GLobal Markets still became choppy, at least a 100 points movement daily. With this kind of market, Its good to trade the Pink range, but has a 70% chance that a breakdown below the 10700 support is likely to happen. But at this point in time, I believe, im going to bet on the 30% Chance that a little bit of upside will happen in the next weeks/months. I'll discuss it in our 2nd chart (money making play of the quarter).
Notice that in a Bear Market (likely what's happening now), MACD does not go up above the 0 level, or sometimes, goes to 0 level to finish some corrective rally, and then resume the downtrend. We expect this MACD to reach 0 level in weeks/months time. And I believe that there is calm first, before another storm comes.
REMEMBER: Greece Bonds has a deadline this Dec 2011 for the partial payment.
Last Aug 22, 2011 (
http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2011/08/bear-market-play-of-quarter-8-22-2011.html), I've made a quickplay that may happen in the Dow Jones. On my analysis, its following the 1st Scenario we had, which is the failed new low (5th wave of the Pimary Wave A). At this point in time, This play is still intact, and I assume some of you guys have bought in (10700 support) for a target of 11700-12000.
Even though this is 30% chance to happen (percentage acounts for the Insolvency of European Meetings).I believe, This is a money making play, and a chance for stucked people to get out of the market. If all places are according to our expected waves. We can have a good week rally until Early or Mid November. Meaning, choppy sessions will persist, but will have net gain on the target upside.
After that, all signals/technical indicator expect to have a new 52 week low in Months time.
If this bear market follows all the length and timing, we expect it to bottom around Q3 or Q4 2012, with a DOW target of 8000-10000 level. (still depends on the Wave structure of Primary Wave A and B).
Note: This is all about DOW Jones, PSE is completely different.
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