Elliot Wave Analysis of S&P500, and individual review of FLI, MEG, VLL, FGEN, PCOR

S&P Daily Charts seems to be overheating and may take a break very soon, and this tentative Elliot Wave count in S&P suggests that Intermediate Wave III of Primary Wave III may have ended, and is poised to a 1-2month correction, Intermediate Wave II correction lasted 1 month with 11% correction, if that happens to S&P, an estimate alsoof 1170-1178 correction target, which usually find support at Intermediate Wave I peak or Minute i peak of Intermediate Wave III.

Long Term: Neutral to Uptrend
Medium Term: Uptrend but overheating, a good 3-10% correction is a BUY

FLI seems to broke out of its 15-month downtrend channel. Currently it is trading at 10x 2011F and relatively not that expensive. If it indeed broke out of the channel, we expect this stock to revisit 1.31-1.34 heavy resistance, and eventually may revisit it’s 52-week high at 1.50.

Long Term: Sideways

Medium Term: Uptrend to 1.34 then 1.50 if it indeed broke out of the diagonal triangle.

MEG went down to near its 52-week low, hitting 1.58 with the recent sell-offs. It was said on the news that the S.C. news made this stock vulnerable to hidden transcations, and unaffected by the possible breakout of FLI. Another reason why this stock is not flying high near the 15-month downtrend channel resistance, is the MEG Warrant due on 2014, which warrant holders can convert their MEG-Warrant to MEG at 1.0.

This company is high likely to follow ALI and RLC’s footstep in terms of quality project and earnings. Long term uptrend looks so good and we are near its Long term support at 1.40. at current 6.0X 2011F (Bloomberg), its the cheapest Property stock out there in terms of earnings. Accumulate and BUY at 1.60 or below. And lighten around Q4 2013.

Long Term: Uptrend

Medium Term: 15-month downtrend still intact, a breakout above 1.80 will make this revisit 2.20 then 2.40 or even probably 2.70 (52weekhigh)

VLL is another property stock to look into when FLI and MEG breaks out of the range. VLL’s major downtrend resistance is at 3.20s and will follow FLI and Meg’s footstep. At 10X P/E, the company’s earnings is not that expensive, compared to ALI’s 18x 2011F. Short Term UPTREND support at 2.80, accumulate when it dips on this level.

Long Term: Sideways

Medium Term: 15-month downtrend channel still intact.

FGEN is trading near 52-week lows. I accumulated this when it hit below 13.00, EDC’s delay of Geothermal plant Operation sent EDC and FGEN down to their lows, and at 13.00, FGEN is trading at 15x 2011F. Even though AP looks cheaper at 10X 2011F, FGEN 2013 and 2014 Operation and Forecasted earnings are still promising. The Long Term Uptrend channel since the 50% Stock Dividend last 2008 is still intact, and on a 4yr Uptrend Channel. Ideally, the longer the channel, the stronger they are. 12.80s is the 4yr Uptrend Support thus I accumulated a lot, and is planning to get more when it reaches below 13.2

Long Term: Uptrend

Medium Term: Although earnings may dissapoint, this may be an AP like Energy company that doubles in 5 years.

PCOR did a hyperbolic rally from 7 to 19 last 2010-end that made this an expensive company. The hype didnt last long, as 23X P/E 2011F was so expensive, even it did a good 100% increase in QoQ earnings, at current price of 11.20, its still at 18X 2011F.

The huge 8-month downtrend channel is still intact and may take more months of selloffs and calmness before this can move. The important 11.20 support serves as an important pivot level, when it drops below 11.20, we can see 10-10.5 levels. PCOR the company still plans to sell 80-90M remaining shares to fund retirees, so far, i havent seen all the sellings yet, so anytime, they can make this stock lower.

Long Term: Sideways

Medium Term: 8-month Downtrend channel and may take more beatings. Wait for months time or buy on breakout of the Dowtrend channel.