ALI and inverted head and shoulder 12-23-2013

ALI's inverter head and shoulder projected a short term target of around 23.50-23.8, and it stopped at 23.70. It also held support with the 52 week low.

A good bounce should happen/has happened to the downtrend resistance around 26.5

In terms of window dressing, I am hoping ALI could easily hit around 26.00-26.50 WITHOUT a breakout.

Then next year, nobody knows, since U.S. is extending its gains probably until next year, hopefully a good bounce/breakout in almost all our bluechip stocks before the expected carnage around Jan-Mar 2014(Primary Wave IV of the U.S).

HK market. such an upset 12-20-2013

It was such an upset that after having a good uptrend support from June to Dec2013. It unexpectedly fell off and broke down the uptrend channel even though US is having a good year.

It also gone below and had a false breakout to the 2010 to 2013 downtrend channel.(IN DARK RED)

At P/E of 10x, this should be competitive to the Equity prices in US and EU. But it can hardly get up.

Immediate support at 22500 (November lows).

With a target downside of 21,300 to 22,150.

4.5year uptrend support is at 20,850.

DOW hits all time high, SPX did not 12-20-2013

DOW managed to visit fresh all time high and is around the resistance area of 2000 and 2007 peak.

SPX did not made it to the new high.

In Elliot Wave analysis, an overlap to a high or to a low is important to know the next trend.

We indicated last week that it had an overlap to the downside that gave us hint an 80% downtrend coming, but it reversed into upside and broke all resistance, and now hitting and having an overlap to all time high. I guess market is very unpredictable nowadays.

Even our other Elliotisticians are having a hard time and change count each and every day.

SPX already gained 27% for 2013. It's the highest gain of a year for 20th century! Yes that's right. I am not an anti bull market, but events like these cause massive volatility in the future.

Will be posting in the next few days if we have a clearer picture if we are extending again before the much awaited Primary Wave 4. tsk tsk...

S&P500 (SPX) status and forecast 12-19-2013

S&P500(SPX) opened higher and went above +1.66% after FED started a minimal taper with 10B less bond buying program to 75B next month.

We are still in a confused market, nowhere to go.

The market didn't touch the all time high which makes the market probably NOT yet extending. 50-50 chance again...

a. If the market moves upward above 1813. We will change the recent low to int wave ii of minor wave 4 of major wave 5. (50%)

b. We continue to see this market as probably the int wave b high before an int wave c low. If we see the market get below 1777 again. We can clearly state that this close at 1810 today is just the int wave b. (50% chance)

Market is so unpredictable. Yet people expecting a Santa Claus rally to finish the year :)

S&P500 analysis and forecast 12-16-2013

SPX broke an important Elliot Wave rule, which was not to overlap any waves in conjunction to its trend.

We labeled Int Wave iii (1777 SPX) the possible Major Wave 5 component since Aug2013 rally. Just last Thurs and Fri, SPX broke below intraday to as low as 1772.

80% of the time, if Elliot Wave rule is broken, we immediately change count or reversal happens soon. In some cases an overlap is OK but must not exceed a very huge amount of margin.

Weeks ago, we posted that length of Primary Wave I(2009-2011) rally will be EQUAL to Primary Wave III(2011-2013) rally. If worst is to worst happens, we can clearly see that even TIME gives an enormous amount of data to us, and hints us on possible reversals.

SPX also broke below its 1794 short term uptrend line, and next uptrend line is at 1750 to 1752. Europe also has the same charts, and the impulsive selling could be tentatively indicated as Int Wave A, a possible Int Wave B rally could be happening this week before a final Int Wave C to happen to finish MAJOR WAVE A of Primary Wave IV correction. (80% chance to happen)

OR correction is done and we continue to rally to new highs till end of year (20% to happen)

 SPX Weekly Charts also show that MACD and RSI levels are in the outmost part of where market peaks can be found.

We are also in the upper uptrend chancel of bull market since 2009.

We can climb up inch by inch, but who wants to buy and hold in upper resistance channels? :)

Good luck and hope to have a Santa Claus play by end of year :)

PSEi looks very weak 12-13-13

PSEi now at 5713 (as of 10:14am). Triple dip is in formation, need to hold around 5600-5700 level. But buyers are nowhere to be found??!?!?!

No one is supporting the index with huge bids. What if sellers came by this afternoon?

Have a gut feeling that we will break down soon to reach 5400( 4.5yr uptrend line)- the very last defense. Ceveat !

Please help support the markets! Nobody wants to see PSEi being classified under Bear Market.

CRITICAL CRITICAL supports for MBT, BDO and SMPH 12-12-13

CRITICAL CRITICAL supports for MBT, BDO and SMPH.
Must not fall below the following Long term uptrend supports:
MBT - 68.40-70
BDO - 69.0 ( a fall back to 52week low of 66 is not considered at this moment)
SMPH - 15.0

PSEi, close to losing almost all it's gain from Aug2013 low 12-10-2013

PSEi lost 105pts as of 2:34pm SGT. PSEi index at 5903.

Just last week, we concluded that there could be a possible alternate downtrend resistance near 6260 and could knock our index again to a down trend. I did not expect that in a matter of a week, we could lose all the gains from Aug2013 low.

Our initial support is 5950, and at the most 5930. But seems market is too weak even though many buyers are already supporting BDO and MBT at their critical supports.

If the selling persists, we may see a triple bottom at 5700-5800.

Worst is to worst if the triple bottom do not hold. 5400-5500 is the LAST 4.5yr uptrend support to still classify PSEi as a Bullish Market.

If we fall below 5400. Need to bring out my WHITE FLAG..

USD index and all other currencies getting stronger 12-10-13

USD index fell short from the black uptrend line, we have an alternative pink uptrend line for USD to hold into.

Long term, USD index is in a contracting triangle, and the short term weakness makes PHP, KRW, CNY and other foreign currency stronger, it even made EUR reach 1.37xx, its 52week high.

We see USD index have limited downside(assuming tapering is light), 50% uptrend, 50% downtrend. For now, we can see it do a sideways pattern with a more biased to DOWN.

PHP may hit around 44-44.40 if USD index continuous to weaken, and the much anticipated rally of the PHP due to OFW inflows could be less felt this year.

BDO complete analysis and play/plan 12-6-2013

BDO was the 2nd most defensive/lowest decline banking stock in PSEi.

We determined last June that 66-70 was a buy for the reason of its 4.5 uptrend line support. BDO's chart is easy to read and I can conclude that BDO is still in a Bull market.

Short term support: 72.50(1month low)

Medium/Long term support: 68-70 (4.5yr uptrend should hold into these levels and not the 66.0 52week low we saw last Aug2013.

Play/Plan: Accumulate near 68-70 and a quick short bounce to 76 level (highly probable). Next resistance area is around 81-83 and a strong resistance and could be a selling point. A break below 66-70 could trigger end of bull.

RSI: 36
P/E ratio: 12x (bloomberg, average)

38.2% retracement of bull market: 70.0
50% retracement of bull market: 60.0
2013 high: 99.0
current retracement:  27% from the top

MBT complete analysis and play 12-6-2013

MBT looks weak after it broke down 90 price.

The reason that it sold off until 70 level was that they see the DARK RED color as an uptrend support for the 4.5yr uptrend and they took it as a Bearish sign, but upon looking closely, I can give an alternative uptrend support around 69-72 to still include it as a long term Bullish stock.

Short term support: 73.5( as the 52 week low)

Medium term support: 70-72

Long term support: 69-70

Play/Plan: MBT might go around the 69-72 area, and is a good buy once support is established, and a breakout above the 78 level(downtrend resistance since May2013 top) could trigger a good rally to around 84-90 short to medium term. A fall below 69 level is a Bearish reaction.

RSI: 34
P/E ratio: 9x (bloomberg, relatively cheap)
61.8% retracement of the entire bull market: 65.0
2013 High: 139.50
Current retracement from top: 53.8%

SPX, Germany, France, China, HK, Indonesia snapshots 12-5-2013

SPX update and forecast 12-3-2013

SPX lost 4.9 pts last night, and closed at 1800. Some reasons that a quick/long correction should be happening at this level:

1. 1802-1812 is the area of the 1.618% projection of Wave 1.
2. 1812 is also the area of the upper resistance of the entire 4.5year bull market
3. Negative divergence on MACD and RSI on the daily charts.
4. Primary Wave I length in terms of time is nearing to be EQUAL to current's Primary Wave III. which will expire around this month to next month. (It's just a fun fact to match time equality, but sometimes it is a good indicator as well)

Upon counting waves, we can also clearly see 5 minor waves topping out soon, topping out Primary Wave III, or Major Wave 3 or even to as small as Int Wave iii

Forecast is still same as last week:

50% chance - 3-5% correction within Dec, then Xmas rally till end of year to early next year to finish Primary Wave III before a 10-20% drop. (SPX must not close below 1777 for this to happen)

30% chance - we have found the peak of this year, and correction for Primary Wave IV started last night.

20% chance - last night's correction was enough to extend another rally till end of year. (too bullish)( will happen once we get another all time high this week)

PSEi mid day update 12-2-2013

PSEi went above 6200 resistance and reached 6260 intra day, but closed near 6200 at 12noon. if PSEi goes above 6200, we see still see an alternative downward resistance at 6260.

Market is a bit tricky, market must go above 6200 and 6260 , before we can declare that short term downtrend probably is over - and could be going to a sideways to up pattern or sideways pattern.

If PSEi resumes its downtrend:
1st support 5950
2nd support 5700-5800

AORD, ASX200, possibly broke down on its medium term uptrend 12-2-2013

ASX200 (AU index, ^AORD) possibly broke down today on its medium term uptrend since June 2013 rally.

The index is -0.80% as of 1030am SGT 12/2/2013 and broke below the uptrend support at 5300.

We are looking looking another alternative uptrend support form July 2013, which is around 5240. If it hold from this level, we may re confirm the current trend.

TEL possibly forming a short term bottom 11-29-2013

TEL bottomed short term after hitting 2572. Bought a few shares near 2582 and is expected to reach 2700 level.

TEL recently broke down from 2700 level and now became a resistance, if TEL manage to get up to above 2700, we may see it reach up to 2750-2790 until end of year.

PSEi manage to get up by few hundred points with the help of overbought rallies of TEL,MBT,BDO, SM and others.

PSEi resistance is now at 6,200, where it broke down recently.
6200 resistance :
- where it broke down
- downtrend line since end of Oct
- 50% retracement of Nov 18 peak before it went down near 59xx level.