Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Greece debt crisis: Who has to lose most if default happens 1-29-2015



























cnn.com

Thursday, January 22, 2015

S&P500, Germany DAX, HK HSI, PSEi, China SSEC snapshots 1-23-2015






US Dollar Index, continues to climb up 1-23-2015


Europe announced "quantitative easing", same as what US injected since 2008 to boost US economy.

Japan also did the same for years time now, but still not able to lift them from recession.

US Dollar is continuing to post its 5yr high, and is in uptrend since 2009. The QE of Europe and Japan made their currencies weak, that made USD more value compared to others printing new paper bills.

I believe we can hold more time to our USD denomination as there are still more upside, a sideways then to upside is still the safest way to interpret this currency. While others are hitting to their 10yr multi lows.

EURUSD=X01:07am EST1.1328 
AUDUSD=X01:09am EST0.7991



 
USDCAD=X01:07am EST1.2398

USDAUD=X01:07am EST1.2513
USDJPY=X01:07am EST118.3800
USDCNY=X01:06am EST6.2262
USDPHP=X01:07am EST44.1545
 
TWDPHP=X01:10am EST1.4063
CADPHP=X01:11am EST35.6020
    

Monday, January 5, 2015

WTIC continue to selloff, next support and Elliot Wave analysis 1-6-2015

Expected WTIC to bounce from 55 area, it did bounce til 58.50 but continued to whipsaw and selloff. (did not manage to reach our 65 target bounce)

We already entered Oil bear market when it fell below 70 level, and the decline in prices is very steep.

50 level should be the next support level, else we could really see 2009 lows at 33.

50 USD per barrel is already very very cheap and most breakeven costs of companies are at 70-80 level. So I am very very cautious as this may spark the next recession by debt defaults (Russia, Middle East and Energy corporate debts).




Since Elliot Wave theory is applicable to all index/stocks. I have laid out my EW analysis on WTIC's price movement.

I see a potential bottom or bounce soon with the reason that we could have 5 complete waves down (a-b-c-d-e in red) . 50% chance.

50% chance is that after the 5 complete waves down, we make 3 complete waves up and resume downtrend by another 5 waves down into possibly 33-40 level.



charts by: T. Caldaro and Bouraq(tradingchannels)