DOW, S&P500 and HSI all in triangle pattern 5-9-2018

End of Bull Market or End of Primary Wave III?

End of Bull Market or End of Primary Wave III?

Coincidence or Valid Fibonacci relationships?

One thing is for sure, a big correction could be coming..

SPX and NASDAQ, very hard to predict their next step 4-1-2016

SCENARIO#1. Bullish count

US Indices have been very hard to track these past 8 weeks.

From the sharp drop to 1800 that was diagnosed to be either the starting leg of bear market or just the Primary Wave IV correction that will lead us to new all time highs.

The recent retracement to 2050 was the estimated resistance SPX could only reach when you are bearish on the market to resume its downtrend low.

Last few days, SPX managed to reach 2070 level, and simple downtrend resistance shows that it could have broken out already or maybe last line of defense is 2079.

All other markets Asia, Europe have been easy to trace, and moving along the medium term downtrend channel.

All I can suggest is that to watch closely who will win.

SPX (S&P500): Bulls vs Bears count 3-14-2016

It is really really hard which side to come into. Both counts (bullish or bearish) are really still in play. No confirmation from both parties, and all people are mind bugged  on any technical expert's count or advise.

I myself want to lean towards Tony's count as a failed Primary Wave 5. and bear market underway, but current counter rally is too good to be true to resume it's uptrend.

I recommend to watch closely and wait for more confirmation, as these times for me will be high risk to go LONG, and lesser risk to go SHORT.

Goodluck!

SPX Elliot Wave forecast 3-3-2016

Too lazy to do a full page screenshot/report.

Using ABchart's review as I am also leaning towards his forecast:

PSEi resistance at 6700-6850 has been very tough 2-9-2016

Looks like PSEi resistance around 6700 (breakdown level) up to 6850 (downtrend resistance) will be very tough to beat.

Looking to cut losses at these levels when it hit these area last week.

US markets are very confusing, either:
1. higher low to make higher high than Jan
2. looking to make lower low vs Jan lows

SPX: the fate of the entire world will be on SPX tonight 1-20-2016

SPX (S&P500) Elliot Wave Count 10-9-2015

 Scenario 1 (50%) - Bullish Count

a break above 2040-2050 will confirm this count

Scenario 2 (50%) - slightly Bearish count, looking for a new downtrend low before the continuation of P5

if SPX encounters strong resistance near 2040-2050 and corrects, this could be the count

SPX update 10-2-2015

S&P500 daily and weekly charts. Best case Elliot Wave scenario 9-4-2015

We have been monitoring the negative divergence of RSI and MACD on our Weekly Charts. And this tool suggests that an upcoming correction or change of trend is ahead of time. This negative divergence took almost 2 years to develop an outcome, and so it happened this May 2015.

I have been frustrated that change of trend or even a correction was not seen since the negative divergence has happened, it made me lessen my risk, making me not so profitable for the past 2 years.

I am still in the learning stage, and seeing this -12% correction relieves me that technical indicators are true, may take time, but still has good chance of outcome.

Now that US already corrected, and highest chance of probability that:

a. Major A bottomed on 1867 and we are in the current Major B bottom before a Major C decline to finish Primary IV. Target of 1820-1870 (70%)

b. We are in the final stage of Major C decline where Major A = 2.618 Major C. ( I think its to early to call this, too much of a flash crash and V shape recovery) (30%)

Cheers!

Elliot Wave forecast and analysis for SPX (S&P500) 8-25-2015

We have been monitoring US stock market technicals on a daily basis, but sorry that have not the time to upload them every time.

Last time we posted, we have been forecasting a possible Primary Wave III peak soon this year to early next year.

Looks like Primary Wave III peaked last May 2015 and is now under Major A of Primary Wave IV correction due to the ff reasons:
a. invalidating 1973 (wave b or 2 of int wave iv)
b. invalidating 2000 ( int wave iii of Major Wave 4 of Primary Wave III)
** there are alternative counts, but most important is that, there have been Elliot Wave invalidation due to overlapping of waves

Now that SPX corrected 13%, we should look into possibilities of upcoming wave structures.

1. Assuming we are inside Major A of Primary IV, we dissect the minor waves, and we get minor a = 2.618 minor c, which could possible end Major A. then a target upside of Major B before final Major C to end Primary Wave IV near 1750- 1820. Or this could simply be end of correction(if downgrading the wave counts).

2. 2012-2015 uptrend was broken (BLUE) when it went below 1890.

3. The alternative 2009-2015 uptrend line (SKY BLUE) found support last night (1893).

4. The original 2009-2015 uptrend line (MAROON) is at 1820.

Weighing the US stock market, charts look good honestly. But looking outside of it, quite scary:

1. DAX Germany (long term uptrend)
2. FTSE and CAC (could have broken their long term uptrend)
3. HK and Jakarta (confirmed broke below 2009-2015 uptrend)
4. Philippines, Thailand, and Germany (waiting for more confirmation)

SPX, China, HK and PSEi 7-28-2015

Germany, London, HK, China and SPX : weakness strikes 6-9-2015

3 equal Elliot Wave scenarios of S&P500 (SPX) 2-3-2015

 All 3 scenarios above simplify the extension of US markets especially S&P500 (SPX). Out former guess having Sept 2014 the peak of Primary Wave III was invalidated when we made new highs last Nov-Dec 2014.

These 3 scenarios suggest that US market is extending.

And there is 1 scenario of master Tony C. indicating that Primary III could ended and having Major A at new highs, but not thinking of it as of now since I am staying the basic rules of EW.

Thanks and lets see what happens soon.

S&P500, Germany DAX, HK HSI, PSEi, China SSEC snapshots 1-23-2015

Elliot Wave SPX 10-15-2014

Elliot Wave Analysis has confirmed that we are now entering Primary IV correction. And our three scenarios for SPX that we are continuing to monitor has confirmed that this is the most probable count as of this moment.

The break below of 1906 or Int iv of Major 5 has confirmed that the correction was much of a greater degree and option for that new low was that we are now in Primary IV correction which consists of Major A, Major B and Major C.

We also broke below the RED uptrend line since June 2013 which suggests that we have medium term target of 1800.

Positively speaking on the short term, RSI hit 31 and MACD is low, suggesting that we may see Major A ending soon. Rough idea should be around 1818-1874. Then a bounce to 1927(38.2% retracement) or 1906(23.6% retracement) before Major C low.

We need to see Major A first before we can predict Major C.

For now, let us see if Major A extends to the downside or Major B is ready to make short term rally.

SPX Elliot Wave - THREE COMPLETE SCENARIOS 9-25-2014

Updates from our last post SPX THREE COMPLETE ELLIOT WAVE SCENARIOS (8-28-2014)

Looks like scenario #3 is still the current count and pretty much extending.




 SCENARIO#1 SPX makes new high and is finishing Int Wave 3 or have finished, semi BULLISH count (30% chance)

SPX is finishing Int Wave 3 of Major Wave 5 of Primary Wave III, or could have finished if SPX drops below 1900.

If SPX drops 1870-1930 and begins to rally and make new highs, we can forecast Int Wave 5 of end Primary Wave III will be around 2040(0.618% of Int 1) to 2140 (Int 5 = Int 1)

SCENARIO#2 SPX makes new high, long way to go, VERY BULLISH COUNT(20% chance)

This count suggests that SPX just finished Major Wave 3 and has very long way to go to the upside.

Based on Primary I x 1.618 = Primary III. Target could be around 2230.

This is a VERY bullish scenario and for presentation only(with fibonacci retracements/targets) but not the preferred count as of this moment.

 

SCENARIO#3 SPX makes new high, few more room left, BEARISH COUNT(50% chance and bearish consolidation due next)

 I am a little upset that SPX could be extending again.

Based from the price movement, this count suggests that Int wave iv is subdividing, and a tentative minor 1 and minor 2 is placed on the chart.

minor 3 have a target of 2040-2060 upside. and end of minor 5 can be around Oct-Nov 2014.

A fall below 1900 will invalidate this extension and our old forecast that Int v of Major 5 of Primary III ends at 2019.

*All scenarios put 1900 as an important pivot point for Elliot Wave counting.

Good luck. Cheers!

AU, London, Germany, HK, Indonesia, Nasdaq, PSEi, SPX Snapshots 9-10-2014

SPX Elliot Wave THREE COMPLETE SCENARIOS 8-28-2014

SCENARIO#1 SPX makes new high and is finishing Int Wave 3, semi BULLISH count (30% chance)

SPX reached 2000 level for the first time in history. SPX rallied back 4.5% in just 2.5weeks after it corrected 4.5% last July 2014.

This count suggests that SPX has a target of 2000-2060 to finish Int Wave 3. Then Int Wave 4 correction then to finish Int Wave 5(no targets yet) to finish Primary Wave III.

SCENARIO#2 SPX makes new high, long way to go, VERY BULLISH COUNT(20% chance)

This count suggests that Major Wave 3 is going to finish soon and lots of room for US to rally.

After Major Wave 3, we enter Major Wave 4 then another 5 long Intermediate waves before finishing Primary Wave III.

If this happens, SPX could take around 2100-2200 until next year before ending Primary Wave III and this is a very bullish scenario. 20% chance to happen.

SCENARIO#3 SPX makes new high, few more room left, BEARISH COUNT(50% chance and bearish consolidation due next)

This count suggests that we are in the final Intermediate wave 5 of Major 5 of Primary III. And Primary IV correction is coming. Target of around 2000(61.8% of W1) to 2060 (100% of W1).

*when assumed that Int Waves 1,2,3,4 and 5 are April 2014 - August 2014. Has chance that April 2014-August 2014 is just Int Wave 1.