SPX and NASDAQ, very hard to predict their next step 4-1-2016

SCENARIO#1. Bullish count

US Indices have been very hard to track these past 8 weeks.

From the sharp drop to 1800 that was diagnosed to be either the starting leg of bear market or just the Primary Wave IV correction that will lead us to new all time highs.

The recent retracement to 2050 was the estimated resistance SPX could only reach when you are bearish on the market to resume its downtrend low.

Last few days, SPX managed to reach 2070 level, and simple downtrend resistance shows that it could have broken out already or maybe last line of defense is 2079.

All other markets Asia, Europe have been easy to trace, and moving along the medium term downtrend channel.

All I can suggest is that to watch closely who will win.

PSEi snapshot update 4-1-2016

Europe Indices snapshots: London FTSE and Germany DAX 4-1-2016

Asia Indices snapshots: HK, Indonesia, Japan Nikkei and SSEC China 4-1-2016

1st time to play basura stocks after maybe 5 or 6 years 3-31-2016

First time to play basura stocks after maybe 5 or 6 years? Beginner's luck? or possible I have been an experienced trader already and gained some skills from the 2009 recession. haha.

PHILIPPINE PREFERRED SHARES update 3-16-2016

Updated as of March 16, 2016

The following are the current available Philippine Preferred shares and their updated call dates:

PRF2A - Petron Preferred 2A series - 5.67% NET - Quarterly*
PRF2B - Petron Preferred 2B series - 6.1725% NET - Quarterly*
PFP2 - Purefoods Preferred - 5.09% NET Quarterly*
MWP - Megawide Preferred - 6.3225% NET Quarterly*

SMC2A - SMC 5year - 6.8% net Quarterly* (REDEEMED - not traded anymore)
SMC2B - SMC 7year - 6.975% net Quarterly*
SMC2C - SMC 10year - 7.2% net Quarterly*

SMC2D - SMC 5year - 5.35% net Quarterly*
SMC2E - SMC 7year - 5.692% net Quarterly*
SMC2F - SMC 10year - 6.13% net Quarterly* 

SMC2G - SMC 5year - 5.921% net Quarterly*
SMC2H - SMC 7year - 5.69% net Quarterly*
SMC2I - SMC 10year - 5.70% net Quarterly*
  
FGENF - FirstGen F Shares - 7.2% net Semi-Annual*
FGENG - FirstGen G Shares - 7.0% net Semi-Annual*
ACPB1 - Ayala Preferred - 4.725% net Quarterly*
ACPB2 - Ayala preferred - 5.0175% net Quarterly*
Globe something - 4%(not sure) SEMI-ANNUAL*

PNX3A - Phoenix Petroleum Series 3 - 6.685% net Quarterly*
PNX3B = Phoenix Petroleum Series 3 - 7.425% net Quarterly*

DD - ????? 

All are listed in the Philippine Stocks Exchange and be tradable until their call date. *Percentage(GROSS/NET) are per annum basis., Quarterly and Semi-Annual written down are dividend payouts per year.

Call Dates listed below*:


2017, SEPT - SMC2B 5th year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime
2017, NOV - PRF2A 3rd year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime

2018 - SMC2D 3rd year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime
2018, MAR - PFP2 3rd year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime
2018, JULY - Mandatory Call Date of FGENF

2019 - ACPB2 5th year OPTIONAL redemption
2019, SEPT - SMC2C 7th year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime
2019, NOV - PRF2A Mandatory 5th year Call Date
2019, DEC - MWP 5th Year Optional Redemption - MAY CALL ANYTIME(Tax Event,Taxation) 
2019 - SMC2G 3rd year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime

2020 - Mandatory Call Date of SMC2D (5th year)
2020 - SMC2E 5th year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime
2020, MAR - PFP2 Mandatory 5th year Call Date
2020 -  PNX3a 5th year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime

2021, NOV - PRF2B Mandatory 7th year Call Date
2021 -  Mandatory Call Date of SMC2G (5th year)
2021 -  SMC2H 5th year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime

2022 -  Mandatory Call Date of SMC2E (7th year)
2022 -  SMC2F 7th year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime
2022, JULY - Mandatory Call Date of FGENG
2022, SEPT - Mandatory Call Date of SMC2C
2022 -  Mandatory Call Date of PNX3a (7th year)
2022 -  PNX3B 7th year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime

2023 - ACPB1 10th year OPTIONAL redemption
2023 - SMC2I 7th year OPTIONAL redemption and may call anytime

2024 - ACPB2 10th year MANDATORY redemption 
2024 - Mandatory Call Date of SMC2H (7th year)

2025 -  Mandatory Call Date of SMC2D (10th year)
2025 - Mandatory Call Date of PNX3B (10th year)

2026- Mandatory Call Date of SMC2I (10th year)

2028 - ACPB1 15th year MANDATORY redemption

* listed rates and month/year are the calendar dates I know, please verify exact rates, day, month and year if needed. 
** All have closure that they may extend the Mandatory Call date + some additional %

MBT 3-14-2016

SPX (S&P500): Bulls vs Bears count 3-14-2016

It is really really hard which side to come into. Both counts (bullish or bearish) are really still in play. No confirmation from both parties, and all people are mind bugged  on any technical expert's count or advise.

I myself want to lean towards Tony's count as a failed Primary Wave 5. and bear market underway, but current counter rally is too good to be true to resume it's uptrend.

I recommend to watch closely and wait for more confirmation, as these times for me will be high risk to go LONG, and lesser risk to go SHORT.

Goodluck!

PSEi breakout confirmed last week 3-14-2016

TEL: withrawal of Telstra boosted stock price 3-14-2016

Short term resistances: 2000-2150

Upgraded from Downtrend to Sideways pattern due to unexpected withrawal of Telstra and SMC venture. Boosting TEL and GLO's earnings to be on track for the next 3years.

TEL in bear market, looking for downside targets 3-10-2016

TEL still in Bear Market since we confirmed it late 2015.

And TEL gave up a lot of CASH dividend making foreigners drop this stock.

TEL still in long term Bear Market, but giving it hope by allocating BUY supports which could be around 1300-1500.

No assurance that it will rally, but a manageable support level to calculate its ROI in cash dividend and earnings.

For those who are stucked. I believe, TEL and GLO have already peaked it cycle in the next 5years or so.

PSEI: looks like a breakout after 5 waves down 3-10-2016

* my only concern is that. PH chart only shows breakout from all time high downtrend resistance VS all US, Europe and some Asia.
** SPX same downtrend resistance at 2034 for a clear breakout

SPX Elliot Wave forecast 3-3-2016

Too lazy to do a full page screenshot/report.

Using ABchart's review as I am also leaning towards his forecast:

Sovereign bond yields turning negative. TSK TSK 3-3-2016

will only -5 to -10% equity loss for 2015, posting huge net loss means something is wrong in the system 2-23-2016

Standard Chartered swings to $2.36 bn net loss in 2015

Yahoo News‎ - 3 hours ago

 

HSBC reports net loss of $1.33 billion in Q4

MarketWatch‎ - 1 day ago

 

Deutsche Bank reports €6.8bn net loss - Financial Times

www.ft.com/fastft/2016/01/28/deutsche-bank-reports-e6-8bn-net-loss/

 

GOLD: after 5 years of bear market. Primary B rally? 2-11-2016

* chart belongs to Tony C.

PSEi resistance at 6700-6850 has been very tough 2-9-2016

Looks like PSEi resistance around 6700 (breakdown level) up to 6850 (downtrend resistance) will be very tough to beat.

Looking to cut losses at these levels when it hit these area last week.

US markets are very confusing, either:
1. higher low to make higher high than Jan
2. looking to make lower low vs Jan lows

ICT: dropped 61.8% full retracement since 2009 1-21-2016

* I still remember ICT trading at 10pesos way 2009, and I will repeat my comment again, the more you gain, the more you drop.

PE still high, and if reached 35 per share, maybe I will reconsider.

As of this moment, selloff is too quick, hard to forecast support, but fibonacci and technical analysis really helped a lot in these times.

PSEi update 1-21-2016

PSEi lost 32% since peak of 8100 last 2015.

I was expecting a new high for the US, but the recent drop was so massive that all of Asia except Japan technically broke down from their Bull Market trendlines.

Wave counts in the US could have ended last night, and a "bear" rally could happen anytime soon. PSEi could even reach 6600 but technical traders may further sell on rally on recent news.

I have no plan to enter big time at this level, I know we are getting slightly cheaper valuation wise(17x PE), but seeing most Blue Chips getting killed from their 2009-2016 uptrend lines. Still recommending to further wait for US development.

PCOR: Flushed out, very near to 2009 lows 1-21-2016

All markets: Edge of the cliff 1-21-2016

*from COL

Crude Oil: Reposting from Jobjas 1-21-2016

SPX: the fate of the entire world will be on SPX tonight 1-20-2016

AGI and RCB: reached 61.8% retracement of entire bull market 1-20-2016

MBT dives again, alternate bull market support in danger 1-19-2016

PSEi full review. Bears could be taking over 1-16-2016

 I am very sorry that I am not posting any updates since November/December as market was going sideways.

Recent happenings were sooo massive that medium/long term indicators were hit, and adjustments are necessary on our projections.

#1. (RED COLOR)
2.5year MEDIUM term uptrend broke down last Aug
- was still OK as market went sideways


#2. (BLUE COLOR)
6.5year LONG term uptrend broke down last week (Jan 6, 2016)
- THIS was an important event for 2016, when 6.5year bull MAY ended its peak last May 2015 at 8095 points.
- 6600 resistance will be the ultimate resistance to regain bullishless of PSEi

#3 (GREEN COLOR)
alternative 6.5year LONG term uptrend support at 6000
- this is just a plain alternative when drawing lines from 2007 peak to 2015 peak, and drawing parallel uptrend from 2009 bottom.
- NOT the main count right now, just a possible alternative LONG term uptrend line

2009-2016 (PROBABLE) ELLIOT WAVE count

- Since the start of 2009 Bull Market, I have been tracing the potential Elliot Wave count of PSEi, although no one is primarily using EW analysis on PSEi, I believe the concept of following counts can still be applied to PSEi.

- Primary V (April 2015) may already the peak of this Bull Market.

- US markets should still be the key EW count to follow and will post early next week.


CONCLUSIONS:

1. Technically speaking, after we break below 6600. PSEi's charts says we are probably in a Bear Market already

2. the 6000 alternative bull market support is just SPECULATIVE.

3. We should wait for EW count of US markets to give us clear idea.

4. 18x P/E for PSEi is still high (6450)

5. 6.5year bull market is longer than typical 4-5year average bull market

6. US just raised 25BSP interest rate, so historically speaking, everyone has no idea how to compare to century old US data where typical bull market peaks when interest rate gets too high.

7. No plans on trading the market, 15% equity portfolio got stuck last Dec. Cash is king.

8. Adjust as necessary, admit our mistakes, and learn from it.


CURRENT PORTFOLIO:

PESO:
30% equity/stocks, 70% cash
90% preferred shares, 10% cash

DOLLAR:
10% cash, 10% US Junk bonds, 80% PH Corporate Bonds

Goodluck!

Oil price too bearish. Positive divergence seen but too early to call