Sorry for not posting for more than a month, quite busy on tasks and travels. :)
PSEi went UP UP and away! feeling great that was able to buy into the bottom 5700-6000 and foreign buyers began accumulating daily making all stocks up for the year!
Before we analyze PSEi, we must see what's happening outside. And technically and fundamentally, it ain't looking good, as much as we see PSEi being very strong. :)
As expected, global markets continued to rally and make new highs for US as they bounced off their uptrend supports(short term and medium term). And one of my strategy is to analyze things once any equity market makes or breaks out to new highs.
US markets(DOW and SPX finally went in sync), while NASDAQ was not able to make new highs.
#1 SCENARIO(BULLISH) : Main count by Elliotisticians but not my preferred count - 30% chance
#2 Bearish ALTERNATE COUNT SPX - 40% chance (MY PREFERRED COUNT)
#3 semi-bullish ALTERNATE COUNT SPX - 30% chance
#1 SCENARIO : Main count by Elliotisticians but not my preferred count - 30% chance
Primary
Wave III is still very far. We are just in the int wave iii and target
for int wave iii is 1950 before int wave iv correction then another new
high to end Primary Wave III.
Must hold above 1800 to happen.
#2 ALTERNATE COUNT SPX - 40% chance (MY PREFFERED COUNT)
SPX = 1900 = 1.618 of Int i ( to form the Major Wave 5 of Primary Wave III)
The recent all time high of SPX (1897.28) met the 1.618 of Int i wave, and 4% correction came fast. The typical behavior of wave counts.
Analyzing things, we may, "we may" have hit the high already of the Month of April,or the high of Q2 2014. This #1 alternative count of SPX suggest that Primary Wave III has been met and Primary Wave IV coming (10-20% correction). This is the worst count in case it happens.
fall below 1800 will trigger this scenario.
*Weekly SPX and DOW also in Negative Divergence. The last time Weekly Charts went Negative Divergence and corrected was the 20% correction last 2011.
#3 semi-bullish ALTERNATE COUNT SPX - 30% chance
The 1898 high was just the Int wave i of Major Wave 5, before Primary Wave III ends.
fall below 1800 will trigger this scenario. but must not get below 1740.
NASDAQ is also in the brink of breaking below its Nov 2012 - April 2014 uptrend, so its a MUST WATCH!
FTSE is also in the bring of breaking below its May 2012 to April 2014 uptrend rally. So must really WATCH!
Good news for Philippines!
We were able to get uptrend momentum when we broke out of 6500 medium term downtrend channel(IN RED).
Short term uptrend is also intact, and we are upgrading it to a Medium term uptrend.
Medium term uptrend is quite overheating and may reach some breather anytime when we hit 6650-6700 level. In the case it is able to get above 6650-6700. Extreme resistance is at 6800.
TEL is still at 2800 and underperforming, so it is quite hard for me to tell if it is time to unload some or buy on breakout.
PSEi now at 20x. Quite uncomfortable level, so sold some positions today and yesterday for profit taking. Still maintaining 75%equity-25%cash portfolio from 85-15
6450 is a good entry level for those who were not able to chase in.
