optimistic about resuming to bullish state
- there is still no timetable, and targets for EU resolution
- China GDP is slowly going down, including production and exports imports.
- EUR/USD is attempting to break down the 1.32 mark.
- Greece bonds is running out of time, and the nth bailout wouldnt end this crisis.
- Portugal,Greece, HUngary bonds set to junk, possible next sets of downgrades could happen.
- a ticking timebomb/default could trigger a domino effect selloffs.
- we may breakout of the range, BUT the risks involved in EU will never fade in YEARS time.

My reasons to be bullish
- Improved unemployment rate
- EU willing to cut rates

With the risks involved, please respect my own decision where I stand upon right now...



Talking about the 2nd largest economy in the world. GDP is slowly going down, and may go down further.

SSEC is now at 12.36x PE Ratio, a good one, is also part of the crowd and decision making where will GLobal Markets go. Remember China lending and buying a lot of European bonds,China is one of the large dominos ready to be brought down by Europe if ever worst things happen.

Speaking about the technicals, it is now nearing the 2yr lows at 2300, and has no clear indication of getting a rally. Risk as of now is the breakdown below 2300 level, which could lead to China Bear market and lead it back to 1500 - 2000 levels.

DOW, HSI, DAX daily, DAX weekly, FTSE Daily, FTSE Weekly 11-24-2011

Here are the Equity Snapshots of the major index around the world:

In my own opinion, here is the arrangement where Global stocks follow:
U.S. > Asia > Europe
If U.S. and Asia is in good condition, Europe can be a very small growth, assuming growth is positive.

But the Europe meltdown is dragging all markets with very bad news,like defaults, skyrocketing and bond losing values, GDP getting near 0 GDP. which stands at:
Europe > U.S. > Asia

All Daily Charts looks bullish, since we had an enourmous 12% rally from the Oct bottom. But looking into weekly charts, we may see that worst is yet to come, trends starting to look bearish, and I have put some trendlines where and how low can Equities be medium to long term.

the game gets boring 11-22-2011

GLobal stocks has been very boring lately after hitting 52week high last APril2011. The date of my Post 11-22-11 is even more interesting that the markets.

No one expected the peak to be as short as that, even though I want to be very bullish, looking at the news tell us that something is really wrong in Europe, and they dont want to admit it. I even heard a news that Germany want to get out of the "euro zone", if the news is valid or not, I really admire their courage to say that, Imagine all of the people in your surroundings are carrying extreme virus, and you are the only one left standing tall with lots of energy to do things. Certainly, you would like to get out of the zone and have some fresh air.

Over the couple of months, I have a very limited trade:
- August 2011 - DOW Jones began to fall quickly into a danger zone (sold down 50% PSE stocks, and 10% USD Stocks/Equties)
-Oct 2011 - We predicted the Quarterly Bearish play of the market.
- entered the market at Dow 10,500, and sold at an Elliot Wave Primary Wave B target of 11750-12200. Gained 5-10%.
- End of Oct 2011 - market rallied 12% in 18 days (sold 25% PSE stocks,and liquidated 50% USD Stocks/Equities)
- Nov 2011 - Im sitting here, trying to forecast what's the trend, to know if we see a holocaust in the market, or re-visit the 12900. BUt on a deeper feeling, I am leaning towards a disastrous Primary Wave C bear market to reach as low as 8000-9500.

Cash balance: 80% PSE, 40% GLobal USD (40% remaining in High Yielding Corporate Bonds at 6-8% YTD)

Total bad assets/holdings: 20% PSE, 20% GLobal USD

I am lessening my post, since the typical Primary Wave A and Primary Wave B , the easiest to make money with is already done, and the upcoming scary forecast Primary Wave C is coming with an estimate time of 8mos to 24mos downturn duration, that history tells it is the most hard to make money area. I will be taking a vacation, and waiting for Euro Zone to default,or even finish their business, before I take time to define if its already TIME to get it.

Goodluck and braise yourself for a possible downturn as early as now. Stay in CASH. And I will surely the one to inform you guys, once the reward is greater than the risk. STay Safe!

MEG, BPI, HangSeng 11-17-2011

All PSE companies are nowhere to go, we have been stagnant for 4300-4370 for the past 2 weeks.

Some stocks like MEG and BPI are the only ones who tried to rally high despite European Crisis.

One of the largest property play was MEG, from a low of 1.70s, it went to as high as 2.08 yesterday, For me it is a Very Strong resistance point since it has been a downtrend channel for months time now. See chart.

On my own opinion, its a SELL, but Citisec is promoting that their analysis is a breakout and a trading but, let us see who got it correctly. Trading Buy near the downtrend channel 1.70-1.80.

Meanwhile, for BPI, they got a small Q3 2011 increase YOY, making the fair value at almost the same level, I remember when I sold my stock at 60-61, and it went to as high as 58 yesterday. A selling point? Yes, people sold off the news, now it came back to 55 level, and may be best to avoid this stock, Buy below 50 with BPI’s attitude to increase profits YOY.

Hong Kong Market.