Sunday, October 21, 2012

Germany, Dow, Australia, Nasdaq and HK status update 10-22-2012


Germany is still in the spiral of temptation to breakout above its 5 yr downtrend lines. It has been a month already hovering around the resistance levels. We also had a warning signal on its weekly charts, activating a warning of RSI > 70, the 1st time to get into this level for 2012, last was Q1 2011 where quick selloff happened after the incident.

Watch for more price action, either:
   Breakout above 7400
   Selloff back to 7000,then 6600.


S&P made a new 52 week high last Mid September, and a warning of RSI >70 popped up also,for the daily charts. After hitting that high, S&P went to a sideways to down pattern on hourly charts, but is still in uptrend for Short Term with support at 1430.

Elliot Wave count suggests that the 52 week high could be a the end of Major Wave 3 of Primary Wave III, or just a minor wave 1 of the current Major Wave 3 of Primary Wave III rally. Both ways suggest a result of correction, that might ended already at 1433, or will continue to correct further if it goes down below 1430.

Short Term: Uptrend, but threating a breakdown. A BUY when S&P revisits 1380 levels. Wait for more price actions.
Medium-Long Term: Uptrend




Hong Kong rallied the most in Asia with 16% since June. And still could be the underperforming market together with China(-20% for 2012) all over the Globe. HangSeng revisited its 2012 high at 21500-22000, and has a barricade of strong resistance levels in that area. If it can break through with the 2012 highs, it can reach 22800 for the medium term downtrend resistance. RSI now at 75, overbought level.

Short Term: Uptrend but overheating
Long Term: Sideways




NASDAQ showing symptoms that more selloffs could be coming, NASDAQ recently sold off too much that it broke down its short-medium term uptrend line, that could lead to 2950 initial support.





Australia had its best rally since 2010. Gaining 12% in 4 months time. And the very first time to reach an overbought RSI at 76 since 2010. There are many resistance levels on 4600,4650,4700,4750 before it can revisit 5000 level(2011 highs). The negative MACD Divergence is telling that short term may be it,and correction is coming.

Short Term: Uptrend but overheating
Long Term: Sideways






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