WTIC update and expecting a bottom 10-24-2014

In relation to our post for WTIC 2 weeks ago http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2014/10/wtic-reached-oct-2012-lows-10-10-2014.html

 
WTIC managed to get as low as 79.xx intraday. As US selloff made Oil traders cash out as well. I expect WTIC to hold around 77-81 level and bounce 3-6months to around 90-100 level.

In terms of price here in the Philippines. 81USD per barrel = 82 x 44.80 / 119.24(liters per barrel) = 30.80 pesos per liter.

Adding their gross profit margin and inventory costs of 20%. 30.80 + 20% margin = Diesel prices of 36.96 pesos per liter could be the bottom.  

Low WTIC could increase profits of companies and decrease inflation, make car owners happy and increase traffic.

GDP wise, low WTIC can be economical friendly, but don't expect to hold at these low levels.

* break below of 77-81 could bring WTIC to 67-73 level.

Elliot Wave SPX 10-15-2014

Elliot Wave Analysis has confirmed that we are now entering Primary IV correction. And our three scenarios for SPX that we are continuing to monitor has confirmed that this is the most probable count as of this moment.

The break below of 1906 or Int iv of Major 5 has confirmed that the correction was much of a greater degree and option for that new low was that we are now in Primary IV correction which consists of Major A, Major B and Major C.

We also broke below the RED uptrend line since June 2013 which suggests that we have medium term target of 1800.

Positively speaking on the short term, RSI hit 31 and MACD is low, suggesting that we may see Major A ending soon. Rough idea should be around 1818-1874. Then a bounce to 1927(38.2% retracement) or 1906(23.6% retracement) before Major C low.

We need to see Major A first before we can predict Major C.

For now, let us see if Major A extends to the downside or Major B is ready to make short term rally.

PSEi Philippines index analysis 10-13-2014

It has been a long time since I posted PSEi chart.

Our last play earlier this year was to enter 5800-6000 but was able to unload very early around 6700-6900 on almost half of my holdings. I got scared when we freely moved 7200-7400 without concrete resistances(it is the area where 2013 peak and most people got stucked). PE also reached 21.5x at 7400.

We laid out 11months uptrend support since PSEi bottomed at 5800. The 7400 peak could be a double top pattern.

Important support to look into is the uptrend line since 5800. It should be around 7000 where strictly speaking must hold else medium term trend could be to the downside.

Market is still 7000 level as of 2pm 10/13/2014. But in case it breaks below 7000.

Immediate supports will be 6900 and 6700, and technically speaking, it could be as low as 6400.

2009-2014 Bull Market uptrend line is around 6000. If there is a chance it goes to that level, it is a no brainer ALL-IN.

Goodluck. Cheers! :)

*maintaining 85% cash

Germany and London FTSE, confirmed in downtrend, target downside and supports 10-13-2014

We are closely monitoring Germany for the past days/weeks. And the Head and Shoulder formation was confirmed when it closed 2.3% lower last Friday to 8788. The neckline was 9000 and Head and Shoulder pattern was clearly in place.

We laid down some important supports or target downside for Germany

1st - 2year uptrend line since 2012(in BLUE) which broke down with target of 8500

2nd - Head and Shoulder pattern with target of 8000

38.2% retracement of entire Primary III since 2011 could also be around 8180 level

50% retracement of entire Primary III since 2011 could also be around 7500

Roughly saying, if Germany also enters Primary Wave IV, we have a target of 7500-8180 at most or 8000-8500 as a safer bet. Charts looks oversold with RSI 22.

* 2009-2014 bull market uptrend line is at 6750.

London also joined the selloff when it broke below the descending triangle. We are closely monitoring the formation since it began pushing upwards to the 6850 level to make new highs for the year. It managed to hit 6850 6times this year but often closed below that level.

The descending triangle formation has a very low target of 6000-6100.

Other immediate supports are 6337 and 6030

Fibonacci retracements from 2011 lows have a target 6000(38.2%) and 5850(50%)

while Fobonacci retracements from 2012 lows have a target of 6300(38.2%) and 6000(50%)

Roughly saying, London FTSE with RSI of 24 can get lower with target downside of 6000-6300.

* 2010-2014 uptrend line has a strong support at 6000.

WTIC reached Oct 2012 lows 10-10-2014

WTIC or Crude Oil reached its Oct 2012 lows after breaking below 91USD per barrel.

We may see support near 84 which is the Oct 2012 lows and I have a guess that we will bounce from here.

As of the meantime, Philippines may expect below 40pesos per liter for Diesel, hurraayy! And a lot of traffic in exchange. Booo ! haha.

London, Germany and Russell. Making markets look spooky! 10-8-2014

FTSE seems to break below our post last week with a target of 6000-6100. Another possible support for FTSE is 6450. If it falls below this area, we can confirm that FTSE is going to that direction.

Germany is looking scary as of this moment. The Head and Shoulder pattern is in place and is now the 3rd time to have a base around 9000 level.

A break below 9000 will confirm multiple supports including the HnS pattern with a target of 8000.

Russell is also one of the markets we are looking at. It reached 1076 last night and is looking to break below 2014 support. A fall below have a target of 1000.

DOW,SPX and NASDAQ still is on uptrend but may be looking to follow once these 3 important index confirm something.

This week up to next week will be quite interesting, either we all bounce from these critical levels, or we all break below 2014 lows.