SCENARIO#1 SPX makes new high and is finishing Int Wave 3, semi BULLISH count (30% chance)
SPX reached 2000 level for the first time in history. SPX rallied back 4.5% in just 2.5weeks after it corrected 4.5% last July 2014.
This count suggests that SPX has a target of 2000-2060 to finish Int Wave 3. Then Int Wave 4 correction then to finish Int Wave 5(no targets yet) to finish Primary Wave III.
SCENARIO#2 SPX makes new high, long way to go, VERY BULLISH COUNT(20% chance)
This count suggests that Major Wave 3 is going to finish soon and lots of room for US to rally.
After Major Wave 3, we enter Major Wave 4 then another 5 long Intermediate waves before finishing Primary Wave III.
If this happens, SPX could take around 2100-2200 until next year before ending Primary Wave III and this is a very bullish scenario. 20% chance to happen.
SCENARIO#3 SPX makes new high, few more room left, BEARISH COUNT(50% chance and bearish consolidation due next)
This count suggests that we are in the final Intermediate wave 5 of Major 5 of Primary III. And Primary IV correction is coming. Target of around 2000(61.8% of W1) to 2060 (100% of W1).
*when assumed that Int Waves 1,2,3,4 and 5 are April 2014 - August 2014. Has chance that April 2014-August 2014 is just Int Wave 1.
No comments:
Post a Comment