WTIC in Bear Market = but target downside near 12-25-2018

Updates from our post last Nov2018-(CLICK) regarding WTIC which broke down 2year bull rally.

Our last post really did nasty dive which broke down 2year bull market in Oil Markets.

It did not only made it into Bear Market but retraced 61.8% or 35USD(more than half) in less than 2 months! (this asset class could be rated in Guinness Book History of worst decline in 2months!!!!)

Happy to inform you all that downside target is near.
C=0.618 of A = which is 40 USD per barrel
C=A = which is 30USD per barrel, to low to place the target but very possible since global growth is weakening

Waiting for energy stocks to recover from decline and WTIC to form a base. But not recommended to trade Energy stocks very soon as Global Equities has dived and MONEY is moving to SAFER assets(Gold, High Rated bonds) and USD).


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QUOTING from Tony Caldaro's Commodity Cycle Post Last Q2 2018

How far could Crude advance? During the last bear market all rallies, excluding the aberration from the Kuwait invasion, retraced 38.2%, 50.0%, or more of the previous larger decline. This suggests an upside target between $70 and $85 by the year 2020. Then, after that, a six-year decline into the final bear market low, which should be around the $26 area. In summary one should expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade. Unless there is a supply-event, which could push the upper range higher.

WTI Crude Oil: Something is wrong, broke 2 yr bull market 11-14-2018

US Oil. WTIC strong uptrend 5-11-2018

Oil price too bearish. Positive divergence seen but too early to call

WTIC looks bullish after breakout 4-17-2015

The recent breakout made a 10% advance breaking out of 50 and 54 level.

Expect 1.50 to 2 pesos per liter increase as early as next week.



Analysis and review by tradingchannels.co.uk

WTIC continue to selloff, next support and Elliot Wave analysis 1-6-2015

Expected WTIC to bounce from 55 area, it did bounce til 58.50 but continued to whipsaw and selloff. (did not manage to reach our 65 target bounce)

We already entered Oil bear market when it fell below 70 level, and the decline in prices is very steep.

50 level should be the next support level, else we could really see 2009 lows at 33.

50 USD per barrel is already very very cheap and most breakeven costs of companies are at 70-80 level. So I am very very cautious as this may spark the next recession by debt defaults (Russia, Middle East and Energy corporate debts).

 

Since Elliot Wave theory is applicable to all index/stocks. I have laid out my EW analysis on WTIC's price movement.

I see a potential bottom or bounce soon with the reason that we could have 5 complete waves down (a-b-c-d-e in red) . 50% chance.

50% chance is that after the 5 complete waves down, we make 3 complete waves up and resume downtrend by another 5 waves down into possibly 33-40 level.



charts by: T. Caldaro and Bouraq(tradingchannels)

WTIC, short/medium term bottom could be IN 12-18-2014

Oil nose dives. 26pesos per liter of Diesel price, highly probable 12-15-2015

WTIC did another nasty dive and broke below important supports. Although this could be already in the bottoming process, long candles which typically could reverse anytime. We should also discuss what other problems it could encounter if WTIC stays below these levels.

Saudi and Russia are widely known to have a lot of oil deposits and oil exports is one of their income generating for GDP. Now that WTIC has fallen almost 50% of the price since 2011 or 2013. It could really make a big effect, especially for Russia,who had a bad record last 1998 when it's country's debt defaulted, Oil slump that time was also one of the reasons they were not able to pay off their debt,then coincided with 2000 tech bubble.

I believe 50s level is an important support, and a breakeven cost to oil explorers. U.S. got a lot of production which lessened their Oil imports. It could be an oversupply, but it could also be a political strategy by the US and Oil traders.

Consumers will GREATLY benefit from this, but thinking on a bigger picture, when we revisit 33USD (2009 lows), a lot of Countries and Corporate debt will default. Which could spark the next recession. Just saying....

Diesel price estimates for the Philippines

58USD x 44.50 USD/peso = 2581 / 119.24= 21.64pesos/liter X additional 20-30% profit/margin = 26-28 pesos per liter of Diesel, highly probable.

WTIC 4 year low 11-27-2014

 

WTIC lost 4% overnight and hit its 4year low. It also exceeded and broke below the important 74-76 area of support.

We may see some support around 70-71 which is the downtrend support since 2011 high. Followed by a good bounce as the drop from 107 to 72 is not very healthy without a bounce. (-33%)

We can roughly say that Oil could be in Bear market and downtrend lines since 2011 is still intact.

72USD x 44.95 /  119.24 Liters =  27.14 pesos per liter

Assuming + 20% gross profit margin and expenses = 32.50 pesos per liter

We may see Diesel prices here in the Philippines to hit as low as 32.50 soon. (now at 35.10). 

*Xmas rush + cheap oil prices = disastrous traffic here in Manila x.x

WTIC update and expecting a bottom 10-24-2014

In relation to our post for WTIC 2 weeks ago http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2014/10/wtic-reached-oct-2012-lows-10-10-2014.html

 
WTIC managed to get as low as 79.xx intraday. As US selloff made Oil traders cash out as well. I expect WTIC to hold around 77-81 level and bounce 3-6months to around 90-100 level.

In terms of price here in the Philippines. 81USD per barrel = 82 x 44.80 / 119.24(liters per barrel) = 30.80 pesos per liter.

Adding their gross profit margin and inventory costs of 20%. 30.80 + 20% margin = Diesel prices of 36.96 pesos per liter could be the bottom.  

Low WTIC could increase profits of companies and decrease inflation, make car owners happy and increase traffic.

GDP wise, low WTIC can be economical friendly, but don't expect to hold at these low levels.

* break below of 77-81 could bring WTIC to 67-73 level.

WTIC reached Oct 2012 lows 10-10-2014

WTIC or Crude Oil reached its Oct 2012 lows after breaking below 91USD per barrel.

We may see support near 84 which is the Oct 2012 lows and I have a guess that we will bounce from here.

As of the meantime, Philippines may expect below 40pesos per liter for Diesel, hurraayy! And a lot of traffic in exchange. Booo ! haha.