Saturday, February 12, 2011

BDO, FLI and AC 2-13-2011

Banks were one of the biggest damages with this entire correction. Banks has gone down to their 40s level since hitting their highs. MBT even just got 55 from its 84 peak, almost cut into half, yet I still assume that 84 is way to overpriced for MBT, with a PE ratio of 22. With its 55 price today, its now into its normal 17PE ratio.


BDO did not hold the initial 50 support, and had an immediate selloff to 47. We had a BUY-rating on this stock last

http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2011/01/bdo-rcb-mpi-1-30-2011.html, but went off due to heavy selling and breakdown of 3800 support. Chart still looks good on its long term uptrend, but its RSI is really alarming and very tempting, RSI at 17? Way too oversold for a bluechip, im still accumulating this stock, knowingly each oversold phases really have a good bounce off, “baka makaikot”. With current price of 47, its now in normal value of 15PE ratio. 2nd cheapest stock in terms of earnings, next to RCB. Though RCB’s fans are not that many.


We managed to discuss FLI last http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2011/01/2nd-liner-properties-fli-and-meg.html, and talked about its a mess to property sector and FLI holders when it hits near 1.00, and it did happened to mess up recently. Personally, i love this stock, very tradable range, but at a price of 1.04, this is the cheapest Property stock available with a PE ratio of 9 only. Though its a 2nd liner property stock. ALI and SMPH has 18PE ratio, im just risking the 2nd liners with enourmous earnings. 2nd cheapest property stock is VLL, with a PE ratio of 10, though traders here are really involved in massive Political issues- the one thing I really avoid, but who knows, it might get a 20% boom in one day like old times.


The old time riches. Ayala Corp. In my own opinion is now at 8th largest overall company in terms of value in Philippines and nearing the double digit runner-ups, lagging from rags-to-riches new companies like Andrew Tan, Cojuanco’s , energy’s, SM, CEB and massive new IPOs etc. Overall, Ayala malls are doing great, BPI doing great also with 16% YoY growth for 2010, MWC’s double digit growth, but its telco GLO, looks like its on a decade downtrend, pulling AC’s value down to 320s (GLO -22% YoY 2010, which amounts to around 5-10B loss of value for AC). Chart looks good, had a healthy correction, but its telco is dragging down to its low support of 300-320. Im a buy on AC, but the earnings of its components really will have a bad upcoming years, GLO will definitely be in a downtrend, and BPI in my opinion will have just 5-7% YoY increase this year. Thus no promising numbers to make AC a highflyer with a return of a slow 380-400pesos fair value.

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