The Amazing Chart : Guide to Global Stock Market: November 2012

Friday, November 16, 2012

Dow, Germany, WTIC Oil 11-16-2012

DOW and Global Markets have corrected/dropped for 1.5months already, the typical for a good correction. Dow also lost 9% already in the past 6 weeks time. In case that this is just a correction, we can conclude that supports are at 12500 for possible uptrend support, and the 61.8% retracement is on place. The RSi and current Wave a = Wave c correction structure also concludes that this could be the bottom.

Although in Elliot Wave terms, int. ii must not go below the minor I of int i, we can still take this scenario as a bullish one, unless it goes below 12035 level. Current count is still as bullish state, and ongoing int. ii of Major Wave 3 of this Primary Wave III bull market.

Short Term: RSI overbought, and MACD as low as 12035 low. Positive Divergence on Daily charts, and possible uptrend support, 61.8% retracement level.

Medium Term: Possibly bottom soon.

Long Term: Uptrend

Germany was not so bad at all, only corrected 6.2% for the entire frame, and the selloff was gradual. It expanded 0.2 or 0.3% QoQ and still having a slow but sure growth, UK and France GDP just inched higher as well, but European GDP contracted and entered 2^nd recession since 2009,due to 25% unemployment of Spain and Greece, plus low GDP of Portugal and other areas.

We don’t see any support for Germany, and Global Markets doesn’t depend on Germany anymore, seems that Fiscal Cliffs drags US Equities in particular, as the effect is for US based companies. Although we may see lots of indicators that US equity is currently a good entry point, Germany may have broke its slow downtrend support. We are looking to a support near 6900. And Medium Term uptrend support at 6400.

Short Term: Correction isn’t as sync with US. Sideways to Down, possibly just broke down a major support.

Medium Term: Sideways to Up

Long Term: Sideways

Oil prices was one of my leading indicator that Equities are bound to correct. US and Europe made its new high last end Sept,but Oil sold off immediately up to 5% instantaneously. Although Equities and Oil doesn’t 100% go in tandem,this is one of the few indicators to guide the next direction of the market.

Oil has a support at 85. And has Medium/Long term support at 80. RSI is now at OK levels, thus Equity rally /bounce can begin shortly.

All actions above are ideal for Technical Reasons, in case the Fiscal Cliff extended its range and increases tax scope, Fund Managers/individuals can do a quick sell-off that can trigger our must avoid levels.

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Full Analysis: NASDAQ, DOW, S&P, HK, AU, Germany 11-11-2012

NASDAQ:This week's extreme catch on Global Markets is the chart of NASDAQ. NASDAQ was the very first indicator that US Equity has turned a U-turn and went downtrending/correction, especially when it break below its uptrend line. What I saw that defined a possible short term rally is that, the Head and Shoulder pattern of NASDAQ just expired last Friday's close.

Could it enter a new small rally, before the Greece deadline on Nov 16. We say a 50% chance that a small rally for US equity can be seen early next week.(For short term traders).

Short Term: Downtrending may have ended (50% chance).

Medium Term: Sideways

Long Term: Uptrend

DOW: Meanwhile, the bellwether and the main index ( I think) of the US, the Dow, is possibly having or in a deeper head and shoulder pattern, with an estimate target of 12500. Last friday, DOW just made a low of 12743, 243 short to our target H&S Pattern. I put my 50% on the market to go a little deeper into the 12500 area in the next few days, weeks.

In Elliot Wave Analysis, the current DOW price just entered the Minor Wave 1 of Intermediate Wave 3 of Primary Wave 3 Market. The more it goes below, the greater the chance that our Wave Counts are not going to be back to Bullish mode. So we will see in these coming days/weeks, where our Market could really go. A sudden collapse in next week's Greece uncertainty, could make or break this Bull run.

Short Term: Downtrending may have more rooms to come. (50% chance that sideways to down to 12500 level)

Medium Term: Sideways

Long Term: Uptrend

AU: Australia has never been this aggresive in terms of index rally. Though it took a pause when MACD RSI fall short and went into negative divergence. We expected that AU will hit its strong resistance in the 4600-4750 area, and it did. One of the big problem again here is that, AU is now at the very steep support. And 1day selloff could break it below again to weekly lows. I was hit with this trap last April when I am buying a lot when AU hold on into its uptrend support.

Short Term: Uptrend, but 70% chance that current uptrend level may not hold. Big factor is the Negative Divergence in MACD.

Medium-Long Term: Sideways

HK: Hong Kong Market did a false breakout through the 22k level, and fell sharply as it wasnt successful to hold the 22k level. At this point in time, its 80% probability that HK will gather more strength first,before attempting to get into 22.5k level.

Short Term: False Breakout, consolidation to 21000-21500 is highly probably.

Medium-Long Term: Sideways

SPX: S&P is more of NASDAQ, where we are predicting that 50% chance that downtrending may have ended last friday. and may consolidate or even rally in the next few days. An immediate uptrend support for Medium Term is pegged at 1362, and this could help Bullish people to get back into the market and buy back their shares.

Short Term: Uptrend

Medium: Sideways

Long Term:Uptrend

Germany: Germany is set to release its 3Q 2012 GDP by next week or next next. UK is out of recession,and Germany will still be the bellwether for Europe region, weather they are still healthy compared to other deteriorating European cities.

Short Term: Peakish, Sideways to Down

Medium Term: Sideways to down

Long Term: 5yr downtrending resistance intact at 7400.