Hong Kong and China markets became the weakest link these past few weeks/months, hovering the RSI 30 since end of Feb. It attempted to break out of its long term downtrend channel last December but unexpectedly went off and corrected 11.6% (24000 to 21500). The Medium Term uptrend line in blue is a good candidate to BUY into, as its still relatively cheap at 12x PE ratio, compared to other Asian countries.
Once HK returns back above 22000-22500, we can roughly say that its sideways pattern might have ended.
Its still a BUY long term, and Trade the 21500-24000 range.
S&P500 made its all time high near 1600, and looking weak when it reached that level, using Elliot Wave analysis, the 5 month rally might pause for a while, and do a sideways or corrective pattern to fix its rally. PE Ratio increased to 14x, roughly priced in values.
Elliot Wave analysis suggests that we might be in the final stages of Intermediate Wave iii or Major Wave 3, or probably into corrective pattern already to finish Intermediate Wave iv.
Target corrective patterns in case correction already started within the 4% drop.
Intermediate Wave iv - target of 4% to 9.1% = 1530 to as low as 1470 (80% chance)
Major Wave 3 - 1400-1450 (20% chance)
In case corrective patterns dont happen, we can say that bull market rally can extend into few more weeks/months.
Weekly Chart shows that we are probably in the final Intermediate Wave iii or Major Wave 3, or probably into Intermediate Wave iv or Major Wave 4 correction.
Image above shows the entire bull market and Elliot Wave bullet points.
Australia market became unpredictable, as its going sideways with weak volume, it may start to decline on the short term channel,and a breakout of 5050 might cancel out this possible short term downtrend channel.
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