Sunday, December 14, 2014

Oil nose dives. 26pesos per liter of Diesel price, highly probable 12-15-2015


































WTIC did another nasty dive and broke below important supports. Although this could be already in the bottoming process, long candles which typically could reverse anytime. We should also discuss what other problems it could encounter if WTIC stays below these levels.

Saudi and Russia are widely known to have a lot of oil deposits and oil exports is one of their income generating for GDP. Now that WTIC has fallen almost 50% of the price since 2011 or 2013. It could really make a big effect, especially for Russia,who had a bad record last 1998 when it's country's debt defaulted, Oil slump that time was also one of the reasons they were not able to pay off their debt,then coincided with 2000 tech bubble.

I believe 50s level is an important support, and a breakeven cost to oil explorers. U.S. got a lot of production which lessened their Oil imports. It could be an oversupply, but it could also be a political strategy by the US and Oil traders.

Consumers will GREATLY benefit from this, but thinking on a bigger picture, when we revisit 33USD (2009 lows), a lot of Countries and Corporate debt will default. Which could spark the next recession. Just saying....

Diesel price estimates for the Philippines

58USD x 44.50 USD/peso = 2581 / 119.24= 21.64pesos/liter X additional 20-30% profit/margin = 26-28 pesos per liter of Diesel, highly probable.

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