SPX update, 5 mini waves down, alarming market 1-30-2014

Bernanke already ended its term and handed over the fate of United States to Yellen.

SPX continued to fall 5 waves down, a warning to everyone that this could be a Primary Wave III formation.

We continue to look closely each day on the movement of US and EU markets, and as of this moment, Short-Medium term uptrend still intact for US Germany and FTSE. and 5 waves down means a possible upward correction to 0.382, I shall downgrade and give 20% probability we are still in an UPTREND. A rally back to 1815 is needed to be bullish.

On the bearish side, the 5 waves down was a big NO NO. Formation like this usually set up a bigger move down, especially selldown was impulsive. We are shy 2 pts SPX and 5pts DOW. It is very close to calling an end of Primary Wave III. A fall below 1767 SPX and 15703 DOW will confirm the Primary Wave III peak. 80% chance

Quite scary, but this could be the correction we are all waiting for. US lost 4.2% since the 2014 peak. And a target downside of 1640 if confirmed Primary Wave III peak.

Hong Kong market, broke down with target downside 1-27-2014

I have been monitoring closely HSI as I started to enter HSI equity around 22,500. I entered last Dec with minimal confidence since China equity fell of and poised to revisit 19xx.

We have drawn downtrend lines since the  Nov2013 peak, and it clearly shows we are still following that trend

Earlier Dec I have already drawn the target downside of HSI since the uptrend channel of June to Nov has broken down with a target downside of 21300 to 22100.

Today as of 10am SGT, HSI lost 500pts at 21950 and looking closely to our initial target downside.

Must wait for US to calm down but has greatly increased my confidence that HSI has better entry point as of this moment.

Long Term uptrend is also at 21000 and once it revisits that area, its a good entry point for Short to Medium term plays.

PSEi as of 10am 1-27-2014

PSEi lost 133pts as of 10am, PSEi bumbed with the 6200 target of ours. This is the effect of US losing 2% last Friday night.

PSEi could take a breathe and gain momentum with a max support of 5954 for its uptrend forming trendlines. Else we may revisit 5600-5800 triple low.

US market is in chance of the Primary IV correction we are waiting for months.

Please check my post yesterday for what US may be heading with.

SPX update and important analysis 1-26-2014

 

SPX fell of another 2% and made the lowest close in 2014. Many issues like China loan having default on Jan31, US uncertainty and awful job results.

Based on Elliot Wave analysis, Upon looking closely SPX, we are still considerating that 1850 peak could be the end of Primary Wave III. BUT, DOW JONES don't confirm the count since it overlapped and made a violation. If I am to re-model Elliot Wave Theory, I would gladly accept overlap with a strict rule that it does not exceed 0.3% above/below the limitation. We will gladly know in weeks time if what could be forming. (60% chance)

Another count brewing is that the 1850 peak is just the minor wave i of int wave v of major wave 5. If SPX does not get below 1767 (15703 for DOW), this could is still the best case scenario and is just the minor wave ii of int wave v. (40% chance and getting less)

There are only 3 waves down as of this moment so a quick bounce back to 1835 is needed to make this market bullish, and a continuation of 5 waves down could trigger a larger selloff in medium term.

This could be it!! Things come along when unexpected, and the long wait correction could be it!

Lets make this simple, for:

BULLISH people: 1767 (15703 for DOW) is a must hold support

BEARISH people: 1767 (15703 for DOW) must get below this support or just make a scary 5 waves down.

Could this be the Primary Wave IV correction we are waiting? 1-25-2014

Could this be the Primary Wave IV correction we are waiting?

Please stay tuned for upcoming post on weighing the recent sell-off in the US. :)