Thursday, March 8, 2012

WTIC, AU, SG, China, Korea, Germany, London

One good indicator that Global Market is slowly growing is about the WTIC or Oil level. Since 2009 dip, Oil has rallied from 33 to 110 due to high demand in Businesses, exports and manufacturing that equals to GDP numbers of a Country. Since 2009, Oil is in bull market, and we expect Oil to rise on a slow uptrend phase together with Equities, and we will not have any problem for a Bull type market, worst case to happen is a hyper parabolic rally of Oil that can dismount the U.S. growth and other Country’s GDP.

Medium Term: Uptrend and 90 Support.

Short Term: Support at 100.

Overall, based on Elliot Wave Theory, current movement is based on the expected short term correction for weeks-few months, and may resume uptrend once Equities get back to fair value and European worries lighten.

AU is still in a Diagonal Triangle Pattern, and is gathering strength for its breakout above 4400 level, Although GDP expectation came only at a half, this country is still strong in Asia. At 13.50X P/E Ratio, AU is competitive and investment wise attractive. AU needs to make sure their GDP numbers retain and grow in the future to easily reach 5,000 level.

Medium Term: Sideways. Need to breakout the 4400 resistance to return to 4650 , 4750 then 5000

Short Term: Immediate support at 4250, but has a chance to revisit the sideways support at 4100, 4000. Accumulate near 4250, and stop when it breaks down, accumulate again at 4000-4100.

HK gained 20% already since the start of 2012. And the negative divergence seen on the daily chart suggests that correction is coming, at 9X P/E, its still one of the cheapest and easiest to trade in Asia.

Medium Term: Strong Medium Term uptrend support at 19.8k. Still in long term downtrend.

Short Term: In correction mode, first light support at 20.6k, then start accumuating near 19.8k support.

China may have bottomed, and had a soft landing, 2012 forecasted GDP is at 7.5%, and still spectacular compared to European Cities with GDP of less than 0.5%. at 13.5x, this could help HK to be back soon into 22k or 24k levels.

Long Term: May started to Uptrend

Short Term: immediate support at 2350-2400. If it hit below, may resume short term dowtrend.


SG is now at 9x P/E. Attractive enough to buy into dips. Economy in this country is intact, and poised to grow slowly in terms of GDP numbers.

Long Term: Downtrend to Sideways

Short Term: Uptrend and in correction, 1st light support at 2900, then 2780. If it falls below 2780, can be said as Longterm/Shortterm overall dowtrend.

Korea now at 16.5x, slightly higher compared to other peers, Charts look good and in long term uptrend.

Short Term: 1st support at 1930, then 1850 uptrend support. If it falls below, its a completely different story.

DAX and FTSE now in same pattern, the most important happening last week was DAX and FTSE failed to breakout of their initial long term resistance at 7000 and 6000 respectively. Both are at 10x P/E Ratio, individual companies are earning good, very attractive, but GDP nears recession like levels below 0.0%. An immediate Default will turn these countries to downside. Avoid for the meantime.

Long Term/Medium Term: Downtrend and failed to be back to 52-week highs.

Short Term: DAX : 6400 immediate, then 6000 uptrend support. A visit below means breakdown.

FTSE: 5600-5700 immediate, then 5500 uptrend support.

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