Wednesday, March 11, 2015

USD index hits 12 year high, all other currencies lost 10-20% so far 3-12-2015


USD continues to get stronger making all other major currencies weak. Eur traded to 1.05xx yesterday, making it's 12 year low.

The main reason why USD getting stronger is that, US economy continues to get stronger, and fuel of interest rate hike this year makes USD value attractive, and EUR bond buying starts this month until mid 2016. Bond buying usually is "printing new money", making new paper money spread around the country, losing its valuation.

Although USD index is in bull market, I see strong resistance at the 100 mark, it is where 30 year downtrend resistance since 1985 is. I think, based on charts, a possible pullback may happen soon, OR once it breaks out of 100, we can see medium term USD making 15yr or 20yr highs.

EUR Parity is also 80% probably since ECB announced its 60B bond buying. A fall below 1:1 is also 50% probable due to European problems like Greece default etc.



JPY weakening, which intentionally caused by Japanese government to boost their economy is also taking place. It just reached 8yr high vs USD, making it attractive to import goods from Japan.

*elliotwavepredictions.com

Australian Dollar 35 year chart

Canadian Dollar 35 year chart 

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