As discussed 2 weeks ago, http://theamazingchart.blogspot.com/2014/02/spx-important-3-scenarios-forecast-both.html, we are having 3 possible elliot wave counts. We laid down 3 possible scenarios and predicted that a good bounce is due after hitting 1730 lows.
It did bounce! But the bounce was so impulsive that many Elliotisticians need to just again the count, including me and the least probability became today's leading count. It exceeded the 31.8%-50% retracement, and now at 78.6% or more.
Overall, the global markets seem to be having these probability:
Medium term uptrend - 50% (increased from 20%)
Medium term downtrend - 50%
SCENARIO #1 (50%) - Bullish scenario, what we had was just correction
This scenario was the least thing people thought in the past weeks, yet market spooked everyone with the unexpected rallies, and many of us need to change counts.
Things happened quite fast and after the 6.4% correction of SPX, it rallied 5.7% in just less than 2 weeks. minor waves are also counted as 1-2-3 and we are in the 3.
This scenario will eventually hit new highs with targets of:
int i = int 5 = 1850-1860
int i 1.318 = 1860-1870
int i 1.618 = 1900
After that, let us see where would the count bring us.
SCENARIO #2 (25% chance) - slightly bearish correction, and we are just in the Major Wave 4 before a 5 new high.
This scenario is still in since SPX and DOW have not touched and revisited the all time high yet.
Will give it a small chance that we could be in a minor b before a minor c that will completely end Major Wave 4 of Int wave IV of Primary Wave III. With a target downside of 1650 then a final high (Major Wave 5 of Primary Wave III) that could bring us to 2178.
SCENARIO #3 (25%) - Bearish scenario, Primary Wave III in, and Primary Wave IV is in place
After SPX retraced 78.6% or more, majority of the people became bullish again and getting less confident that this count is not in place anymore.
I still see this scenario a probable one with 25% chance happening since SPX and DOW did not revisit its all time high yet and we only have 3 waves up as of this moment.
Due to strong rally of the possible Major b of Primary Wave IV, the downside target of Primary Wave IV is not so far from what we projected last time.
Major wave c = a = 1700-1720
Major wave c = 1.618a = 1650-1670
That's life, charts and theories are here for us to have guides and not to persuade the markets. Use them wisely, put your selling targets and cut loss levels and expect the unexpected.
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