Over the past few weeks, we are anticipating US correction for a couple of weeks or months. And just around mid August, we have confirmed that we are in a major correction in US, we initially advised people that correction could be as deep as 5-12%, and the 'a' leg has been a massive 5% decline in just less than 2 weeks. Now, we could be in a 'b' wave counter rally before a final 'c' wave decline could end this correction.
Elliot wave suggests that we are already in the Major Wave 4 correction of Primary Wave III. Remember the series of Waves we have (Primary, Major, Intermediate then Minor).
And I am overwhelmed on the outcome of our dotted line few weeks ago, it exactly did happen based on the dotted forecast :) clap clap! But sad to say, I didnt follow myself, and got stuck some of my portfolio, guess need to be confident now with my 5years experience in equities/bonds/stocks etc trading.
After a counter rally to maybe around 1660-1670, and based on the length of wave 'a'. we expect another continuation of selloff that can reach as low as 1540 to 1600. (8-12% from the top).
Talking about ASPAC, selloffs already reach levels to say that we are in the Bear Market territory (20% correction or more). Indonesia tops the selloff in terms of percentage at around 26% as of Aug 27,2013. Thailand ranks 2nd and PH lands at 3rd at 20%.
Last 2 weeks ago, I have posted that double dip to 5800 level raised to 50%, the drop was too fast and our ASPAC neighbors already did a new low, so I can roughly say that a potential new low could be set in PH soon!
Estimating the drop of Indonesia (below charts), which gapped down and killed everybody with another 10% decline from its June lows could also be happening in PH (if PH do not hold on it's June lows)
On the brighter side, we don't expect PSE to get below 5k soon. Here are some of the reasons:
- DOW is expected to end its correction with another 5-7% decline.
- Jakarta is 4-5% from its 4year bull market support
- PH which was the most expensive in Asia back in Q1, was beaten by AU at 22x.
- Good amount of supports around 5400-5600, but may not be too strong.
- Blue chips, mostly banks are near their 4yr bull market support.
- and lastly, PSE's most important 4yr uptrend support is at 5181.
Worst thing to happen in this correction is to be able to meet 5181, no less than that !! else, real bear market starts.
Some stocks that are in a critical stage and must hold into their 4yr uptrend lines support to avoid another set of selloff: BDO (67),PNB(67), MBT(89), FGEN(16), SECB(115) and SM(670).
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