Australia, S&P daily, S&P weekly and HK forecasts 3-17-2013

I apologize for the late posts. I am quite busy lately, and Global Markets extended its rally, and waves are in depth extended as well. We now continue to analyze what happened and might happen in the next weeks to come.

Australia went on to a 15% rally in just 4months, setting a new high for its highest Daily RSI in history at 84. its now at 19x and pretty overbought, a good correction is needed for this market to stay afloat, and must hold near 5000 level support and must not fall back, else we might see 4xxx again.

This market is pretty expensive in Asia, we put a HOLD to AU markets, though a trading range pattern though is in set on 5000-5250 for short term traders.

S&P500 extended its gain and 1% close to 2007 highs, the Dow Jones Industrial already made new highs, and may continue to extend medium term, for now, we continue to analyze the wave extensions we analyzed last January 2013. Rally rally was 4months old, a typical small-medium correction must be heading soon to calm the markets, but before that, S&P may reach new highs first, before any correction may set in. Dow will be the bellwether,since (he) already made a few all time highs in the past week(HAHA)

a good pullback of 3-8% may be good to this economy, to wash of the negative RSI and MACD on Daily Charts.We put 1520 as short term support for any pullback.

Long term elliot wave count suggests that we are in the 5th mini wave of Intermediate iv, and we might see the end of Major Wave iii of Primary Wave III bull market. After Major Wave iii, we expect a 3-8% decline as Major Wave iv, the 3-8% decline was based from the Major Wave ii that happened last 2012.

Assuming there is a pullback of 3-8%, a followup rally is set in place to end Major Wave v of Primary Wave III rally, a target of 1600 is in place for S&P500.

Hong Kong markets fall short after breaking out of the 3yr downtrend line. HK is still cheap in terms of P/E which is only at 12x, but China is affecting its performance to rally like AU markets. We still believe that there's a lot of opportunity in this market, and we set 22,300 as the important support to hold, to make this market float above its margin.

We expect HK market to be bullish long term, and on a sideways pattern short to medium term. Buy into 22,300 if support holds, and accumulate near 21500 for the next support.