PSEi, looking good, and analyst making it looking better after they being bearish 2-24-2014

I wonder why, most financial institutions, starting to 'hype' again the PSEi. They started publishing their 'bullishness' when we went above 6200-6250, it's a common trait that when the index already rallied 5% or more, we join the bandwagon and forget the technicals.

It is not bad to join the bandwagon, but I feel pity on some of them since they are the ones who are bearish when we are already at 5800 and asking for more downturns(5400). Then now at 6200-6300,they are recommending BUY-ON-BREAKOUT,BUY-ON-DIPS.

That's why I don't read much others forecast because they are full of emotions... Recently, I posted the ff:

Jan 3,2014 - Selling pressure could be over near 5700-5800 and very low chance 5400 is happening.

Jan 8,2014 - Some PSE stocks have bottomed or may be forming a bottom(attached lots of PSE stocks and BUY targets)

Jan 10,2014 - A whipsaw alert was given, with a target 1st support of 5850 for BUYING. It happened!

Jan 21, 2014 - Reconfirmed and re-adjusted that short term uptrend forming for PSEi with minimum targets of 6100-6200.

I am pretty much happy, got 4 out of 4 for PSEi, yet I am half hearted that I did not go "ALL-IN" besides my gut feelings. I am still brought down by other's blurry forecasts.

Anyway, 80%-IN is still good for me. With some more cash in Time Deposits/MMF. Lets cheer up and find out what resistances are in the near future!

-US may have continued to extend its rally, before the anticipated P IV

theamazingchart.blogspot.com

PSEi cheering and most probably broke out 2-17-2014

Did PSEi broke out today?

Over the past few weeks/months, we are monitoring daily that a short term uptrend line is in formation (Dark Blue), it almost broke down into early Feb but we adjusted according and still consider PSEi as a short term uptrend index.

Just today Feb 17,2014, we closed at 6167 and most likely broke out of our Medium term resistance(do I hear people shouting "AT LAST?"), we'll do not start the party yet as we need to break out another set of important resistances to confirm.

The 6185 level where we got our weekly highs 2 weeks ago. And the 6200-6250 area where historical support/resistance has taken place in the past months.

After we get above 6200, we can roughly say our uptrend momentum is increasing with Short-Medium Term targets of 6285 then 6360. Then the critical resistance near 6500.

Our Long Term uptrend line since 2009 is now at 5526 and increasing.

Most of the Bluechips stocks have also broke out of their downtrend lines and most are short term uptrend, we could upgrade some to medium term uptrend when we see momentum picking up.

SPX important updates on the 3 scenarios 2-17-2014

Hi everyone,

As discussed 2 weeks ago, http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2014/02/spx-important-3-scenarios-forecast-both.html, we are having 3 possible elliot wave counts. We laid down 3 possible scenarios and predicted that a good bounce is due after hitting 1730 lows.

It did bounce! But the bounce was so impulsive that many Elliotisticians need to just again the count, including me and the least probability became today's leading count. It exceeded the 31.8%-50% retracement, and now at 78.6% or more.

Overall, the global markets seem to be having these probability:
Medium term uptrend - 50% (increased from 20%)
Medium term downtrend - 50%

SCENARIO #1 (50%) - Bullish scenario, what we had was just correction

This scenario was the least thing people thought in the past weeks, yet market spooked everyone with the unexpected rallies, and many of us need to change counts.

Things happened quite fast and after the 6.4% correction of SPX, it rallied 5.7% in just less than 2 weeks. minor waves are also counted as 1-2-3 and we are in the 3.

This scenario will eventually hit new highs with targets of:
int i = int 5 = 1850-1860
int i 1.318 = 1860-1870
int i 1.618 = 1900

After that, let us see where would the count bring us.

SCENARIO #2 (25% chance) -  slightly bearish correction, and we are just in the Major Wave 4 before a 5 new high.

This scenario is still in since SPX and DOW have not touched and revisited the all time high yet.

Will give it a small chance that we could be in a minor b before a minor c that will completely end Major Wave 4 of Int wave IV of Primary Wave III. With a target downside of 1650 then a final high (Major Wave 5 of Primary Wave III) that could bring us to 2178.

SCENARIO #3 (25%) - Bearish scenario, Primary Wave III in, and Primary Wave IV is in place

The most favorite Elliot Wave count 2 weeks ago was now the least favorite. :(

After SPX retraced 78.6% or more, majority of the people became bullish again and getting less confident that this count is not in place anymore.

I still see this scenario a probable one with 25% chance happening since SPX and DOW did not revisit its all time high yet and we only have 3 waves up as of this moment.

Due to strong rally of the possible Major b of Primary Wave IV, the downside target of Primary Wave IV is not so far from what we projected last time.

Major wave c = a = 1700-1720
Major wave c = 1.618a = 1650-1670


That's life, charts and theories are here for us to have guides and not to persuade the markets. Use them wisely, put your selling targets and cut loss levels and expect the unexpected.

Hong Kong target downside reached! 2-7-2014

Our target area for HK has been reached! Wow. Target range was attained by these reasons:

1. measured length of the uptrend and measured it to the downside after it broke down
2. historical support was in that area.

The dark blue line in the lower area is also the 2009-2014 uptrend line, so it should be a long term support even though China is just 10% away from 2009 lows.

HK market is still weak even if it's P/E is just 9.6x China market dragging HK market.

We are still monitoring closely SPX as to what SCENARIO we could be facing soon

SPX, important! 3 scenarios forecast both bullish and bearish 2-4-2014

US continued to selloff and triggered/violated some important rules to Elliot Wave Theory.

I have laid down 3 important scenarios, most of which already adjusted due to violation of rule last night to the 1767 level.

Overall, the global markets seem to be having these probability:
Medium term downtrend - 80%
Medium term uptrend - 20%

SCENARIO #1 (20%) - Bullish scenario, what we had was just correction

Although what we experienced was 5 waves down, there could be a chance that the RED uptrend line has a support and the previous int wave i of Major wave 4 is a good area for support and we are still in an int wave iv correction prior to final int wave v.

An overlap/exceed below 1729 will invalidate this scenario. 


SCENARIO #2 (40% chance) -  slightly bearish correction, and we are just in the Major Wave 4 before a 5 new high.

SCENARIO #2 suggests that what we had for 1850 was just a Major Wave 3 peak of Primary Wave III, and we are inside the Major Wave 4 correction before we end to new highs to Major Wave 5 of Primary Wave III.

We could rally back 38.2% to 50% (1778 to 1790) before making new lows near 1635 (which is the 38.2% correction of the entire Major Wave 3.

Although this count will make the US markets extend again, I believe the chance this will happen is higher compared to Scenario #1.


SCENARIO #3 (40%) - Bearish scenario, Primary Wave III in, and Primary Wave IV is in place

Scenario #3 suggest that 1850 peak was already the Primary Wave III peak, and what we have right now is the Primary Wave IV correction everyone is waiting.

And the 5 mini waves could just be a minor a of Major A. Before the final Major C to finish Primary Wave IV. We may spend 1-2 more months at a minimum to go down-up-down-up-down-down.

Comparing the Primary Wave II correction last 2011, it retraced to 38.2% of the entire Primary Wave I (around 20% correction estimate). If we are going to follow exactly the 38.2% retracement, we have a target of around 1560.

I preferably want Scenario #3 to happen, the 2013 US rally was enormous at almost 32% and overextended its rally already. Time to shave some of the gains for this market to be healthy.


** 38.2% targets are rough estimate, and there are times market overextend to 50% to 61.8% retracements

PSEi not looking good as well 2-4-2014

PSEi broke down the anticipated short term uptrend line at 5968.
PSEi should find support near 5700-5800 the 4th time around. Worst case in the medium term is what if it does not hold the 4th time around. Worst case bullish scenario at 5500.

The selloff in US caused an important breakdown scenario that caused short sellers to sell more and bullish people to cutloss. Will shortly upload analysis on how deep we could be facing at best and worst case scenarios.

SPX not looking so good 2-3-2014

spx touched 1766 as of 1115pm SGT Feb 3, 2014. This is it!! another violation to elliot wave rule. and a quick confirmation that major 3 or primary III has ended. Elliotisticians must act and re adjust count if necessary.

lesson to everyone, buying on a breakout is not always a good idea 2-3-2014

lesson to everyone, buying on a breakout is not always a good idea.

I really don't do this strategy in my entire life, as there is a huge risk on doing it. Even though someone is saying a huge Volume on a breakout indicates a successful move. It aint 100% going to that direction.

Sometimes volume traders just make a false breakout making you accumulate what they sold.

Last week, I heard many firms upgraded their forecast with some "buy on breakout" strategies, I can't help but comment on them. Since what they received was another "WHIPSAW"

So just my two cents, just do accumulate on lows, where volume is low, RSI is very low and technical trendlines are pointing to a possible medium to long term support.

PSEi short term uptrend support now at 5968, and a break below that level will make us revisit again 5700-5800, remember, the more times it get to a support, the more exhausted it gets.


Peace!