** NOTE That I am not Bearish in this global market, its just that, there is a 70% chance that Bear Market will happen, Just playing the market safe, and nothing wrong to expect the worst things in this world.
In our First Scenario, I made a RED DOT in our forecast where we are in this market, This advanced count suggest that temporary correction has just happened (-2.20%), and is poised to see the 11850 resistance.
2nd Scenario, market is not yet enough on the downside, and just breached 11500 resistance to take a pause before hitting new lows, after that, we assume still to resume back a temporary upside correction up to 11850 level, before continuing the Bear market selloffs.
Now that most are unaware of Bear Market Counts, I have illustrated below, a Bear Market example last 2007, and comparing the count we have right now, I made a RED DOT where count suggests how high we are still right now in a BEAR MARKET scenario.
1st dot - 2nd scenario above
2nd dot - 1st scenario above
And still, a suggestion of unloading of equity exposures on the 11850 level or so.
Death Cross - an intervention of a Simple Moving Average (SMA) 50 and SMA-200.
In Tony's post, he uses Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 13 and EMA 34 on a weekly chart.
Both are useful, and just minor adjustment to make charts as clear as possible.
Death cross is usually a Bear Market or Bull Market signal, that once a SMA-50 breaksout of a SMA-200 downward line, it Signals a Bull Market rally coming, and Vice Versa.
Now the chart below is a history example of what happened last recession.
2003 - A good GREEN Bull Market sign
2007 - a RED Bear market sign.
At the current status of our market, it is still deciding which side to go. And I still personally put the numbers 70% chance Bear, 30% chance Bull.
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