EEI: in technical bear market due to big loss in Saudi Arabia Q3 2015

RWM, BLOOM and MCP: we just need to accept that gaming/casino in the PH is already not working 11-6-2015

RWM, BLOOM and MCP: we just need to accept that gaming/casino in the PH is already not working.

Most gaming stocks do not even go near it's breakeven cost, and posting large net losses. I believe PH gaming companies have reached their maximum potential 3years ago when 1 player joined PAGCOR.

TEL: not looking good, entering Technical Bear Market 11-6-2015

2000 target is YR2011 lows
and 1850-1900 target is 2009 lows

With recent news that TEL's earnings disappoint, I believe GLO should selloff too. and GLO's values wayyy higher than TEL's 16x.

Another probable news is that SMC is joining the telcos offered in the Philippines, so good competition means less income.

We can't blame the performance of it's stock, since TEL is traded in the NYSE, and traders in NYSE are very sensitive to earnings.

Down are the days where we get 6-7% cash dividends from telcos. I am scared that we could retrace 38.2% or 50% since the 2003 rally(where price is just 300 per share).

metrobank update : did not break out of downtrend range 11-4-2015

Gma7 2016 election play 11-3-2015

TEL update 10-27-2015

MBT chart review 10-26-2015

GMAP/GMA7 : Election Play has paid off 10-26-2015

why so weak RCB?? 10-26-2015

PSEi update 10-19-2015

I have been monitoring MBT and its weakness compared to BDO and BPI and worrying why it is not making new highs despite BDO and BPI making way to make new all time highs. And been stuck in the 74-100 range.

I managed to find time and knowledge how to re-adjust data using the Stock right offerings(SRO) that happened 2013 and 2014.

I tried to balance formulas how Bloomberg data managed to readjust data based from SRO.

P/E is 12x and relatively around the average fairly priced banks.

The process of issuing SRO can be mind buggling as a technical and fundamental trader, but I realized, things should balance out and adjust as necessary.

Looking into when it hit 100, It should have been a sell, since the spike from 68 to 103 last 2013 was a parabolic curve that near 100 was somewhat overpriced.

MBT is now in sideways pattern, and 6years bull market support has been re-adjusted for technical purposes.

Short term trades: resistance at 87-88, and if it breaks out, we may revisit 90-94

*seeing a head and shoulder pattern as well. But not to worry as of now. Will only be confirmed when it gets below 75. very very small chance to happen.

Jakarta avoided "technical bear market", HK still below expectations 10-9-2015

SPX (S&P500) Elliot Wave Count 10-9-2015

 Scenario 1 (50%) - Bullish Count

a break above 2040-2050 will confirm this count

Scenario 2 (50%) - slightly Bearish count, looking for a new downtrend low before the continuation of P5

if SPX encounters strong resistance near 2040-2050 and corrects, this could be the count

TEL, RCB, LPZ, ICT, FLI, AGI: update on RSI below 30, most have rallied almost 10% 10-9-2015

SPH : Basura in progress 10-6-2015

Strength of Nikkei lies around its currency Japanese Yen 10-5-2015

PSE stocks below 30 RSI. AGI, ICT, LPZ, PNB, RCB, TEL 10-2-2015

Please take a quick look, and appreciate 5-10year charts of these PSE stocks, most of them are technically in bear market territory. And are included in the Top30 PSE Index.

HK and Indonesia: still under "technical bear market" territory 10-2-2015

SPX update 10-2-2015

HK and Indonesia in a 'technical' bear market 9-4-2015

Australia, Germany, London, China 9-4-2015

S&P500 daily and weekly charts. Best case Elliot Wave scenario 9-4-2015

We have been monitoring the negative divergence of RSI and MACD on our Weekly Charts. And this tool suggests that an upcoming correction or change of trend is ahead of time. This negative divergence took almost 2 years to develop an outcome, and so it happened this May 2015.

I have been frustrated that change of trend or even a correction was not seen since the negative divergence has happened, it made me lessen my risk, making me not so profitable for the past 2 years.

I am still in the learning stage, and seeing this -12% correction relieves me that technical indicators are true, may take time, but still has good chance of outcome.

Now that US already corrected, and highest chance of probability that:

a. Major A bottomed on 1867 and we are in the current Major B bottom before a Major C decline to finish Primary IV. Target of 1820-1870 (70%)

b. We are in the final stage of Major C decline where Major A = 2.618 Major C. ( I think its to early to call this, too much of a flash crash and V shape recovery) (30%)

Cheers!

Philippines PSEi 9-2-2015

Elliot Wave forecast and analysis for SPX (S&P500) 8-25-2015

We have been monitoring US stock market technicals on a daily basis, but sorry that have not the time to upload them every time.

Last time we posted, we have been forecasting a possible Primary Wave III peak soon this year to early next year.

Looks like Primary Wave III peaked last May 2015 and is now under Major A of Primary Wave IV correction due to the ff reasons:
a. invalidating 1973 (wave b or 2 of int wave iv)
b. invalidating 2000 ( int wave iii of Major Wave 4 of Primary Wave III)
** there are alternative counts, but most important is that, there have been Elliot Wave invalidation due to overlapping of waves

Now that SPX corrected 13%, we should look into possibilities of upcoming wave structures.

1. Assuming we are inside Major A of Primary IV, we dissect the minor waves, and we get minor a = 2.618 minor c, which could possible end Major A. then a target upside of Major B before final Major C to end Primary Wave IV near 1750- 1820. Or this could simply be end of correction(if downgrading the wave counts).

2. 2012-2015 uptrend was broken (BLUE) when it went below 1890.

3. The alternative 2009-2015 uptrend line (SKY BLUE) found support last night (1893).

4. The original 2009-2015 uptrend line (MAROON) is at 1820.

Weighing the US stock market, charts look good honestly. But looking outside of it, quite scary:

1. DAX Germany (long term uptrend)
2. FTSE and CAC (could have broken their long term uptrend)
3. HK and Jakarta (confirmed broke below 2009-2015 uptrend)
4. Philippines, Thailand, and Germany (waiting for more confirmation)

Stocks and Indices that are below 30 RSI. Oversold. 8-20-2015

There are a lot of stocks which are extremely oversold, which have potential medium to long term, some of them like SECB, GTCAP, EDC and MBT.

But the weakening of PHP with effect of weakening Stock Market is insisting me to BUY ahead and catch the falling knives.

Another major reason I am not yet bringing all the guns is that PSE in the US broke below the triple support, assuming it also happens in the local PSE. We should see PSE breaking below 7250 as well.

Jakarta and Philippines still digesting the decline 8-20-2015