MBT 3-14-2016

MBT dives again, alternate bull market support in danger 1-19-2016

metrobank update : did not break out of downtrend range 11-4-2015

MBT chart review 10-26-2015

I have been monitoring MBT and its weakness compared to BDO and BPI and worrying why it is not making new highs despite BDO and BPI making way to make new all time highs. And been stuck in the 74-100 range.

I managed to find time and knowledge how to re-adjust data using the Stock right offerings(SRO) that happened 2013 and 2014.

I tried to balance formulas how Bloomberg data managed to readjust data based from SRO.

P/E is 12x and relatively around the average fairly priced banks.

The process of issuing SRO can be mind buggling as a technical and fundamental trader, but I realized, things should balance out and adjust as necessary.

Looking into when it hit 100, It should have been a sell, since the spike from 68 to 103 last 2013 was a parabolic curve that near 100 was somewhat overpriced.

MBT is now in sideways pattern, and 6years bull market support has been re-adjusted for technical purposes.

Short term trades: resistance at 87-88, and if it breaks out, we may revisit 90-94

*seeing a head and shoulder pattern as well. But not to worry as of now. Will only be confirmed when it gets below 75. very very small chance to happen.

Stocks and Indices that are below 30 RSI. Oversold. 8-20-2015

There are a lot of stocks which are extremely oversold, which have potential medium to long term, some of them like SECB, GTCAP, EDC and MBT.

But the weakening of PHP with effect of weakening Stock Market is insisting me to BUY ahead and catch the falling knives.

Another major reason I am not yet bringing all the guns is that PSE in the US broke below the triple support, assuming it also happens in the local PSE. We should see PSE breaking below 7250 as well.

Philippine Banks Review (BDO, SECB, RCB, MBT, PNB, BPI) 7-28-2015

Philippine Banks post the biggest and longest decline since 2013. And the weakest sector in the Philippines right now. I find it hard that some banks are already trading at 10x PE. And are very very interesting in terms of price valuation.

I know most banks have a hard time earning from their trading gains, which brings only around 10-20% additional income to a bank. Other income generation from different sectors are still good in the Philippines.

Most banks broke down from their 2 year uptrend, and is getting closer to 2009 uptrend support (6 year uptrend support). I still recommend BUY on most banks (have BDO, RCB and SECB right now)

Two concerns are EUROPE and US Elliot Wave count is nearing this "decisive" Q3-2015 Q4-2015 and Q1-2016, which has a high probability that Primary Wave IV is coming.

Good Luck !

MBT stock snapshot 12-18-2014

Philippine Banks snapshots: BDO, BPI, MBT, PNB, RCB, SECB 12-5-2014

MBT complete analysis and play 12-6-2013

MBT looks weak after it broke down 90 price.

The reason that it sold off until 70 level was that they see the DARK RED color as an uptrend support for the 4.5yr uptrend and they took it as a Bearish sign, but upon looking closely, I can give an alternative uptrend support around 69-72 to still include it as a long term Bullish stock.

Short term support: 73.5( as the 52 week low)

Medium term support: 70-72

Long term support: 69-70

Play/Plan: MBT might go around the 69-72 area, and is a good buy once support is established, and a breakout above the 78 level(downtrend resistance since May2013 top) could trigger a good rally to around 84-90 short to medium term. A fall below 69 level is a Bearish reaction.

RSI: 34
P/E ratio: 9x (bloomberg, relatively cheap)
61.8% retracement of the entire bull market: 65.0
2013 High: 139.50
Current retracement from top: 53.8%