CRITICAL CRITICAL supports for MBT, BDO and SMPH 12-12-13

CRITICAL CRITICAL supports for MBT, BDO and SMPH.
Must not fall below the following Long term uptrend supports:
MBT - 68.40-70
BDO - 69.0 ( a fall back to 52week low of 66 is not considered at this moment)
SMPH - 15.0

PSEi, close to losing almost all it's gain from Aug2013 low 12-10-2013

PSEi lost 105pts as of 2:34pm SGT. PSEi index at 5903.

Just last week, we concluded that there could be a possible alternate downtrend resistance near 6260 and could knock our index again to a down trend. I did not expect that in a matter of a week, we could lose all the gains from Aug2013 low.

Our initial support is 5950, and at the most 5930. But seems market is too weak even though many buyers are already supporting BDO and MBT at their critical supports.

If the selling persists, we may see a triple bottom at 5700-5800.

Worst is to worst if the triple bottom do not hold. 5400-5500 is the LAST 4.5yr uptrend support to still classify PSEi as a Bullish Market.

If we fall below 5400. Need to bring out my WHITE FLAG..

USD index and all other currencies getting stronger 12-10-13

USD index fell short from the black uptrend line, we have an alternative pink uptrend line for USD to hold into.

Long term, USD index is in a contracting triangle, and the short term weakness makes PHP, KRW, CNY and other foreign currency stronger, it even made EUR reach 1.37xx, its 52week high.

We see USD index have limited downside(assuming tapering is light), 50% uptrend, 50% downtrend. For now, we can see it do a sideways pattern with a more biased to DOWN.

PHP may hit around 44-44.40 if USD index continuous to weaken, and the much anticipated rally of the PHP due to OFW inflows could be less felt this year.

BDO complete analysis and play/plan 12-6-2013

BDO was the 2nd most defensive/lowest decline banking stock in PSEi.

We determined last June that 66-70 was a buy for the reason of its 4.5 uptrend line support. BDO's chart is easy to read and I can conclude that BDO is still in a Bull market.

Short term support: 72.50(1month low)

Medium/Long term support: 68-70 (4.5yr uptrend should hold into these levels and not the 66.0 52week low we saw last Aug2013.

Play/Plan: Accumulate near 68-70 and a quick short bounce to 76 level (highly probable). Next resistance area is around 81-83 and a strong resistance and could be a selling point. A break below 66-70 could trigger end of bull.

RSI: 36
P/E ratio: 12x (bloomberg, average)

38.2% retracement of bull market: 70.0
50% retracement of bull market: 60.0
2013 high: 99.0
current retracement:  27% from the top

MBT complete analysis and play 12-6-2013

MBT looks weak after it broke down 90 price.

The reason that it sold off until 70 level was that they see the DARK RED color as an uptrend support for the 4.5yr uptrend and they took it as a Bearish sign, but upon looking closely, I can give an alternative uptrend support around 69-72 to still include it as a long term Bullish stock.

Short term support: 73.5( as the 52 week low)

Medium term support: 70-72

Long term support: 69-70

Play/Plan: MBT might go around the 69-72 area, and is a good buy once support is established, and a breakout above the 78 level(downtrend resistance since May2013 top) could trigger a good rally to around 84-90 short to medium term. A fall below 69 level is a Bearish reaction.

RSI: 34
P/E ratio: 9x (bloomberg, relatively cheap)
61.8% retracement of the entire bull market: 65.0
2013 High: 139.50
Current retracement from top: 53.8%