ICT: dropped 61.8% full retracement since 2009 1-21-2016

* I still remember ICT trading at 10pesos way 2009, and I will repeat my comment again, the more you gain, the more you drop.

PE still high, and if reached 35 per share, maybe I will reconsider.

As of this moment, selloff is too quick, hard to forecast support, but fibonacci and technical analysis really helped a lot in these times.

PSEi update 1-21-2016

PSEi lost 32% since peak of 8100 last 2015.

I was expecting a new high for the US, but the recent drop was so massive that all of Asia except Japan technically broke down from their Bull Market trendlines.

Wave counts in the US could have ended last night, and a "bear" rally could happen anytime soon. PSEi could even reach 6600 but technical traders may further sell on rally on recent news.

I have no plan to enter big time at this level, I know we are getting slightly cheaper valuation wise(17x PE), but seeing most Blue Chips getting killed from their 2009-2016 uptrend lines. Still recommending to further wait for US development.

PCOR: Flushed out, very near to 2009 lows 1-21-2016

All markets: Edge of the cliff 1-21-2016

*from COL

Crude Oil: Reposting from Jobjas 1-21-2016

SPX: the fate of the entire world will be on SPX tonight 1-20-2016

AGI and RCB: reached 61.8% retracement of entire bull market 1-20-2016

MBT dives again, alternate bull market support in danger 1-19-2016

PSEi full review. Bears could be taking over 1-16-2016

 I am very sorry that I am not posting any updates since November/December as market was going sideways.

Recent happenings were sooo massive that medium/long term indicators were hit, and adjustments are necessary on our projections.

#1. (RED COLOR)
2.5year MEDIUM term uptrend broke down last Aug
- was still OK as market went sideways


#2. (BLUE COLOR)
6.5year LONG term uptrend broke down last week (Jan 6, 2016)
- THIS was an important event for 2016, when 6.5year bull MAY ended its peak last May 2015 at 8095 points.
- 6600 resistance will be the ultimate resistance to regain bullishless of PSEi

#3 (GREEN COLOR)
alternative 6.5year LONG term uptrend support at 6000
- this is just a plain alternative when drawing lines from 2007 peak to 2015 peak, and drawing parallel uptrend from 2009 bottom.
- NOT the main count right now, just a possible alternative LONG term uptrend line

2009-2016 (PROBABLE) ELLIOT WAVE count

- Since the start of 2009 Bull Market, I have been tracing the potential Elliot Wave count of PSEi, although no one is primarily using EW analysis on PSEi, I believe the concept of following counts can still be applied to PSEi.

- Primary V (April 2015) may already the peak of this Bull Market.

- US markets should still be the key EW count to follow and will post early next week.


CONCLUSIONS:

1. Technically speaking, after we break below 6600. PSEi's charts says we are probably in a Bear Market already

2. the 6000 alternative bull market support is just SPECULATIVE.

3. We should wait for EW count of US markets to give us clear idea.

4. 18x P/E for PSEi is still high (6450)

5. 6.5year bull market is longer than typical 4-5year average bull market

6. US just raised 25BSP interest rate, so historically speaking, everyone has no idea how to compare to century old US data where typical bull market peaks when interest rate gets too high.

7. No plans on trading the market, 15% equity portfolio got stuck last Dec. Cash is king.

8. Adjust as necessary, admit our mistakes, and learn from it.


CURRENT PORTFOLIO:

PESO:
30% equity/stocks, 70% cash
90% preferred shares, 10% cash

DOLLAR:
10% cash, 10% US Junk bonds, 80% PH Corporate Bonds

Goodluck!

Oil price too bearish. Positive divergence seen but too early to call