Tuesday, November 22, 2011

the game gets boring 11-22-2011

GLobal stocks has been very boring lately after hitting 52week high last APril2011. The date of my Post 11-22-11 is even more interesting that the markets.

No one expected the peak to be as short as that, even though I want to be very bullish, looking at the news tell us that something is really wrong in Europe, and they dont want to admit it. I even heard a news that Germany want to get out of the "euro zone", if the news is valid or not, I really admire their courage to say that, Imagine all of the people in your surroundings are carrying extreme virus, and you are the only one left standing tall with lots of energy to do things. Certainly, you would like to get out of the zone and have some fresh air.

Over the couple of months, I have a very limited trade:
- August 2011 - DOW Jones began to fall quickly into a danger zone (sold down 50% PSE stocks, and 10% USD Stocks/Equties)
-Oct 2011 - We predicted the Quarterly Bearish play of the market.
- entered the market at Dow 10,500, and sold at an Elliot Wave Primary Wave B target of 11750-12200. Gained 5-10%.
- End of Oct 2011 - market rallied 12% in 18 days (sold 25% PSE stocks,and liquidated 50% USD Stocks/Equities)
- Nov 2011 - Im sitting here, trying to forecast what's the trend, to know if we see a holocaust in the market, or re-visit the 12900. BUt on a deeper feeling, I am leaning towards a disastrous Primary Wave C bear market to reach as low as 8000-9500.

Cash balance: 80% PSE, 40% GLobal USD (40% remaining in High Yielding Corporate Bonds at 6-8% YTD)

Total bad assets/holdings: 20% PSE, 20% GLobal USD

I am lessening my post, since the typical Primary Wave A and Primary Wave B , the easiest to make money with is already done, and the upcoming scary forecast Primary Wave C is coming with an estimate time of 8mos to 24mos downturn duration, that history tells it is the most hard to make money area. I will be taking a vacation, and waiting for Euro Zone to default,or even finish their business, before I take time to define if its already TIME to get it.

Goodluck and braise yourself for a possible downturn as early as now. Stay in CASH. And I will surely the one to inform you guys, once the reward is greater than the risk. STay Safe!

1 comment:

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