Philippines and Asia Pacific in particular took a massive hit ranging from 10% to 20% correction in just 3 weeks time. What's the current status of the US and how can we prepare for such situations? Let us do some quick recap and analysis.
For the US, we are using EW Analysis and Technical Analysis to at least predict what our stop loss and target prices may be in the short to long term trades.
SPX and Dow are still in short to medium term uptrend, uptrend lines are still intact since Nov 2012, in any EW and Technical forums, they are already anticipating a break below on this uptrend line, to correct at least a month, before we hit a new fresh highs.
SPX and Dow already corrected 5% from its peak and stopped three times around 1607 or 15000 for Dow. Its like hanging by the cliff, with no price actions yet. Dow Futures looking into recovering its 100pts loss last Friday night, and might delay again any directional patterns we are anticipating.
We still see 3 possible scenarios here,using any technical or subjective analysis:
1. Market bounces from 15k/1607, continues its 6months rally since Nov2012 and makes/revisits new highs extending rally to 7th/8th month (30% chance)
2. The correction is done and market makes new high reaching 16k/1700 (30% chance)
3. We are in a correction, and will break below the important short term uptrend support, with estimate correction of 5% more (1550 SPX or 14500 Dow), then rally continues and we make/revisit all time highs. (40% chance)
I personally want #3 to happen, and my #1 indicator when I can fully invest in Asia and the Philippines. As of this moment, I am 60% cash and waiting for better opportunities to come. Hopefully Asia doesnt bottom out yet,and waits for US Markets to declare the direction of the markets.
No comments:
Post a Comment