WTIC continue to selloff, next support and Elliot Wave analysis 1-6-2015

Expected WTIC to bounce from 55 area, it did bounce til 58.50 but continued to whipsaw and selloff. (did not manage to reach our 65 target bounce)

We already entered Oil bear market when it fell below 70 level, and the decline in prices is very steep.

50 level should be the next support level, else we could really see 2009 lows at 33.

50 USD per barrel is already very very cheap and most breakeven costs of companies are at 70-80 level. So I am very very cautious as this may spark the next recession by debt defaults (Russia, Middle East and Energy corporate debts).

 

Since Elliot Wave theory is applicable to all index/stocks. I have laid out my EW analysis on WTIC's price movement.

I see a potential bottom or bounce soon with the reason that we could have 5 complete waves down (a-b-c-d-e in red) . 50% chance.

50% chance is that after the 5 complete waves down, we make 3 complete waves up and resume downtrend by another 5 waves down into possibly 33-40 level.



charts by: T. Caldaro and Bouraq(tradingchannels)