HK and Indonesia in a 'technical' bear market 9-4-2015

Australia, Germany, London, China 9-4-2015

S&P500 daily and weekly charts. Best case Elliot Wave scenario 9-4-2015

We have been monitoring the negative divergence of RSI and MACD on our Weekly Charts. And this tool suggests that an upcoming correction or change of trend is ahead of time. This negative divergence took almost 2 years to develop an outcome, and so it happened this May 2015.

I have been frustrated that change of trend or even a correction was not seen since the negative divergence has happened, it made me lessen my risk, making me not so profitable for the past 2 years.

I am still in the learning stage, and seeing this -12% correction relieves me that technical indicators are true, may take time, but still has good chance of outcome.

Now that US already corrected, and highest chance of probability that:

a. Major A bottomed on 1867 and we are in the current Major B bottom before a Major C decline to finish Primary IV. Target of 1820-1870 (70%)

b. We are in the final stage of Major C decline where Major A = 2.618 Major C. ( I think its to early to call this, too much of a flash crash and V shape recovery) (30%)

Cheers!

Philippines PSEi 9-2-2015

Elliot Wave forecast and analysis for SPX (S&P500) 8-25-2015

We have been monitoring US stock market technicals on a daily basis, but sorry that have not the time to upload them every time.

Last time we posted, we have been forecasting a possible Primary Wave III peak soon this year to early next year.

Looks like Primary Wave III peaked last May 2015 and is now under Major A of Primary Wave IV correction due to the ff reasons:
a. invalidating 1973 (wave b or 2 of int wave iv)
b. invalidating 2000 ( int wave iii of Major Wave 4 of Primary Wave III)
** there are alternative counts, but most important is that, there have been Elliot Wave invalidation due to overlapping of waves

Now that SPX corrected 13%, we should look into possibilities of upcoming wave structures.

1. Assuming we are inside Major A of Primary IV, we dissect the minor waves, and we get minor a = 2.618 minor c, which could possible end Major A. then a target upside of Major B before final Major C to end Primary Wave IV near 1750- 1820. Or this could simply be end of correction(if downgrading the wave counts).

2. 2012-2015 uptrend was broken (BLUE) when it went below 1890.

3. The alternative 2009-2015 uptrend line (SKY BLUE) found support last night (1893).

4. The original 2009-2015 uptrend line (MAROON) is at 1820.

Weighing the US stock market, charts look good honestly. But looking outside of it, quite scary:

1. DAX Germany (long term uptrend)
2. FTSE and CAC (could have broken their long term uptrend)
3. HK and Jakarta (confirmed broke below 2009-2015 uptrend)
4. Philippines, Thailand, and Germany (waiting for more confirmation)