SPX, SPX Weekly, Germany, AU, HK 8-7-2013

After the expected rally to the all time high. It may have ran out of steam at it corrects almost 200pts in just 2 days. If things are in place for the anticipated Major Wave 4 correction, this may be deeper compared to the correction last May-June. And if it continues to rally from here, we can see new all time highs, but may not reach above 16000 immediately.

Updating our probability chances, Based on Elliot Wave count, we may:

a. finished the minor wave 5 of Major wave 3 of Primary Wave III, and continuation decline/correction of major wave 4 is coming, with downside of 5-12% (raised to 80%)

b. mini wave 5 is on the line,and 2 more minor waves up before we see major wave 4 correciton (20%)

Percentage is based on the chance regarding the overall market conditions. Any breaking news may affect our forecast.

Worst is to worst, if we may need to compare Major Wave 2 and the coming Major Wave 4, it may equate to 1550 target downside.