Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Tips on this Downturn Index, and Banks Long term support 6-5-2013

Philippine Index fell off sharply since it peaked at 7400. As of today noon, it is at 6584. Around 11.1% decline since the peak. I personally awaited this long (6mos) just to see our market "correct sharply" in order to be healthy. And now we are in this scenario, there are still opportunities and dont let others make you panic or tell you what to do. Congratulations to those who earned a lot and was able to collect their gains, and for those who's gains are swept off, hopefully this could be a learning lesson for us in the future.

Some tips I want to give is that:

First, just relax, our Economy is still strong, and maybe the strongest in Asia, having 7.8% GDP QoQ, equal or higher to China's GDP.
Second, this correction is probably brought by many concerns:
      - High P/E Value at 23.0
      - Steep 35% rally for the past 12months
      - Overvaluation is set in place
      - Correction in US could really be coming
Third, We dont want to waste our bullets(money) for now, take time to slowly get into the markets, as much as possible, stay closest to the supports, and dont buy into breakouts, as breakouts sometime are falsely made by Big Traders.
Fourth, Decide on your own, its your money, and dont let any Insurance, friends or even family tie you up saying they gained 20% in just 6 months.
Fifth, there is no investment in this world that returns double digit STRAIGHT in 5 or 10years, eventually there will be times that correction or sideways pattern will YIELD to investments.
Lastly, Do not put your eggs in one basket, separate them, not into different stocks, but into different investments like ROP, Cash, MMF, TD or even different currency. Cash is still king, and Japanese people nowadays preserve 50% of their Cash in banks, since they got traumatized with their Economy's collapse since 1990s that wasnt able to get back to their highs. Life is a cycle, dont blame other people, learn from it and decide on your own.

For this post, we focus on Philippine Banks, attached 5yr trendlines and most are Uptrend, possibly BUY into strongest support and if you bought early, make sure you still have money to average into next Supports. Long term Supports like below tend to hold 90% all the time when Economy globally is OK, so find your own target supports. Goodluck!





No comments:

Post a Comment