Full Analysis: NASDAQ, DOW, S&P, HK, AU, Germany 11-11-2012

 

NASDAQ:This week's extreme catch on Global Markets is the chart of NASDAQ. NASDAQ was the very first indicator that US Equity has turned a U-turn and went downtrending/correction, especially when it break below its uptrend line. What I saw that defined a possible short term rally is that, the Head and Shoulder pattern of NASDAQ just expired last Friday's close.

Could it enter a new small rally, before the Greece deadline on Nov 16. We say a 50% chance that a small rally for US equity can be seen early next week.(For short term traders).

Short Term: Downtrending may have ended (50% chance).

Medium Term: Sideways

Long Term: Uptrend

 

DOW: Meanwhile, the bellwether and the main index ( I think) of the US, the Dow, is possibly having or in a deeper head and shoulder pattern, with an estimate target of 12500. Last friday, DOW just made a low of 12743, 243 short to our target H&S Pattern. I put my 50% on the market to go a little deeper into the 12500 area in the next few days, weeks.

In Elliot Wave Analysis, the current DOW price just entered the Minor Wave 1 of Intermediate Wave 3 of Primary Wave 3 Market. The more it goes below, the greater the chance that our Wave Counts are not going to be back to Bullish mode. So we will see in these coming days/weeks, where our Market could really go. A sudden collapse in next week's Greece uncertainty, could make or break this Bull run.

 
Short Term: Downtrending may have more rooms to come. (50% chance that sideways to down to 12500 level)

Medium Term: Sideways

Long Term: Uptrend

 

 AU: Australia has never been this aggresive in terms of index rally. Though it took a pause when MACD RSI fall short and went into negative divergence. We expected that AU will hit its strong resistance in the 4600-4750 area, and it did. One of the big problem again here is that, AU is now at the very steep support. And 1day selloff could break it below again to weekly lows. I was hit with this trap last April when I am buying a lot when AU hold on into its uptrend support. 

Short Term: Uptrend, but 70% chance that current uptrend level may not hold. Big factor is the Negative Divergence in MACD.

Medium-Long Term: Sideways

 

HK: Hong Kong Market did a false breakout through the 22k level, and fell sharply as it wasnt successful to hold the 22k level. At this point in time, its 80% probability that HK will gather more strength first,before attempting to get into 22.5k level.

Short Term: False Breakout, consolidation to 21000-21500 is highly probably.

Medium-Long Term: Sideways

  

SPX: S&P is more of NASDAQ, where we are predicting that 50% chance that downtrending may have ended last friday. and may consolidate or even rally in the next few days. An immediate uptrend support for Medium Term is pegged at 1362, and this could help Bullish people to get back into the market and buy back their shares.

Short Term: Uptrend

Medium: Sideways

Long Term:Uptrend

  

Germany: Germany is set to release its 3Q 2012 GDP by next week or next next. UK is out of recession,and Germany will still be the bellwether for Europe region, weather they are still healthy compared to other deteriorating European cities.

Short Term: Peakish, Sideways to Down

Medium Term: Sideways to down

Long Term: 5yr downtrending resistance intact at 7400.