SPX update, 5 mini waves down, alarming market 1-30-2014

Bernanke already ended its term and handed over the fate of United States to Yellen.

SPX continued to fall 5 waves down, a warning to everyone that this could be a Primary Wave III formation.

We continue to look closely each day on the movement of US and EU markets, and as of this moment, Short-Medium term uptrend still intact for US Germany and FTSE. and 5 waves down means a possible upward correction to 0.382, I shall downgrade and give 20% probability we are still in an UPTREND. A rally back to 1815 is needed to be bullish.

On the bearish side, the 5 waves down was a big NO NO. Formation like this usually set up a bigger move down, especially selldown was impulsive. We are shy 2 pts SPX and 5pts DOW. It is very close to calling an end of Primary Wave III. A fall below 1767 SPX and 15703 DOW will confirm the Primary Wave III peak. 80% chance

Quite scary, but this could be the correction we are all waiting for. US lost 4.2% since the 2014 peak. And a target downside of 1640 if confirmed Primary Wave III peak.

Hong Kong market, broke down with target downside 1-27-2014

I have been monitoring closely HSI as I started to enter HSI equity around 22,500. I entered last Dec with minimal confidence since China equity fell of and poised to revisit 19xx.

We have drawn downtrend lines since the  Nov2013 peak, and it clearly shows we are still following that trend

Earlier Dec I have already drawn the target downside of HSI since the uptrend channel of June to Nov has broken down with a target downside of 21300 to 22100.

Today as of 10am SGT, HSI lost 500pts at 21950 and looking closely to our initial target downside.

Must wait for US to calm down but has greatly increased my confidence that HSI has better entry point as of this moment.

Long Term uptrend is also at 21000 and once it revisits that area, its a good entry point for Short to Medium term plays.

PSEi as of 10am 1-27-2014

PSEi lost 133pts as of 10am, PSEi bumbed with the 6200 target of ours. This is the effect of US losing 2% last Friday night.

PSEi could take a breathe and gain momentum with a max support of 5954 for its uptrend forming trendlines. Else we may revisit 5600-5800 triple low.

US market is in chance of the Primary IV correction we are waiting for months.

Please check my post yesterday for what US may be heading with.

SPX update and important analysis 1-26-2014

 

SPX fell of another 2% and made the lowest close in 2014. Many issues like China loan having default on Jan31, US uncertainty and awful job results.

Based on Elliot Wave analysis, Upon looking closely SPX, we are still considerating that 1850 peak could be the end of Primary Wave III. BUT, DOW JONES don't confirm the count since it overlapped and made a violation. If I am to re-model Elliot Wave Theory, I would gladly accept overlap with a strict rule that it does not exceed 0.3% above/below the limitation. We will gladly know in weeks time if what could be forming. (60% chance)

Another count brewing is that the 1850 peak is just the minor wave i of int wave v of major wave 5. If SPX does not get below 1767 (15703 for DOW), this could is still the best case scenario and is just the minor wave ii of int wave v. (40% chance and getting less)

There are only 3 waves down as of this moment so a quick bounce back to 1835 is needed to make this market bullish, and a continuation of 5 waves down could trigger a larger selloff in medium term.

This could be it!! Things come along when unexpected, and the long wait correction could be it!

Lets make this simple, for:

BULLISH people: 1767 (15703 for DOW) is a must hold support

BEARISH people: 1767 (15703 for DOW) must get below this support or just make a scary 5 waves down.

Could this be the Primary Wave IV correction we are waiting? 1-25-2014

Could this be the Primary Wave IV correction we are waiting?

Please stay tuned for upcoming post on weighing the recent sell-off in the US. :)

TEL and BDO joined the 'breakout' team 1-22-2014

TEL broke out from 2700 resistance and now in uptrend. Resistance short term is at 2800 then 2830, but I think it can go as high as 2900 if we remain strong. Ex-date and special dividend will be around March 2014 and we could go around 2800-2900 at the time of Ex-date.

BDO just broke out of 74 and now could be turning into uptrend. Initial uptrend resistance is 74.5 and increasing, we have a target of 78 medium term for  the Dec2013 high.

PSEi still looking to hit 6100-6200 based on my initial targets, a sideways pattern for US can fuel PSEi to our initial target before any major move.



Cheers!

2 scenarios brewing for SPX's drop 1-14-2014

2 scenarios brewing:

1. We are finishing with the minor wave ii correction of int wave V of the final Major Wave V of the extended Primary Wave III. Should be around 1800-1817. A break below 1768 will invalidate the scenario (50% chance)

2. The unofficial elliot wave count for SPX (not for DOW JONES-some violations) says that we may have ended already the major wave V of either Major Wave III or Major Wave V of this Primary Wave III Bull Market (50% chance). Will confirm if it falls below 1768 soon.

WHIPSAW alert: what a market! 1-10-2014

PSEi did not hold to its 'possible' uptrend support and broke down again.

Most of the stocks broke the formation of an uptrend channel. Will just accumulate and average down near the lows.

It's a WHIPSAW!!

Looking for PSEi to find supports on these levels:
1st support - 5850
2nd and important support - the 5700-57xx area where we held 3x and bounced
worst case - if we fall below 5700 area, 5420 is next

I guess will just wait for next week's US debt issue and US' possible double digit correction. Will save me some bullets :)

How amazing charts are! some PSE stocks may have bottomed, or forming a bottom 1-8-2014

(PSEi, LPZ, EDC,FLI,FGEN, FPH, MPI, TEL, SMPH, MWC)

This is why I love charts!

By combining Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonacci Retracements and Projections, we can clearly dissect down charts and see how emotions could lead to something and how we can forecast and make use of other people's emotions to predict stock market!

Although things might not be in shape yet, I myself is having some technical indicators that bottom for some stocks could be possibly in the works or have bottomed already.

I am anticipating a double digit correction in the U.S. soon, but locally speaking(PSEi)- if and only if U.S. extended its gains in a month maybe, we may see good chance to revisit 6100-6200 first before anything else.

I made below retracement targets of "possible" Primary Wave IV.

The usual sequence: Major wave A, then a rally to Major wave B before a final decline to Major wave C to finish any wave II or IV correction.

Please take a look and share how brilliant charts are and how they are inter related to each others. (These may be just a snapshot of what may happen next, either we have bottomed or continue to go down)

We start with  --- C = 0.5 of A (PSEi and LPZ)

Then we check --- C = 0.618 A ( EDC, FLI and FGEN)

Then --- C = 0.782 of A (TEL, SMPH, MPI, FPH) These level's are already a good starting point to BUY, especially when mini waves have already formed in a 3 or 5 waves down.

Lastly, the one who made many people CRY with impulsive selloffs (MWC), this had a 1:1 correlation and value almost lost half of it's value. Charts looking good! Also is forming a bullish head and shoulder pattern

Fobonacci Retracements:

23.6% - seldom used
38.2%
50%
61.8%
78.6%
100%
161.8% -extremes yet probable during rallies, can also be experienced on selloffs
261.8% -super rare

added 130% fresh funds to my charity account 1-7-2014

Added 130% fresh funds to my charity account.

Bought some SMPH shares. :)

My charity fund is for long term positions with only around 2-5x trades per year. :)

MBT, BDO and PSEi forecast 1-6-2014

MBT reached 79.10 as of 250pm SGT. High likely it broke out from its short term-medium term downtrend channel.

1st resistance is 79 area, which I think is just a temporary resistance, and a breakout of that level could lead us all the way to 83.70 level and so on. This could possibly it! A good attempt can make PSEi alive again and turn MBT to an UPTREND stock.

Unloaded 15% of MBT at 79.05 today, to bring good luck and achieve 83.70 target level soon.

Another banking stock I am looking at is BDO. It looks weak lately buy could be a chance to follow MBT's footstep.

A resistance of 75 is in place, but a breakout of that level could give us an upside of 80-82.

This is one of the stocks that Foreign are doing the NINJA MOVE. If foreign is done buying this stock, they could kick this soon, but if not, I believe a dead cat bounce can catch attention before they drop this stock again.

I really feel that PSEi has bottomed short-medium term with target of 6100-6200.

The only thing that could neutralize this forecast is when US peaks its Primary Wave III and goes to Primary Wave IV(10-20%) correction. 50% chance

And another 50% chance that after 0.5% to 1.5% correction of US within this 2 weeks, an extension of rally to new highs could occur.

Part of my Portfolio and PSEi "bullish" forecast 1-3-2013

My only stock in my portfolio which has turned to GREEN ! 40-50%. Cash still sitting on the sideline :)

Most of the stocks I observed have already executed the NINJA MOVE, the false breakdown strategy that will trigger stop loss on several brokers/machine and automatically buy up after an hour or two.

These gave us a hint that possible bottom could be seen soon!

Now that US may give back the 30% YTD gains for 2013, we may see some weakness soon, and that weakness could finally give us a final blow to accumulate PSEi stocks.

Elliot Wave also suggests that final minor wave c of Major Wave C could be coming after minor wave b  rally to 6000-6500 level(estimate of 6100-6200). If ever minor wave of Major Wave C could be a higher low, then its OK as long as US corrects healthy in the coming months.

If ever PSEi dont hold around 5700-5800, the 4.5yr bullish uptrend support is now at 5420 and increasing. which means downside of only 200-300 pts below the 52week low, giving less risk than before. A break below 5420 is still a white flag for me buy when it hits that level but if it holds I strongly BELIEVE  Medium-Long Term downward pressure could be over!

Good luck and happy hunting!!

PSEi opens and nearly losing all it's gains yesterday 1-3-2013

PSEi opened -72 pts. now at 5905. Another whipsaw!

As long as it closes near 5910, we can still grant its breakout yesterday.

Roller coaster ride! US and Asia markets not in sync, its hard to trade recently.

Let us see what happens on the 2nd day trading of 2014 !

US Markets down on the very first day of 2014 1-3-2013

US Markets down on the very first day of 2014, 1st time in 5yrs.

Elliot Wave count now at the hardest point in time.

NASDAQ - shouting that Major Wave 4 correction coming (3-5%) before extending to new highs

DOW - shouting that its just a minor correction and rally will be extending till 17,000+

S&P500 - shouting that we may have ended Major Wave 5 and PRimary Wave III

Time will tell who's the correct count ..

Cheers!

FGEN, something fishy, looking bullish short term 1-2-2014

 Something brewing, smart money looks like moving, saw huge moves on FGEN FPH and other Lopez related stocks.

FGEN - we forecasted a bottom near 12-13 before a good bounce to 14-14.50 (38.2% and 50% retracement of wave 3 of Major wave C of Primary Wave IV, this could possibly it!! Afterwards, if it didnt revist the 12-13 level, we can finally call it a failed truncation and will be the bottom for FGEN for 2013 and 2014.



A move to 12-13 or lower will be the final wave 5 downward of Major Wave C of Primary Wave IV, and a powerful Primary Wave V rally will be next.

All other Lopez to follow the direction. Lets have this a good 2014 !

Happy New Year!!! Let us welcome 2014 !!

Happy New Year!! Have a good feeling that we will break out of the downtrend lines short term.

A breakout of 5945 can help us gain upward momentum to 6100 to 6200 short term.

This downtrand channel since Oct 23,2013 has already been deep and could pose a short term breakout.

Ceveat!