[Xmas special] Elliot Wave analysis of S&P500 12-25-2018

Elliot Wave really works. Patience and time badly needed on this technique.

YET, EW worked again in this probably 2009 to 2018 Bull Market peak.

I need to apologize that my post last April 2018, was not explained completely, I just posted my chart indicating:

option A: Primary Wave V peak of entire bull market (75% chance)
option B: Primary Wave III ended last Oct2018 and Primary Wave IV correction is 31.8 to 50% fibo which set target downside of:
31.8%     2250
50%        2063
61.8%     1830

Let me show some detailed information:

Elliot Wave consist of 5 Primary Waves and 3 Waves Down
1 rally
2 correction of 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or so
3 big big rally
4 correction of 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or so
5 end of bull market
A Bear market correction of 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or so
B Bear market rally of 38.2 to 50% usually
C Bear market bottom

In this weekly chart
Primary Wave 3 = 1.618 of Primary Wave 1
Primary Wave 5 = 1.618 of Primary Wave 1
Primary Wave 5 EXACTLY = PRimary Wave 1
Primary Wave 2 = 38.2% correction of Primary Wave 1
Primary Wave 4 = in between 23.6% to 38.2% correction of Primary Wave 3

A very healthy bull market and a perfect 100 for EW traders. Imagine 9years of bull market with Fibonacci connections with each other. "perfect combinations"

Looking into the short term:

Positive side: short term support FOUND
2300-2350
1. Uptrend line support since 2009
2. 50% Fib
3. M Wave3 of Primary 4
4. RSI at 19.20

Negative side:
1. if S&P breaks below 2300
next target is Primary 3 high of 2100
2. if S&P breaks below Primary Wave III 2100
might as well confirm Bear Market/Recession

2300 level of S&P500 is another key level, if it breaks 2100 is very probable.

(WOW) DAX Germany near target of HnS Pattern 12-25-2018

DAX GERMANY after we concluded HnS pattern has formed. (Oct 2018)

DAX GERMANY now (Really a Head and Shoulder bearish pattern)

All I can share is that, technical analysis is WOW. Especially when correctly applied with fundamental analysis.

WTIC in Bear Market = but target downside near 12-25-2018

Updates from our post last Nov2018-(CLICK) regarding WTIC which broke down 2year bull rally.

Our last post really did nasty dive which broke down 2year bull market in Oil Markets.

It did not only made it into Bear Market but retraced 61.8% or 35USD(more than half) in less than 2 months! (this asset class could be rated in Guinness Book History of worst decline in 2months!!!!)

Happy to inform you all that downside target is near.
C=0.618 of A = which is 40 USD per barrel
C=A = which is 30USD per barrel, to low to place the target but very possible since global growth is weakening

Waiting for energy stocks to recover from decline and WTIC to form a base. But not recommended to trade Energy stocks very soon as Global Equities has dived and MONEY is moving to SAFER assets(Gold, High Rated bonds) and USD).


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QUOTING from Tony Caldaro's Commodity Cycle Post Last Q2 2018

How far could Crude advance? During the last bear market all rallies, excluding the aberration from the Kuwait invasion, retraced 38.2%, 50.0%, or more of the previous larger decline. This suggests an upside target between $70 and $85 by the year 2020. Then, after that, a six-year decline into the final bear market low, which should be around the $26 area. In summary one should expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade. Unless there is a supply-event, which could push the upper range higher.

[recession soon] S&P500 target level of possible technical bounce 12-25-2018

target support of 50-61.8% fibo or roughly 2250 to 2385 before a possible technical bounce.

Recommendation is to stay out of the market and wait for technical information when to enter the market.

We have been issuing multiple reports this year to avoid the market top and will post more detailed analysis soon.

Final verdict: Bear Market has started, and still could be the "next recession" we are waiting.