Germany, Breakout or might be a trap? 12-17-2012

After 5 years of battling with its Long Term Downtrend lines, it seems that Germany has broke out of its 5yr drought.. It was not expected at first, but we waited for few weeks before I posted this analysis.

There are certain times that breakouts are false,and only to attract high volume/high speed traders, and in this scenario, let us say that I am 70% satisfied that its a breakout. and 30% that it could be a false one.

We need to check and wait for more considerations, specially that MACD is Negative Divergence, and RSI just crossed at 70. Europe might be strong this H2, increasing almost 20% in their equity prices, we may not know if turmoil in Spain,Greece could trigger any selloff anytime soon.

Short Term: Uptrend

Medium Term: Sideways to Up

Long Term: We are stilll weighing if it broke out of its 5yr downtrend resistance. a fallback to 7400 is highly probably,and we may see the correct trend anytime soon.